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The NASCAR Cup Series concludes November 9 at Phoenix Raceway, where the initial 16 playoff drivers are narrowed to four championship contenders.
Since becoming the championship venue, Phoenix Raceway has set the stage for NASCAR’s premier showdown. Its unique one-mile, low-banked oval demands precision and strategy.
The track often rewards patience over pure speed. Last year, Joey Logano captured his third championship here, elevating his performance under the highest pressure.
Kyle Larson of Hendrick Motorsports led championship odds most of the season, despite a winless stretch of over four months.
As the playoffs neared, Denny Hamlin of Joe Gibbs Racing—holder of most Cup Series wins without a title—rose to co-favorite and briefly became the sole favorite. Even after leading the points into the round of 12, the betting odds shifted again.
Larson returned as co-favorite, tied with Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney at +300 odds, while Hamlin dropped to +500.
The landscape shifted again when Blaney won the round of 12 opener at New Hampshire, securing his fifth straight round of 8 berth and becoming the new championship favorite for 2025.
Check out the latest NASCAR betting lines. All our odds are from the best NASCAR betting sites. For more information about the Cup Series, check out our guide on how to bet on NASCAR.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds
| Racer |  |  |  |
| Ryan Blaney | +350 | +300 | +350 |
| Kyle Larson | +500 | +400 | +400 |
| Denny Hamlin | +500 | +400 | +500 |
| Christopher Bell | +500 | +400 | +500 |
| William Byron | +575 | +400 | +600 |
| Chase Briscoe | +950 | +1000 | +900 |
| Chase Elliott | +1100 | +1000 | +1200 |
| Joey Logano | +1400 | +1500 | +1200 |
| Ross Chastain | +2500 | +2500 | +3000 |
| Tyler Reddick | +2800 | +3000 | +2500 |
| Bubba Wallace | +2800 | +2500 | +3000 |
| Austin Cindric | +2800 | +2500 | +3000 |
Ryan Blaney
Blaney’s status as defending champion is well earned, having finished second overall in 2024 with three wins, 12 top-five finishes, and 18 top-10s.
Renowned for elevating his performance in elimination rounds, Blaney’s recent victory at New Hampshire marked his third win of the season and showcased the clutch ability that propelled him to the 2023 title.
Now in his eighth straight playoff appearance with Team Penske, Blaney has displayed exceptional resilience throughout his 2024 title defense.
Ryan Blaney leading the series in Top 5’s with 7 DNF’s is ABSURD pic.twitter.com/40vm9pWH3M
— Peyton (@TowryPeyton) September 22, 2025
His strategic team support and personal experience under pressure make him a serious contender for back-to-back championships.
With a championship pedigree, timely momentum, and a balance of speed and composure, Blaney is favored for a reason. I would wager on Blaney to win this again.
Denny Hamlin
Despite falling from favorite status, Hamlin’s championship window remains tantalizingly open. At 44, this represents one of Hamlin’s best title chances yet.
Ryan Blaney got hot at the right time to win the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series championship, though the pressure intensifies for Hamlin with each passing season.
Hamlin’s 54 career Cup Series wins make him the most accomplished active driver without a championship, a distinction that weighs heavily as opportunities dwindle.
NASCAR Cup Series Pole Award Leaderboard (Active Drivers):
46- Denny Hamlin
36- Jimmie Johnson
34- Kyle Busch
33- Joey Logano
18- Brad Keselowski pic.twitter.com/F1vVGgfH2F— Talkin’ NASCAR (@TalkinNASCAR) September 24, 2025
The midseason penalty that cost Joe Gibbs Racing 75 points and 10 playoff points created an uphill battle; yet, Hamlin’s three victories in 2025 and 19 top-10 finishes proved that his speed remains elite.
His experience in clutch moments and his raw talent, which have consistently produced excellence throughout his career, make him a dangerous player.
I like Hamlin’s chances here, and would also bet on him to win his FIRST Cup Championship.
Kyle Larson
Larson’s championship credentials remain undeniable despite his recent slide in odds. In 2024, he led the series in wins (six), finished sixth overall, and posted 15 top-five and 18 top-10 finishes, according to official NASCAR statistics.
The 2021 Cup champion has demonstrated remarkable resilience throughout his career, bouncing back from adversity with explosive speed that can change championship dynamics overnight.
His playoff performance included wins at Bristol and Charlotte’s Roval and five top-five finishes, further showcasing his ability to elevate his game under pressure.
"Is that the moment that derails Denny Hamlin's 2025 championship?" @KevinHarvick's thoughts on Hamlin vs. Ty Gibbs at New Hampshire. pic.twitter.com/7KUDoKfaZr
— HarvickHappyHour (@HarvickHappyPod) September 23, 2025
While his Memorial Day Double attempt created a mid-season lull, Larson’s raw talent and Hendrick Motorsports’ championship-caliber resources make him perpetually dangerous.
Since 2021, the 32-time Cup winner has qualified for the playoffs in each season, as confirmed by NASCAR records. This underlines the winning pedigree and championship experience that keep him in title conversations, regardless of current betting odds.
As talented as Larson is, I would pass on him here in favor of some of the other drivers.
Christopher Bell
Christopher Bell’s 2024 season displayed his elite potential and the challenges of NASCAR’s elimination format. Bell earned three wins and reached Round 8 for the third consecutive year, demonstrating remarkable consistency at the sport’s highest level.
His 7.1 average finish in the 2024 playoffs was the best postseason performance in recent memory, which placed him among NASCAR’s elite performers when the stakes were highest.
However, Bell was eliminated from Championship 4 contention after a last-lap move at Martinsville was deemed a “safety violation,” ending his title hopes despite his strong statistics.
As a Joe Gibbs Racing driver, Bell’s ability to excel under pressure makes him a constant threat; however, missing another Championship 4 opportunity highlights the narrow line between triumph and disappointment in modern NASCAR.
These prices don’t offer too much value, I would have to pass on wagering on Bell here as well.
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