National Championship Odds Update After Tua Goes Down In Week 12

  • BetOnline views the national title as a toss-up between Ohio State (+200), Clemson (+250) and LSU (+250)
  • Alabama (+1400) is likely to miss the College Football Playoff for the first time in its six-year history
  • Georgia (+700), Oklahoma (+1600) and Oregon (+2000) are all in contention for the last spot in the semi-final

After Tua Tagovailoa’s season-ending hip injury, it’s increasingly beginning to look like Alabama will miss out on the College Football Playoff for the first time since the format began in 2014-15.

Given Ohio State, Clemson and LSU are shoo-ins for the semi-final after each delivered yet another beatdown to their Week 12 opponent, the Crimson Tide are contending for one remaining spot.

Let’s look at the latest national championship odds at BetOnline and examine what other schools have a chance at sneaking into the CFP.


Team Current Odds Trending Last Week
Ohio State +200 +200
Clemson +250 +300
LSU +250 +250
Georgia +700 +900
Alabama +1400 +900
Oklahoma +1600 +1600
Oregon +2000 +2500
Utah +3300 +4000
Penn State +5000 +10000
Minnesota +15000 +5000
Baylor +25000 +6600
Cincinnati +50000 +50000


Georgia picked up a fourth-quality win on Saturday, beating Auburn 21-14 in their own building. The Bulldogs defense has only allowed more than 17 points in a game only once, but the offense continues to be a concern.

Preseason Heisman hopeful Jake Fromm has only accounted for 16 touchdowns on the season, a number that pales in comparison to the TD totals of Jalen Hurts (43), Justin Fields (41) and Joe Burrow (41).

The bottom line is that Georgia will need to defeat the Tigers in the SEC Championship to make the final four, and given their offensive struggles, that seems like a long shot.


While a loss to Kansas State provides a serious blemish on the Sooners’ resume, it’s becoming increasingly clear that Oklahoma is the most entertaining option for the CFP committee.

Jalen Hurts threw four more touchdowns in a thrilling 34-31 comeback victory over Baylor on Saturday, and should continue to light it up against TCU and Oklahoma State the next two weeks before an inevitable Big 12 title rematch with the Bears.

Aside from winning out, Lincoln Riley’s team might only need a Georgia loss to get into the CFP given the injury to Tagovailoa.

As found in USA Today, one of the five principles listed among the committee’s selection protocol deals directly with injuries: members will consider key injuries that “likely will affect” a team’s postseason performance.


After clobbering their respective Week 12 opponents, Oregon and Utah are on a collision course to face off in a Pac-12 title game in a few weeks.

While it’s hard to envision a one-loss Utes team getting selected, the Ducks have a better shot given they faced a tougher schedule, haven’t lost since Week 1 versus Auburn, and have a star quarterback (Justin Herbert) that NFL draftniks are drooling over.

However, unless Auburn raises their standing with an upset over the Crimson Tide in the final week of the season, the committee is probably more likely to put Oklahoma or Alabama in that last spot.

Steve Starr

Steve is one of the many Americans who spends Sunday watching football on the couch and gorging on heart-clogging eats. He describes himself as a good father, great dog owner, and mediocre gambler and husband.

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