- Sometimes you find yourself backing Florida and Kentucky and asking yourself: why?
- Because they’re good teams, is why
- Unless Justin Fields plays a lot, in which case…
We finished 1-3 last weekend, which leaves us at 16-12-0 for the season. That was our worst week so far, so we’re looking at breaking this slump.
Kentucky (#12) at Missouri
|Kentucky (#12)||+7.0 (-105)|
I like Kentucky a lot, and I love them against the spread in 2018. They’ve produced some great upsets for us this year, and I love this matchup for the Wildcats.
Kentucky at Missouri Statistical Comparison
|S&P+ Defensive Rank||4th||70th|
|S&P+ Offensive Rank||99th||12th|
|S&P+ Overall Rank||28th||25th|
This is a game that Kentucky can keep under control. They’re a balanced, efficient defense, and if anyone on Missouri’s schedule can give Drew Lock trouble, it’s Kentucky.
Also, this spread is just a little too wide. Missouri’s a great team, and they definitely have the potential to blow everyone out, but have suffered some tight games and low-scoring games in 2018. Those games have generally come when Missouri faced off against tougher competition, and Kentucky definitely qualifies.
We haven’t even mentioned Benny Snell yet, who is still averaging 5.4 yards per carry in 2018. He probably won’t get to his 2017 touchdown number (19) this year, but he’s well on his way with nine already.
Betting Tip: Just take Kentucky and the points whenever available.
Georgia (#7) at Florida (#9)
|Georgia (#7)||-7.0 (-105)|
|Florida (#9)||+7.0 (-115)|
Georgia’s a great team, and have all the motivation they need to paste Florida in this year’s cocktail party. The SEC East title hangs in the balance, and with it Georgia’s playoff hopes.
Georgia at Florida Statistical Comparison
|S&P+ Defensive Rank||24th||19th|
|S&P+ Offensive Rank||6th||32nd|
|S&P+ Overall Rank||5th||14th|
The trouble with this game is the quarterback situation. Georgia’s Jake Fromm was disappointing last week, and calls for true freshman Justin Fields have gotten louder and louder. Fields is by far the more talented quarterback, and head coach Kirby Smart got a first-hand lesson in what a true freshman quarterback can do in the national title game.
If the Bulldogs have used their bye week to install a new game plan that more heavily features Justin Fields, Florida could be in a lot of trouble. He’s exactly the kind of undefendable mobile quarterback that Alabama’s been using to great effect all season, and would kickstart Georgia’s offense.
That’s still an outside possibility, so right now we’re just looking at a road favorite coming off a bad loss with a quarterback controversy. Let’s take the points.
Betting Tip: Take the points.