Steve Starr
- BetOnline has released win totals for all 32 NFL teams
- New England opens with the highest win total in the league (11)
- Oddsmakers believe Packers and 49ers will improve on last year while Bears and Steelers decline
With just under two weeks until the 2019 NFL Draft, a Twitter consensus has formed: the Browns are an unstoppable juggernaut; the Giants are being run into the ground by a geriatric GM; Antonio Brown is bats*** crazy; and Mike McCarthy definitely skipped a few team meetings for a rubdown.
Right or wrong, much of this “groupthink” is baked into the NFL team win totals just released by BetOnline. Let’s take a look at what franchises the oddsmakers believe will improve and decline the most from last season, and recommend some investments that are guaranteed to make at least $70 million more than the AAF did.
2019 NFL Win Totals
| Teams |
Regular-Season Win Totals at BetOnline |
Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.5 | +100 | -120 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 9 | -110 | -110 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8 | -110 | -110 |
| Buffalo Bills | 6.5 | +100 | -120 |
| Carolina Panthers | 8 | -110 | -110 |
| Chicago Bears | 9.5 | -105 | -115 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6 | -105 | -115 |
| Cleveland Browns | 9 | -130 | +110 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Denver Broncos | 7 | -110 | -110 |
| Detroit Lions | 7 | +100 | -120 |
| Green Bay Packers | 9.5 | +110 | -130 |
| Houston Texans | 8.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 8 | +100 | -120 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9.5 | -130 | +110 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 10.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9 | -110 | -110 |
| New England Patriots | 11 | -110 | -110 |
| New Orleans Saints | 10.5 | -110 | -110 |
| New York Giants | 6 | +120 | -140 |
| New York Jets | 7 | -120 | +100 |
| Oakland Raiders | 6.5 | +105 | -125 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 | -130 | +110 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 8 | -120 | +100 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Tennessee Titans | 8.5 | +110 | -130 |
| Washington Redskins | 6 | -105 | -115 |
*All odds from April 9, 2019
Set to Improve: Green Bay Packers (9.5 Wins)
Considering Green Bay had six wins last year and only seven in 2017, the robust 9.5 win total would suggest that oddsmakers also believe that former head coach Mike McCarthy had a low football IQ. However, whether you bet the over or under depends on what you believe.
Is Aaron Rodgers an arrogant d*** who will make life impossible for new head coach Matt LaFleur, or will the Sean McVay disciple finally give the Packer legend the offensive mind he’s always deserved?
If forced to lay a bet, I’d get in the passenger seat with Danica Patrick’s BF. It’s always a risky proposition that A-Rod stays healthy, but he’ll certainly be motivated and the team’s coaching couldn’t get any worse than it has been. Green Bay also revamped its defense in free agency and has two first round picks in the upcoming draft.
Rodgers froze out receivers who listened to coaches over him.
McCarthy skipped meetings for massages.@TyDunne talked to dozens of former players, coaches and personnel about the feud that tore the Packers apart. https://t.co/28qV2oshry pic.twitter.com/BFFVfTgnww— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 4, 2019
Set to Decline: Chicago Bears (9.5 Wins)
Sticking in the NFC North, the Bears over/under is pegged at only 9.5 after the team won 12 games last year. This, ladies and gentlemen, is what we call the Mitch Trubisky factor. While Cody Parkey’s missed field goal and subsequent Today Show appearance overshadowed his QB’s poor play in Chicago’s playoff loss to the Eagles, Vegas was certainly paying attention.
Using expected win totals to forecast 2019 Strength of Schedule, NFL analytics expert Warren Sharp pegs Chicago to have the fourth-hardest slate in the entire league. The Bears are also replacing defensive mastermind Vic Fangio, now HC of the Broncos, with Chuck “They can fire you but they can’t eat you” Pagano. I’m going to go ahead and call that a downgrade. Take the under.
Chuck Pagano: “They can fire you, but they can’t eat you.” https://t.co/PahqYo3O2O
— Deadspin (@Deadspin) December 15, 2015
Set to Improve: San Francisco 49ers (8 Wins)
The oddsmakers believe the #2 overall pick in the NFL draft, the trade for pass rusher Dee Ford, and the healthy return of dreamy Jimmy Garoppolo is reason enough to raise the 49ers win total by four games. I humbly disagree.
Since teaming up, head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch have managed all of 10 wins in two seasons, so eight seems like a stretch for 2019. After somehow missing out on both Odell Beckham Jr. and Antonio Brown, and once again failing to maximize their abundance of cap space, San Francisco will not sniff .500.
Set to Decline: Pittsburgh Steelers (8.5 Wins)
The Steelers missed the playoffs last year with a record of 9-6-1. While Vegas isn’t exactly forecasting a precipitous decline, I’m sneaking them into this category so I can recommend the over.
JuJu Smith-Schuster had a perfect response to Antonio Brown’s petty tweet about the WR https://t.co/dVRzDr2u0C pic.twitter.com/k7zbCb4RA3
— For The Win (@ForTheWin) April 8, 2019
It’s hard to say Pittsburgh will be better off without a wide receiver who scored 15 TDs last season, but Mr. Big Chest’s recent antics are proving it possible. While AB will quickly find out what life is like without a Hall of Famer throwing him the ball, the target of his recent attacks, JuJu Smith-Schuster, will be catching passes from the guy who quietly led the NFL in passing yards last season.
Also at Roethlisberger’s disposal will be battering ram James Conner, who has already showed he is more than capable of replacing Le’Veon Bell.
Despite the loss of big name stars, the Steelers still have one of the strongest rosters in the league and haven’t finished under 8.5 wins since 2013.
