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Missouri State enters the Xbox Bowl with a 7–5 record and will square off against Arkansas State (6–6) on Thursday. Arkansas State continues to build postseason continuity, appearing in a bowl game for the third straight year after capturing the 68 Ventures Bowl a season ago and competing in the Camellia Bowl the year before that. In contrast, this marks a milestone moment for Missouri State, as it is both the program’s first bowl invitation and its debut campaign at the FBS level.
The Red Wolves open as 1-point favorites, with the total set at 54.5 points. With postseason familiarity on their side and a dynamic presence under center capable of creating explosive plays, Arkansas State holds a meaningful edge and is well-positioned to come out on top in this matchup.
- What? Xbox Bowl 2025: Missouri State vs. Arkansas State
- Where? Ford Center, Texas
- When? Thursday, December 18, 2025, 9.00pm ET
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Odds
Below are the odds from three of the best College Football betting sites.
| Xbox Bowl |  |  |  |
| Missouri State | -105 | -105 | -105 |
| Arkansas State | -116 | -115 | -115 |
| Missouri State +1 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Arkansas State -1 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Over 54.5 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Under 54.5 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Arkansas State’s postseason familiarity is a clear advantage, but it is far from the only factor working in its favor. Over the past two seasons, the Red Wolves have posted a strong 7–2 straight-up record when listed as favorites. Covering the number has been less consistent, however, as they are just 4–5 against the spread in those situations. With point spreads in that span ranging from 1.5 to 14.5 points, that uneven performance makes the straight-up victory a more appealing angle than laying the points.
Missouri State’s results as an underdog further tilt the matchup toward Arkansas State. The Bears finished the season 2–4 straight up and 3–3 against the spread when catching points, with those figures slipping to 2–8 SU and 6–4 ATS across their last 10 games in the underdog role. That trend raises questions about their ability to consistently capitalize when placed in a challenging spot.
At quarterback, Missouri State received solid production from Jacob Clark, who completed 65.1% of his passes for 2,895 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. While those passing numbers were impressive—his touchdown total topped Conference USA—Clark added very little as a runner, finishing with just eight rushing yards and three scores. Arkansas State counters with a more versatile option in Jaylen Raynor. Now in his third season with the program, Raynor threw for 3,073 yards on 67.2% passing, along with 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. His passing yardage led the Sun Belt and ranked 19th nationally, and he added a significant rushing element with 434 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground.
That dual-threat profile could pose problems for a Missouri State defense allowing 160.2 rushing yards per game. It also opens the door for Arkansas State’s backfield, where Devin Spencer (523 rushing yards) and Kenyon Clay (470 rushing yards) provide additional balance. With multiple offensive weapons and a quarterback capable of stressing defenses in different ways, the Red Wolves appear well-equipped to control this matchup.
Check out more College Football Bowl odds.
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Prediction and Betting Picks
Missouri State has taken care of business when laying points, winning five of its last six games outright. However, the betting angle in this matchup goes beyond the final result. The point spread paints a different picture, and that is where Arkansas State continues to stand out.
The Red Wolves have been especially dependable when listed as underdogs, covering the spread in each of their last five games in that role. That consistency is significant in closely lined matchups, where execution and situational performance often outweigh overall team profiles.
Arkansas State has also shown an ability to build on success, covering the spread in every game following a win this season. In higher-scoring environments, the Red Wolves have been equally trustworthy. They post a 6–1 record against the spread in games with totals set at 50 points or higher. That trend suggests comfort in faster-paced contests where offensive efficiency becomes critical.
Defensive issues have been part of the Arkansas State profile. The unit ranks near the bottom nationally in points allowed. Even so, those shortcomings have not translated into poor betting results. The Red Wolves have consistently stayed competitive, trading scores and preventing games from getting out of hand. This has helped them remain profitable at the window.
While Missouri State may offer more stability on paper, Arkansas State has repeatedly delivered value against the number in comparable situations. As a result, backing the Red Wolves at -1 emerges as the preferred betting option in this matchup.
Below are the best offshore sportsbooks for your Missouri State vs. Arkansas State bets.
Sports Betting Sites 