Steve Starr
- No. 2 Michigan (13-0) is a 7.5-point favorite over No. 3 TCU (12-1) in the Fiesta Bowl
- The Wolverines lead the nation in scoring differential and the Horned Frogs are making their first-ever CFP appearance
- The College Football Playoff Semifinal kicks off from State Farm Stadium in Arizona on Dec. 31 at 4pm E.T.
Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines are making their second-consecutive trip to the College Football Playoff Semifinal while TCU joins Oklahoma as the only Big 12 teams to ever earn a tournament berth.
This first-ever meeting between the two programs will determine who advances to the National Championship Game in Los Angeles on January 9, 2023.
Before we check the odds for this year’s Fiesta Bowl, here’s where your can find the latest NCAAF betting opportunities and our guide to betting on the 2022 NCAAF National Championship.
Michigan (2) vs TCU (3)
 | Spread | Money Line | Total Points |
| TCU | +7.5 (-111) | +240 | Ov 58.5 (-110) |
| Michigan | -7.5 (-109) | -285 | Un 58.5 (-110) |
Wolverines worthy favorites
Jim Harbaugh is again a popular name with NFL franchises searching for a new coach. The 58-year-old led the Wolverines to their first 13-win season in school history. They demolished their Ohio State rivals 45-23 in the final game of the regular season and went on to destroy Purdue 43-22 in the Big Ten Championship Game. It was the first time Michigan claimed back-to-back conference titles since 2003-04.
TCU also went undefeated throughout the regular season, before suffering a 31-28 overtime loss to No. 10 Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Big Ten COY Jim Harbaugh made it all about the players all year long.
Roll the postgame interview tape. 😂 pic.twitter.com/ld5mr3KUzj
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) November 29, 2022
Can TCU compete?
The Horned Frogs posted a 12-1 record under first-year head coach Sonny Dyke. They have only two victories over ranked opponents (No. 11 Kansas State and No. 21 Texas). Michigan should be a step up in weight class, but they too only have two Ws over ranked programs (No. 3 Buckeyes and No. 9 Penn State).
TCU has the advantage at the quarterback position. Matt Duggan was named a Heisman Trophy finalist after passing for 3,321 yards and 30 touchdowns this season with only four interceptions. His top target is 6’4″, 215-pound receiver Quentin Johnston, who projects to be a top-15 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Wolverines vs Horned Frogs
Michigan is a 7.5-point favorite over TCU in State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona and the over-under is set at 58.5 points. The Horned Frogs rank sixth nationally in scoring offense (40.3 points per game), but U-M is sixth in the nation in scoring defense (13.4 ppg). They also rank top ten in scoring offense (40.1 ppg), finishing just behind their Fiesta Bowl opponents.
The Wolverines top the country in scoring differential (+27.2 ppg), outgaining their opponents by almost 200 yards per contest. That suggests this one could be a blowout if TCU doesn’t bring their very best.
The 2022 Heisman Trophy finalists are quarterbacks Stetson Bennett of Georgia, Max Duggan of TCU, C.J. Stroud of Ohio State & Caleb Williams of USC! The 2022 Heisman winner will be announced during the Heisman Trophy Ceremony Presented by Nissan on Dec. 10 at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. pic.twitter.com/MBEW2XS4Ow
— The Heisman Trophy (@HeismanTrophy) December 6, 2022
Best Bet
Blake Corum had season-ending surgery after rushing for 1,463 yards (5.92 yards per carry) and 18 touchdowns. However, Donovan Edwards stepped right into the No. 1 role, piling up 401 yards and three scores in his past two starts. That could be bad news for the Horned Frogs, who have allowed opposing backs to rack up almost 150 yards per game with 21 rushing TDs in 2022.
J.J. McCarthy is also on fire, throwing seven total touchdowns versus Ohio State and Purdue. As long as he’s not badly outplayed by Duggan, Michigan should cruise to a double-digit victory and berth in the National Championship Game.
Final Score Prediction: Michigan 37, TCU 24
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