College Football Week 8 Betting Preview: Oregon to Cover

  • We took a week off, to think about things
  • We’ve decided that Oregon is actually good
  • and that Auburn is very bad

Due to a clerical error, we were unable to publish our picks for Week 7. Having reviewed the picks we had in draft, however, that’s probably a good thing. We’re still 15-9-0 heading into Week 8, and looking forward to some winners.

Let’s get back to winning!

Alabama (#1) at Tennessee

Team Spread
Alabama (#1) -29.0 (-105)
Tennessee +29.0 (-115)

Nope! I don’t buy a 29-point spread! Sorry! That’s more or less all we have to say!

Alabama at Tennessee Statistical Comparison

2018 Stat Alabama Tennessee
Record 7-0 3-3
S&P+ Defensive Rank 17th 97th
S&P+ Offensive Rank 2nd 38th
S&P+ Overall Rank 1st 67th

One of these days I’m going to lay oodles of points for Alabama, but today is not that day. Tennessee is bad at all the important things they’ll need to do to stay close here, but projecting a 20-point win is a little rich for my blood.

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I look forward to getting torched on this bet by a hobbled Tua Tagovailoa.

Betting Tip: As much as a hate to bet against Auburn at home, look for this to be a tighter game than you’d think. Take the points.

Auburn at Ole Miss

Team Spread
Auburn -4.0 (-105)
Ole Miss +4.0 (-115)

I strongly feel that this line is upside-down.

Auburn at Ole Miss Statistical Comparison

2018 Stat Ole Miss Auburn
Record 5-2 4-3
S&P+ Defensive Rank 112th 2nd
S&P+ Offensive Rank 3rd 97th
S&P+ Overall Rank 38th 23rd

Ole Miss is better than people give them credit for, and Auburn is in a full-blown tailspin. I had Tennessee beating them at Jordan Hare in last week’s lost pick sheet, and I’ll happily take the points for a home dog here. Particularly when that home dog is this fun to watch.

At this point the only interesting betting question about Auburn is whether or not Gus Malzahn will be fired. He’s kind of perpetually on the hot seat, but this 2018 season is a special kind of awful that he may not survive. Remember: these people fired Gene Chizik and did not blink.

Betting Tip: Auburn is collapsing, take the points.

Memphis at Misssouri

Team Spread
Memphis +9.5 (-110)
Missouri -9.5 (-110)

Another upside-down line. Memphis is measurably the better team, and Missouri home-field advantage isn’t worth 9.5 points.

Memphis at Missouri Statistical Comparison

2018 Stat Memphis Missouri
Record 4-3 3-3
S&P+ Defensive Rank 90th 69th
S&P+ Offensive Rank 8th 22nd
S&P+ Overall Rank 27th 37th

You should know that Memphis is currently fielding Darrell Henderson, the most productive RB in the country. Henderson currently leads the country in rushing yards, yards per carry, and yards from scrimmage, with 1133, 10.3, and 1324. That’s an incredible feat, and if it continues he should be at least invited to New York.

Ahh, but you say, Missouri has a transformative offensive player of their own. Drew Lock is a fantastic, highly touted quarterback, who has thrown many touchdowns! He has an outside shot at a Heisman!

Let me just put it this way: the last time Drew Lock threw for more touchdowns than interceptions was mid-September. I’ll take a pass on him, and I believe NFL scouts will too.

Betting Tip: I’ll stop betting on Memphis when someone successfully tackles Darrell Henderson. It hasn’t happened yet, so give me the points.

Oregon (+3.0) at Washington State

Team Spread
Oregon (#12) +3.0 (-115)
Washington State (#25) -3.0 (-105)

At first this line looks wonky. Oregon just beat Washington, and now travel to Pullman for Washington State’s College Gameday debut.

Oregon at Washington State Statistical Comparison

2018 Stat Oregon Washington State
Record 5-1 5-1
S&P+ Defensive Rank 91st 74th
S&P+ Offensive Rank 12th 13th
S&P+ Overall Rank 34th 29th

Upon further consideration, it starts to make sense. Washington State is quietly having a  great year, and came within a hair’s breadth of beating USC. Their best win is over Utah, which is a very, very tough game for a team as pass-focused as Wazzu to win.

My feeling is that while Oregon is statistically the lesser team, the Ducks are trending in the right direction. We’re seeing them do things they’ve never done before (like play offensive line!) and since it’s their first year under Mario Cristobal you can expect in-season improvements to continue.

Betting Tip: We’re taking the points. Go Ducks!

Geoff Johnson

MTS co-founder Geoff Johnson is a lifelong Mets fan, something he can't do anything about. He has a great track record when it comes to wagering on baseball – largely because he's more than willing to bet against the Mets. His career profits are impressive, but not quite as good as his handsome friend Frank Lorenzo. He wishes he hadn't let Frank write his profile.

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