This year’s NBA All-Star break is a long one. The Association doesn’t return to action until Thursday. When it does, will you be able to ID which squads are the best bets going forward? As much as knowing top coaches and players is helpful, looking at betting trends and other metrics can help unlock winning strategies.
The Bulls have the worst record against the spread in the league. They are 19-33 ATS including 9-17 at home. They covered four straight in early January, and two straight mid-December, but those are their only back-to-back ATS wins all year. They’ve currently lost four straight, six of seven, and 14 of their last 18 against the number. Don’t expect the Bulls to keep losing against the spread at the same rate, but half a season is an ample sample size to declare betting against the Bulls good business.
The under on Heat games has been even more productive than Chicago’s opponents. The under is 35-18 in Miami games (split pretty evenly between home and away). The trend is still going strong, with three of the last four and nine of the last 13 staying under the total. A bad offense (96.0 PPG, second-last in the league) and top-notch defense (96.3 PPG, second-best in the league) are equally responsible.
The Grizzlies are drastically outperforming expectations. They give up more points (99.1) than they score (98.2), yet have a 31-22 record. As you can likely deduce, they have a very high winning-percentage in tight games, something that should regress to the mean.
The Wizards have played the most difficult schedule in the league thus far. Their 23-28 record isn’t good, but they’re still in playoff contention in the weaker Eastern Conference. They’ve been sharp on the road, covering 15 of 24 games outside of DC. With an easier upcoming slate, Washington should start picking up more wins.
(Photo credit: By Keith Allison from Owings Mills, USA (Derrick Rose) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)