Geoff Johnson
- I don’t like Arizona at all
- Maryland just fired DJ Durkin, and are only 3-point underdogs
- Let’s go with Mark Dantonio here, shall we?
We finished 1-1 last week, which brings us to 17-13-0 for the season. This week’s odds come from Bovada.
Colorado at Arizona
| Team | Spread |
|---|---|
| Colorado | +3.0 (-110) |
| Arizona | -3.0 (-110) |
The first thing you should know is that Colorado is the better team. To whit:
Colorado at Arizona Statistical Comparison
| 2018 Stat | Colorado | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-3 | 4-5 |
| S&P+ Defensive Rank | 57th | 62nd |
| S&P+ Offensive Rank | 68th | 81st |
| S&P+ Overall Rank | 65th | 73rd |
The second thing is that Arizona has a lot of the ingredients you look for in an overrated team. They’ve got a big-name coach in Kevin Sumlin. They’ve got a meteorically talented quarterback, in Khalil Tate.
They’re also up against a team that’s not a traditional power within the conference but has been scary all year. The Buffs did lose an ugly game to Oregon State, who should not be beating anybody, but on the whole they’ve performed well enough to attract some attention.
Betting Advice: Let’s take the statistically better team (Colorado) and the points.
Michigan State at Maryland
| Team | Spread |
|---|---|
| Michigan State | -3.0 (-110) |
| Maryland | +3.0 (-11) |
You won’t see me pick a lot of road favorites, but I will take Michigan State over a team that just fired its coach any day.
Michigan State vs Maryland Statistical Comparison
| 2018 Stat | Michigan State | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-3 | 5-3 |
| S&P+ Defensive Rank | 14th | 37th |
| S&P+ Offensive Rank | 102nd | 89th |
| S&P+ Overall Rank | 33rd | 54th |
That’s right: Maryland has fired DJ Durkin. They said they might, and then said they wouldn’t, and then finally did. It was a process that took roughly nine thousand days and a series of meeting that never seemed to end.
After all that turmoil, you’re left with a mediocre football team that’s been torn apart by internal turmoil and stripped of its already-bad head coach. They’re going up against one of the most consistently well-coached and physical teams in their conference, who can secure bowl eligibility with this win. I think this game will be a lot more lopsided than a three-point spread.
Betting Advice: I love Michigan State here, even as a favorite.
