Dean Etheridge
There’s just one race remaining for driver’s to lock in their spot for the season ending Championship 4 race, and with seven drivers still looking for the remaining three places we look at the betting and name our free NASCAR betting picks for the Xfinity 500.
Chase Elliott has been the best driver this season. I don’t think anybody can dispute that. Elliott has the most wins of any driver (5), and he’s been the favorite to win his second Cup Series title with the best NASCAR betting sites since taking over from Kyle Larson halfway through the season.
But with just one race left to get qualify for Phoenix, Elliott still isn’t assured of his position.
Championship 4 Qualifying; The current situation
So let’s have a recap of the current situation with regards to qualifying for the Championship 4 race at Phoenix on November 6th.
Heading into the final qualifying race, only Joey Logano of Team Penske has qualified.
Joey is in. #Championship4 pic.twitter.com/4Mkr4iW8u2
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 16, 2022
Logano won back at Las Vegas a couple of Sunday’s back to confirm his spot. Currently sitting in the final three qualifying positions are Ross Chastain (-5), Chase Elliott (-13), and William Byron (-18).
The four drivers outside of the qualifying positions are Denny Hamlin (-24), Ryan Blaney (-37), Christopher Bell (-52), and Chase Briscoe (-63).
This promises to make Sunday’s race all the more exciting. Do the drivers go for the win that guarantees them a spot at Phoenix? Or do those that can, play it safe and go for the points needed to get them through?
Sitting in eighth place, Chase Briscoe basically doesn’t have that choice. It’s win or bust for him, and that’s reflected in the betting to be Cup Series champion driver.
At the moment Bovada and the best sportsbooks seem to have it down as a five way fight to win the title. Elliott is the favorite at +160, he is followed by Joey Logano at +240, Ross Chastain at +400, Denny Hamlin (+550), and William Byron (+700).
After those five you can get +3300 on Ryan Blaney, +8000 on Christopher Bell, and +15000 on Briscoe. These odds are provided by Bovada, who you can read more about at our Bovada sportsbook review.
Right, now let’s take a look at the upcoming race and name our NASCAR betting picks.
Xfinity 500; All you need to know
The Xfinity 500 is the oldest race on the NASCAR calendar. It’s traditionally held at falls every year and is currently the final race of qualifying for the Championship 4 race. This gives the race prestige, and makes it a showpiece event on the NASCAR roster.
- What; Xfinity 500
- Where; Martinsville Speedway, Ridgeway, Virginia
- When; Sunday, October 30th, 2022
- Green Flag; 2 pm ET
- Laps; 500
- Distance; 423 KM (263 Miles)
The circuit is 0.84 km long (just over half a mile), and is asphalt consisting of four turns. Last year the race was won by Alex Bowman of Hendrick Motorsports, and the previous year by Chase Elliott – the season he was Cup Series Champion (if you believe in omans).
And it’s relevant that a Hendrick driver has won this race seven times in the last ten years. Although, only twice in the last five, but that was in the last two years.
Chase Elliott leads the pack with the NASCAR betting sites, he is +550 with BetOnline. The same sportsbook has Denny Hamlin next at +700, presumably because in fifth place in the standings, Hamlin will go all out for the win.
Hamlin finished seventh last weekend at Homestead, with Elliott down in 14th place. The race was won (and dominated) by Kyle Larson.
CHECKERED FLAG: Larson dominates at @HomesteadMiami! 🏁🏁🏁
@KyleLarsonRacin leads 199 laps for his third win of the season! pic.twitter.com/IkxRnGIAS2
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 23, 2022
Unfortunately for the defending champ, it was too little too late as far as the Championship 4 race goes. Anyway, full betting for the Xfinity 500 can be found below.
| Xfinity 500 Winner Betting |  |  |
| Chase Elliott | +550 | +525 |
| Denny Hamlin | +700 | +675 |
| Ryan Blaney | +700 | +725 |
| Joey Logano | +800 | +1000 |
| William Byron | +800 | +900 |
| Martin Truex Jr | +1000 | +1200 |
| Kyle Larson | +1200 | +900 |
| Kyle Busch | +1400 | +1200 |
| Ross Chastain | +1400 | +1100 |
| Christopher Bell | +1400 | +1200 |
| Kevin Harvick | +1600 | +1500 |
| Tyler Reddick | +2800 | +2500 |
| Austin Dillon | +2800 | +2800 |
Xfinity 500 Betting Picks
As we mentioned above, how will the drivers still in the hunt for the Cup Series approach this race? We know that Chase Briscoe and most probably Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell will be looking for the win. But what of the other five?
Well, racing drivers don’t get this far in their careers without having a desire to win, and I believe all of the other five will also be looking for the top position on the podium.
Yes, if late in the race all a driver needs to do is get around without incident to qualify, I’m sure he will adapt his tactics. So we do need to take that into consideration when making our NASCAR betting picks. But for now, we’ll assume everybody is looking to win.
Chase Elliott +550
When it comes to the crunch the big guns have a habit of turning up, and I think that’s maybe what we will see from Chase Elliott this weekend. As I mentioned at the start of the article, Elliott has been the best driver all season. His Hendrick team has been good at this circuit recently as well, so I make Chase Elliott my first pick to win the Xfinity 500.
Martin Truex Jr +1000
One driver who isn’t concerned by tactics is Martin Truex Jr (although team orders could come into play if Hamlin or Bell need assisting). The Joe Gibbs driver has won here in three of his last six races, so he knows this course well and is worth an outside bet at odds of +1000.
