Dee Friedman
- The NFL Season is just three weeks old, but MVP odds have dramatically changed
- Only one non-quarterback is getting any sort of support
- There is plenty of value available if you consider that there are 14 weeks left in the regular season
Is Patrick Mahomes the next Joe Montana? If you are sure that he is, go ahead and take the Chiefs QB to win this year’s MVP at 3/1. However, if you recognize that young signal callers sometime regress after coaches get to study them on tape, and that three weeks does not make a season, there are lots of other players providing ample futures betting value.
Perspective is incredibly important. The season is young, and the odds from the preseason are still relevant. Only four players are under 10/1 currently, and that does not include the reigning award winner Tom Brady, who has been honored three times.
Whether you want to go with guys from the best team, prefer to analyze players one-by-one and evaluate each, or want a purely analytical model, there is no question that value exists.
While Mahomes has gone from afterthought to chalk, the odds have been upped for Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, and Jared Goff, a formidable trio. Let’s look at some of your betting options.
2018 NFL MVP Odds
| Team | BetOnline Odds |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3/1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5/1 |
| Drew Brees | 13/2 |
| Tom Brady | 12/1 |
| Carson Wentz | 20/1 |
| Jared Goff | 22/1 |
| Matt Ryan | 25/1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 33/1 |
| Cam Newton | 33/1 |
Should Mahomes really be that big a favorite?
While he has been nothing short of spectacular thus far, to give him an implied probability of winning the award at 25% is crazy. We have seen him do unbelievable work thus far this season.
As good as it looks, we’re not even a quarter of the way home, the Chiefs have gotten off to great starts before, and he has gone from unknown to the center of attention very quickly.
What About the Usual Candidates?
We’ve seen the Patriots start slow before and rebound. If you believe that will happen again, Brady will orchestrate it and be a strong candidate. His price is as high as ever right now.
Rodgers and Drew Brees are probably priced appropriately. The MVP almost always comes from an elite team. How good do you think the Packers and Saints are?
The Best MVP Value Choices
The narrative for Wentz is perfect. The Eagles struggled to go 1-1 without him. He came back and played reasonably well in a win over the Colts. He’ll likely get better as the year moves along and he is further removed from the injury. As evidenced by their Super Bowl win last year, Philly has plenty of talent around him to win a lot of games. He should be peaking right around the voting. It all makes sense.
As good as Gurley is, quarterbacks have won the MVP five years running and 10 times in the last 11 seasons. If you believe the Rams are on their way to a 13 or 14 win season, Goff is going to be a huge part of it. At 22/1, his price is very much worthwhile.
