Michigan vs TCU: College Football Playoff Semifinal Picks

  • No. 2 Michigan (13-0) is a 7.5-point favorite over No. 3 TCU (12-1) in the Fiesta Bowl
  • The Wolverines lead the nation in scoring differential and the Horned Frogs are making their first-ever CFP appearance
  • The College Football Playoff Semifinal kicks off from State Farm Stadium in Arizona on Dec. 31 at 4pm E.T.

Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines are making their second-consecutive trip to the College Football Playoff Semifinal while TCU joins Oklahoma as the only Big 12 teams to ever earn a tournament berth.

This first-ever meeting between the two programs will determine who advances to the National Championship Game in Los Angeles on January 9, 2023.

Before we check the odds for this year’s Fiesta Bowl, here’s where your can find the latest NCAAF betting opportunities and our guide to betting on the 2022 NCAAF National Championship.

Michigan (2) vs TCU (3)

BetOnline ReviewSpreadMoney LineTotal Points
TCU+7.5 (-111)+240Ov 58.5 (-110)
Michigan-7.5 (-109)-285Un 58.5 (-110)

Wolverines worthy favorites

Jim Harbaugh is again a popular name with NFL franchises searching for a new coach. The 58-year-old led the Wolverines to their first 13-win season in school history. They demolished their Ohio State rivals 45-23 in the final game of the regular season and went on to destroy Purdue 43-22 in the Big Ten Championship Game. It was the first time Michigan claimed back-to-back conference titles since 2003-04. 

TCU also went undefeated throughout the regular season, before suffering a 31-28 overtime loss to No. 10 Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Can TCU compete?

The Horned Frogs posted a 12-1 record under first-year head coach Sonny Dyke. They have only two victories over ranked opponents (No. 11 Kansas State and No. 21 Texas). Michigan should be a step up in weight class, but they too only have two Ws over ranked programs (No. 3 Buckeyes and No. 9 Penn State).

TCU has the advantage at the quarterback position. Matt Duggan was named a Heisman Trophy finalist after passing for 3,321 yards and 30 touchdowns this season with only four interceptions. His top target is 6’4″, 215-pound receiver Quentin Johnston, who projects to be a top-15 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Michigan WolverinesTo Cover Spread
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TCU Horned FrogsTo Win
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Wolverines vs Horned Frogs

Michigan is a 7.5-point favorite over TCU in State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona and the over-under is set at 58.5 points. The Horned Frogs rank sixth nationally in scoring offense (40.3 points per game), but U-M is sixth in the nation in scoring defense (13.4 ppg). They also rank top ten in scoring offense (40.1 ppg), finishing just behind their Fiesta Bowl opponents.

The Wolverines top the country in scoring differential (+27.2 ppg), outgaining their opponents by almost 200 yards per contest. That suggests this one could be a blowout if TCU doesn’t bring their very best.

Best Bet

Blake Corum had season-ending surgery after rushing for 1,463 yards (5.92 yards per carry) and 18 touchdowns. However, Donovan Edwards stepped right into the No. 1 role, piling up 401 yards and three scores in his past two starts. That could be bad news for the Horned Frogs, who have allowed opposing backs to rack up almost 150 yards per game with 21 rushing TDs in 2022.

J.J. McCarthy is also on fire, throwing seven total touchdowns versus Ohio State and Purdue. As long as he’s not badly outplayed by Duggan, Michigan should cruise to a double-digit victory and berth in the National Championship Game.

Final Score Prediction: Michigan 37, TCU 24

Michigan vs TCU-110
OVER 58.5
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Steve Starr

Steve is the quintessential American sports enthusiast. He has mastered the art of Sundays, devoting them to football, and barbecue parties. He proudly wears the hats of a good father, husband and a great dog owner. Aside from his decades of contributing to different top-tier sports publications, Steve has also found his niche on Twitter, where he publishes funny and relatable sports-related insights. When he's not busy tweeting, Steve loves to watch each game unfold live. He possesses an innate talent for finding humor in the sports world, appreciating both the thrilling moments and the comedic mishaps that make each event unique.