San Diego favored to end Florida’s Final Four Cinderella run

The opening match of the NCAAB Final Four sees No.5 seeds, the San Diego State Aztecs taking on No.9 seeds, the Florida Atlantic Owls, in Houston on Saturday evening. Both of these sides are making their debuts in the Final Four. Who will take the honors? Well, in a NCAAB Championship that has featured no end of shocks, who knows. So here we will attempt to answer that question with our latest free NCAAB betting picks.

  • What; NCAA Tournament, Men’s Basketball – Final Four
  • Who; San Diego State Aztecs (5) vs Florida Atlantic Owls (9)
  • Where; NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
  • When; Saturday, April 1st, 2023
  • Tip Off; 6 pm ET

The Aztecs and the Owls are probably the two least fancied teams remaining in the competition. Whichever of these two sides makes it to the final will be the outsider. The only real reason why the Aztecs are second in the betting to win the NCAA Tournament is because the third favorites, Miami FL, are playing UConn in the second Final Four match.

UConn are the overwhelming favorites, and almost every college basketball pundit’s pick to win the tournament. The latest betting from the best March Madness betting sites reflects this. The Huskies are odds on favorites at -145, with the Aztecs next at +400, who are closely followed by the Miami Hurricanes at +475, and the Florida Owls at +600.

NCAAB Tournament winner betting ahead of Final FourBetOnline ReviewMyBookie ReviewBovada
San Diego State+400+400+400
Miami Florida+475+475+475
Florida Atlantic+600+600+600

The bookmakers listed on our NCAA Tournament winner betting table are some of the best for college basketball. You can read more about them on our best US sportsbooks reviews page. Here you will also find details of the best new customer offers currently available from these sportsbooks.

Right, now it’s time to look at how these two teams made it to the Final Four.

The Aztecs have well exceeded expectations

The Aztecs topped the table in the Mountain West with a conference record of 15-3. The Selection Committee handed them the No.5 seeding, and they have exceeded this rating.

In the First Round, the Aztecs defeated No.12 seeds Charleston 63-57. They followed that six points win up with a 23 points demolition of No.13 Furman (75-52). But the win that exceeded all expectations came in the Sweet 16, when Brian Dutcher’s team knocked out the betting favorites, and No.1 seeds, the Alabama Crimson Tide.

The Aztecs held a five point lead at the halfway stage (28-23). In the second half, the Crimson Tide fought back. But the Aztecs held out to score a shock 71-64 win, blowing the whole competition wide open.

Moving onto the Elite Eight, the Aztecs defeated No.5 seeds, Creighton by one point. The Bluejays were leading 33-28 at the halfway stage. But San Diego fought back to win the game 57-56, and take their place in the Final Four for the first ever time.

Florida set to continue Cinderella run?

Florida finished top of the Conference USA with an 18-2 record. The Owls now have an overall season record of 35-3 following their three points win over Kansas State in the Elite Eight. Florida held a four points lead at the halfway stage. But they managed to withstand the Wildcats’ fightback in the second half to secure a 79-76 win and a place in the Final Four.

Earlier in the competition the No.9 seeds defeated Memphis (8) 66-65 in the First Round. They then followed that up with a 78-70 win over FDU (16) in Round Two, and then came an impressive seven points win over Tennessee in the Sweet 16.

At the halfway point, the Volunteers were five points to the good (27-22). But a strong second period saw the Owls win the half by 12 points (40-28), giving them a 62-55 win.

The Owls’ Sweet 16 and Elite Eight wins have been particularly impressive. They are truly on a Cinderella run. And even though statistics suggest this is where these sorts of runs generally end, the Owls have already shown that they are well able to keep this run going.

San Diego vs Florida Betting

In the betting to win, the best college basketball betting sites are favoring the Aztecs. But not by much!

On the moneyline, San Diego is -147, with Florida Atlantic at +127. On the handicap line, Florida is receiving just +2.5 points. With the advantage Florida is -106, and starting from -2.5 points, San Diego is -114. On the total points line, over 131.5 is -110, and under 131.5 is also -110.

It all says the sportsbooks are expecting a close contest.

Our Pick

In the other Final Four matchup you will struggle to find a pundit giving the underdogs, Miami a chance. This is not the case in this match, where quite a few NCAA fans and followers feel the underdogs are in with a real opportunity.

We are tending to agree. The FAU Owls have Johnell Davis leading the way. And with the in-form man being ably supported by Vladislav Goldin, we believe the Owls have more than a good chance to continue their Cinderella run. Our pick is for FAU Owls to win on the moneyline.

Florida AtlanticTo beat San Diego
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Dean Etheridge

Hailing from Coventry, England, Dean brings his British wit to every piece he pens. A true lover of a good wager, Dean's passion for both sports and writing has merged into the world of sports betting. Dean is the mastermind behind his very own soccer and cricket betting platforms. As the owner and editor of a renowned football betting website, Dean has established himself as a force within the industry. His expertise as a freelance content writer is centered in the realms of football, cricket and Formula 1. From breaking down odds to unraveling strategies, Dean's writing radiates an unmatched love for sports. When he’s not immersed in sports betting, Dean enjoyes exploring new culinary delights, conquering the latest car racing video games, or getting lost in the pages of a novel.