Thunder Rule NBA Cup Odds as Spurs Quietly Emerge as Dark Horse

  • What: 2025 Emirates NBA Cup
  • When: Dec 13-16, 2025
  • Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV

The NBA Cup’s final four converges on Las Vegas this Saturday as the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Orlando Magic, and New York Knicks battle for the tournament’s third championship at T-Mobile Arena.

In the Eastern Conference semifinal, the Magic face the Knicks in what promises to be a defensive slugfest. Orlando rallied from a 15-point first-quarter deficit to defeat Miami in the quarterfinals, while New York dispatched Toronto convincingly. Both teams finished group play undefeated, setting up this highly anticipated showdown.

The nightcap Western Conference matchup features the juggernaut Thunder against the upstart Spurs. Oklahoma City enters as the overwhelming favorite after crushing Phoenix by 49 points and improving to a historic 24-1 record, tying the 2015-16 Warriors for the best 25-game start in NBA history. San Antonio, led by Stephon Castle’s 30-point quarterfinal performance, defeated the Lakers without Victor Wembanyama, though his return for the semifinals remains possible.

The championship game follows Tuesday, December 16th, at 8:30 PM ET on Prime Video. Players on the winning team each earn over $500,000, while runners-up pocket approximately $200,000 apiece.

A new champion will be crowned in Sin City. Below are the NBA betting lines from three of the best NBA Basketball betting sites.

2025 Emirates NBA Cup Odds

TeamsBetOnline Sportsbook & Casino Review 2025BetUS Sportsbook Review 2025Bovada Sportsbook Review 2025
OKC Thunder-260-250-250
New York Knicks+400+400+450
San Antonio Spurs+950+950+900
Orlando Magic+1000+1000+900

OKC Thunder

For Oklahoma City, this represents a chance at redemption after last season’s heartbreak in Las Vegas.

The Thunder fell to Milwaukee 97-81 in the 2024 NBA Cup finals, shooting a dismal 5-of-32 from three-point range in a game that was never truly close after halftime. That loss stung for a young team trying to establish itself as a legitimate contender.

Now, with an even more dominant squad and riding a 16-game winning streak, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company return to the same T-Mobile Arena court seeking their first NBA Cup title. The Thunder are -250 favorites, and their suffocating defense combined with explosive offense makes them the clear team to beat in this year’s tournament.

While the Thunder most likely win the NBA Cup, I would pass on paying the -250 price on it.

OKC ThunderTO WIN 2025 EMIRATES NBA CUP
★★★★★
-250
Bet now

New York Knicks

The Knicks arrive in Las Vegas riding their own wave of momentum, winners of eight of their last nine games. After struggling on the road early in the season, New York has found its identity behind the brilliance of Jalen Brunson, who torched Toronto for 35 points in the quarterfinals, including 20 in the opening quarter alone.

The duo of Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns gives the Knicks the star power necessary to compete for a championship, while Josh Hart’s all-around contributions provide crucial depth. New York has failed to advance past the quarterfinals in the tournament’s first two years, losing to Milwaukee in 2023 and Atlanta in 2024.

This semifinal matchup against Orlando, whom they just defeated on Sunday, represents their best opportunity yet to break through and reach the NBA Cup finals.

The Knicks at +450 is a great bet to win the NBA Cup, I could see them pulling off an upset and at those odds it’s definitely worth taking a shot.

New York KnicksTO WIN 2025 EMIRATES NBA CUP
★★★★★
+450
Bet now

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs represent the ultimate wild card in Las Vegas.

Despite playing without Victor Wembanyama for nearly a month due to a calf strain, San Antonio has thrived behind the emergence of Stephon Castle, who became just the third player in franchise history to record 30 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists in a game before turning 22, joining Tim Duncan and Wembanyama himself.

The fourth overall pick in the 2024 draft erupted for 30 points on 10-of-14 shooting against the Lakers, breaking San Antonio’s 14-game losing streak against Luka Dončić-led teams.

Coach Mitch Johnson indicated there’s “very much” a chance Wembanyama returns for the Thunder matchup after completing five-on-five work in practice. If the French phenom suits up, the Spurs suddenly become dangerous underdogs with legitimate upset potential against a Thunder team they’ll be eager to challenge.

Another dark horse that’s a great bet at +950 to win this tournament, if Wembanyama returns, you’re getting tremendous value at this price. 

San Antonio SpursTO WIN 2025 EMIRATES NBA CUP
★★★★★
+950
Bet now

Orlando Magic

Orlando brings its own compelling storyline despite facing adversity. The Magic will compete without leading scorer Franz Wagner, who’s expected to miss two to four weeks with a high ankle sprain.

However, Orlando has proven remarkably resilient, boasting an impressive 11-3 all-time record in NBA Cup games. Desmond Bane’s spectacular 37-point performance against Miami, including 15 fourth-quarter points, showcased the Magic’s depth and determination.

With Paolo Banchero recently returning from injury and defensive stalwarts Jalen Suggs and Wendell Carter Jr. anchoring a suffocating defense, Orlando has the defensive identity and “smashmouth basketball” mentality to grind out victories against elite competition.

The Magic have a great team, I think they’re ahead of schedule and overmatched against these teams and would pass on them to win the NBA Cup.

Orlando MagicTO WIN 2025 EMIRATES NBA CUP
★★★★★
+1000
Bet now

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Tony Reyes

Tony is a pro sports journalist who dedicates most of his free time to watching the latest matches and games on TV. When he's not participating in sports-related activities or seeing his friends, Tony enjoys outdoor activities such as hiking, cycling, and basketball. In addition to being a sports expert, Tony has extensive knowledge of finances and accou...

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