It’s the last week of the regular season in college football and it’s not just any week — it’s rivalry week! Between the bragging rights, the College Football Playoff positioning, and the money wagered, there’s a lot at stake this weekend. Therefore, it feels only right to offer our own college football free betting picks for Week 13! Read this for a betting game plan on the busy days ahead.
Against The Spread: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes at No. 6 Michigan Wolverines
|Ohio State spread||-7.5||-7.5|
We begin with a game that will have no shortage of action at the top NCAA football betting sites. Ohio State at Michigan is the biggest college game this season thus far and a College Football Playoff spot is essentially on the line. Given both teams’ strengths, it’s not an easy bet to make by any means — but it’s a bet you almost have to make. Seriously, are you going to pass this one up when all eyes will be on it? Yeah, we didn’t think so.
Here are two things you need to know: this is the classic great offense vs. a great defense game. The 10-1 Wolverines have a top-10 defense by most major categories. The Buckeyes have the nation’s most prolific offense in terms of yards and points. Michigan hasn’t played an offense this electric, but at the same time, Ohio State’s offense hasn’t matched up with a defense as credible as their rivals. This dichotomy is why we’re staying away from the over/under — we legit don’t know what’ll happen scoring-wise.
A second thing worth noting is John Harbaugh hasn’t beaten the Buckeyes since first coming to Ann Arbor in 2015. Heck, he hasn’t even been competitive in those matchups. In the Harbaugh era, four of Ohio State’s five wins versus Michigan have been by double digits. Therefore, the 7.5 point spread currently being doled out by the best online sportsbooks for NCAAF seems to be “on the money.”
We’re taking the Buckeyes and the points. This team looked absolutely unstoppable last weekend against the other ranked team from the state of Michigan (the Spartans) and quarterback CJ Stroud is the Heisman Trophy front-runner for a reason. Harbaugh, despite his surprising success this season, still hasn’t proven he’s in the same class as Ohio State, this year or ever.
Against The Spread: No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|Georgia Tech spread||+35||+35|
On paper, this game feels like an easy spread cover for Georgia. The best team in the nation hasn’t played a competitive game since the opener (a 10-3 victory over Clemson). Its opponent, Georgia Tech, was just blanked last weekend 55-0 by a lesser Notre Dame squad.
But call us crazy, we think the Yellow Jackets cover the five-touchdown spread come Saturday. Not necessarily because they’re good (they’re not, hence its 3-8 record). No, we think the Bulldogs will instead sleepwalk through this game. Let’s be honest, they have their eyes on Alabama the following week for the SEC championship. With the focus on ‘Bama instead, we predict Georgia Tech sneaks up and covers the betting line.
Moneyline: Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators
It’s been a season of two halves for both in-state rivals. Florida went from a two-point loss to Alabama early in the year to firing its head coach this past weekend after losing to lowly Missouri last weekend. Florida State started 0-4 but has gone 5-2 since then. So what gives when betting on the Seminoles-Gators moneyline?
In these scenarios, our gut instinct is to bet on the streakier team, which is Florida State in this case. Teams change over the course of a season due to injuries and morale, which the Gators are on the bad side of. Firing Dan Mullen this week is just another distraction. We’re feeling bold, therefore, taking the Seminoles’ moneyline rather than spread (+3).
Over/Under 44 Points: Boise State at No. 22 San Diego State
|Over 44 Points||-110||-110|
|Under 44 Points||-110||-110|
While this matchup might not have the “hype” of the aforementioned picks, it’s very bet-worthy. In particular, we have our eyes feasted on the over/under of 44 points. On one hand, Boise State has hit the under for six straight weeks. On the other hand, this is the lowest point total they’ve had all year long (and its 13.6 points lower than the two team’s combined 58.1 scoring average). That’s partly due to San Diego State, which has a stout defense of its own.
While these two teams aren’t “rivals” per se, there’s a lot on the line Saturday. If the Broncos win, there’s an off-chance they would leapfrog the Aztecs to play in the MWC title game (they would need other teams to lose, as well). A win from SDSU and they’re into the conference championship game no matter what. With both teams having a lot to gain or lose, we feel it’ll be a conservatively-fought affair, which hints at the under-hitting.
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