Denny Hamlin favorite to play the best hand in Las Vegas this weekend

This Sunday sees the start of Round 8 in the Cup Series playoffs. The points leader is Chase Elliott, and here we look at his chances of winning again in our free NASCAR betting picks.

Last weekend was extraordinary. Even by the standards of this year’s crazy championship. Four drivers were eliminated, including the defending champion Kyle Larson. But that doesn’t tell half the story of what happened at the Bank of America Roval 400 at Charlotte last weekend.

The race winner was Christopher Bell. Bell and his Joe Gibbs Racing team took advantage of circumstances that allowed them to make a strategic pit stop under caution, and the tactical move led to Bell using his fresh tires to pass Kevin Harvick and win the race.

The win was the only route available for Bell to make it into Round 8. In getting through, Bell joined Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Ross Chastain, and Chase Briscoe in the next stage.

Eliminated at Charlotte was Austin Cindric, Daniel Suárez, Tyler Reddick, and Kyle Larson. As the defending Cup Series champion, Larson must be bitterly disappointed at the manner of his elimination.

The 2021 winner pulled no punches, choosing to take full responsibility for his performances this season. After the race, Larson said “I just made way too many mistakes all year long.” And it’s hard to argue with that.

Throughout the first part of the season, Larson was the favorite to retain the Cup Series. Gradually punters lost faith with him, and he started to drift in the odds with the best NASCAR betting sites.

It seemed like we were continually waiting for Larson to come good. But it just never happened.

Who is favorite to win the 2022 Cup Series?

Chase Elliott is still the favorite to win the 2022 Cup Series, but after the events of last Sunday his odds have shortened. Before Charlotte, the championship points leader was +225. Now Chase Elliott is just +170 to win his second Cup Series title.

Behind Elliott, there has been a lot of change. Second favorite Denny Hamlin is still +450, but after him, third favorite Joey Logano has drifted from +500, to +700. With the elimination of Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain is now fourth in the betting at +800.

Ryan Blaney has also been a big drifter in the betting. He was +600 last week, and now finds himself at +900, the same price as William Byron and Christopher Bell. Chase Briscoe is miles behind the rest at +2500.

South Point 400; All you need to know

This is the first of the three Round of 8 playoff races. The venue is the Las Vegas Motor Speedway course, a 1.5 mile long tri-oval circuit.

  • What; South Point 400
  • Where; Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Las Vegas, Nevada
  • When; Sunday, October 16th, 2022
  • Time; 2.30 pm ET
  • Laps; 267
  • Distance; 400 Miles

Denny Hamlin won here last season, and his win was the second time a Joe Gibbs Racing driver has won the race recently. Martin Truex Jr also won here in 2019.

And it’s thanks to the record of Joe Gibbs Racing that Denny Hamlin is the +500 betting favorite to win in Vegas this weekend. Hamlin is favorite just ahead of Chase Elliott (+800), Kyle Larson (+800), Christopher Bell (+800), Ross Chastain (+900), and Tyler Reddick (+900).

It’s a very open race from a betting perspective, as Martin Truex Jr and Kyle Busch aren’t far behind in the betting, both at +1000.

Full betting odds can be found below, with the odds supplied by BetOnline. More information about this bookmaker can be found at our BetOnline sportsbook review.

South Point 400 Winner BettingBetOnline ReviewBovada Review
Denny Hamlin+500+475
Chase Elliott+800+775
Kyle Larson+800+775
Christopher Bell+800+900
Tyler Reddick+900+900
Ross Chastain+900+950
Kyle Busch+1000+1100
Martin Truex Jr+1000+1000
Ryan Blaney+1100+1100
William Byron+1100+1200
Bubba Wallace+1400+1500
Joey Logano+1600+1600
Chase Briscoe+2800+2000
Kevin Harvick+2800+2500
Daniel Suarez+2800+2500

South Point 400 Betting Picks

It’s no surprise to see the likes of Hamlin, Bell, Kyle Busch, and even Martin Truex Jr featuring heavily in the betting odds to win this weekend. But do any of them make good NASCAR betting picks?

Personally, I think that the Joe Gibbs Racing team can’t be ignored. They have a good record at this circuit, and as both Hamlin and Bell have shown in recent weeks, they’re in decent form as well.

But the fact that the top NASCAR betting sites have Elliott and Larson in the top three in the betting suggests it’s not just a closed book on a Joe Gibbs Racing win. So, I’m going to make a couple of selections this weekend.

I am starting with a Joe Gibbs driver, and the name is Denny Hamlin. Like with a lot of our picks lately, there are times when a guy is just an obvious pick, and I think Hamlin again fits that description this weekend. So with his good form of late, and at this circuit, I make Denny Hamlin my first betting pick.

Denny HamlinTo Win South Point 400
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I’m also picking Kyle Larson to win this weekend. I think it will be just like Larson to go out with a point to prove and win the next race. I think Larson is also good value at +800, the guy hasn’t become a bad driver overnight.

Kyle LarsonTo Win South Point 400
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Finally, Tyler Reddick. Reddick is another driver who has been in good form of late, and at +900, I don’t think Reddick can be ignored either.

Tyler ReddickTo Win South Point 400
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Dean Etheridge

Hailing from Coventry, England, Dean brings his British wit to every piece he pens. A true lover of a good wager, Dean's passion for both sports and writing has merged into the world of sports betting. Dean is the mastermind behind his very own soccer and cricket betting platforms. As the owner and editor of a renowned football betting website, Dean has established himself as a force within the industry. His expertise as a freelance content writer is centered in the realms of football, cricket and Formula 1. From breaking down odds to unraveling strategies, Dean's writing radiates an unmatched love for sports. When he’s not immersed in sports betting, Dean enjoyes exploring new culinary delights, conquering the latest car racing video games, or getting lost in the pages of a novel.