Downtime in the Nascar season gives us the chance to take stock and look at what’s happened in more detail, and also how the rest of the season could pan out.
One thing to come to my attention during this period from a betting point of view is that by getting carried away with Kyle Larson and his Hendrick Motorsports team, we may be overlooking better value elsewhere.
In short, the Joe Gibbs Racing team!
|Nascar Cup Series Winner Betting|
|Martin Truex Jr||+800||+800|
Seven of the tracks to be used in the playoffs have already hosted Cup Series races this season, and at those tracks, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr have had a far superior average running position than their Hendrick rivals.
Hamlin has an average running position of 6.3, while Truex Jr has an average of 6.7.
At the same courses, Chase Elliott has an average running position of 11.4. While his teammate and Cup Series favorite, Kyle Larson has an even worse average running position of 13.3.
Could this be significant? Quite possibly, yes.
From this information, we can only conclude that JGR is putting a strong emphasis on play-off tracks, and they may already have stolen a march on their rivals with their set up of the car.
Is Joe Gibbs Racing already one step ahead of the opposition?
These stats make a strong case for shifting focus onto JGR drivers, particularly Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr.
But not so fast. Is there a downside to the Gibbs Racing drivers?
One huge negative with Hamlin is that he hasn’t managed to win a Cup Series race yet this season.
The same can’t be said of Truex Jr though, as he has three wins to his name. That’s just one win behind Cup Series favorite, Kyle Larson.
If Denny Hamlin is to come good, the +800 available on him at Bovada to win outright would be very good value. But is Hamlin as good value as his JGR teammate, Truex Jr?
Probably not, is my view. The two drivers are neck and neck in the betting at +800, but as I alluded to above, Martin Truex Jr has three Cup Series race wins to his name this season.
Couple that forms with the fact that JGR seems to have Truex Jr’s Toyota set up better on the tracks to be used at some of the playoff venues, and you start to see a case emerging for the man from New Jersey.
Then dig deeper down still, and you will find that Truex Jr’s three wins came at Darlington, Martinsville, and Phoenix. You’ve guessed it, all playoff tracks.
The combination of Truex Jr’s performance (he already has 19 play-off points) and his potential to perform well at plenty of the playoff tracks, makes him excellent value at +800.
How have the Nascar Odds changed throughout the Season?
Looking back across the season, and the Nascar betting odds of Truex Jr to win the championship have hardly changed. He started the season at +750, and he’s now +800. So, he’s slightly drifted.
Of his teammate at Joe Gibbs Racing, Denny Hamlin has also seen his odds pretty much stagnated. Hamlin started the season at +700 and is now also at +800. Showing that Nascar punters aren’t convinced.
Moving onto the Hendrick Motorsports guys, and let’s have a look at the current Cup Series favorite.
Kyle Larson started the season at +1100, and he is now just +260, showing a massive change in his odds.
Larson’s form is no secret. He has four Cup Series wins to his name already, and he sits top of the Projected Play-Off Rank and is only 13 points behind Hamlin in the Nascar Cup Series standings.
Such has been the impressive level of performance, Hendrick Motorsports have rewarded Larson with a contract extension.
Larson’s teammate at Hendrick, Chase Elliott is another driver who has seen little change to his title odds over the season.
Elliott started at +750 and now finds himself at +600 or +650, depending on which sportsbook you are using.
Elliott has two Cup Series wins to his name this season, and with a projected playoff position of 5, he can’t be discounted.
Ready to be back pic.twitter.com/spEBMkWfBr
— Chase Elliott (@chaseelliott) July 29, 2021
When do the Nascar Play-Offs start?
The playoffs get underway in September, with the first of three Round of 16 races taking place at Darlington Raceway on 5th September.
There are a total of 10 playoff races, including the season finale at Phoenix on November 7th, where the champion driver will be crowned.
Before the playoffs start, there are still four regular-season races to go. All four races take place in August, and there is still plenty that can happen in that time.
The first of the four races kick off at the GLEN on 8th August. The Go Bowling at the Glen is a 90 lap race, held in New York. This will be the 38th Cup Series race at the Glen.
For the record, the defending champion is Chase Elliott.
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