2020 NFL MVP Update: Kyler Murray’s Odds Surge Following Free Agency

  • Patrick Mahomes (+600) and Lamar Jackson (+650) are still the favorites to win 2020 NFL MVP
  • Kyler Murray (+1000), Tom Brady (+2000) and Jameis Winston (+2500) all saw their MVP odds shorten in the past week
  • The Cowboys’ re-signing of Amari Cooper makes Dak Prescott (+1800) one of the better values on the board

If you thought you were bored in self-isolation last week, well, I’ve got some bad news for you… with the exception of Jadeveon Clowney, all the big NFL free agents are now off the board so there will be far fewer distractions for sports fans in the days ahead.

With that sobering thought, let’s review the latest NFL MVP odds after some of the biggest names in professional football switched teams.


Player Current Odds Trending Feb. 7, 2020
Patrick Mahomes +600 +600
Lamar Jackson +650 +700
Russell Wilson +900 +900
Kyler Murray +1000 +2000
Dak Prescott +1800 +2000
Deshaun Watson +2000 +1200
Carson Wentz +2000 +1800
Tom Brady +2000 +2800
Aaron Rodgers +2200 +2200
Drew Brees +2200 +2200
Christian McCaffrey +2500 +2500
Jameis Winston +2500 +6600
Ezekiel Elliott +2800 +2800
Baker Mayfield +3300 +5000
Josh Allen +3300 N/A
Matt Ryan +3300 +3300
Ben Roethlisberger +4000 +4000
Jimmy Garoppolo +4000 +4000
Kirk Cousins +4000 +4000
Philip Rivers +4000 +4000
Cam Newton +5000 +5000


Tom Brady‘s odds spiked from +2800 to +2000 after joining the Buccaneers. There’s no doubt the soon-to-be 43-year-old will enjoy throwing to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in Bruce Arians’ aggressive downfield attack, but adding a fourth-career MVP trophy to his mantel place seems a bit beyond the pale of possibilities.

Meanwhile, moving from the Chargers to Colts represents a weapons downgrade for Phillip Rivers, who stands pat at +4000. The celebrated trash talker will benefit from playing behind one of the league’s top offensive lines in coach Frank Reich’s quick-strike scheme. However, it’s hard to imagine the 38-year-old winning his first-career MVP in what could be his twilight season.

Interestingly, 2015 MVP Cam Newton stayed at +5000 after being cut by the new regime in Carolina, while 30-30 man Jameis Winston jumped all the way from +6600 to +2500 after walking the plank in Tampa. This seems to suggest that oddsmakers believe the former Heisman Trophy winner could be an option in New England.

Transforming the 26-year-old’s career would be the ultimate flex by Bill Belichick, but we still wouldn’t recommend betting on it.


The sad return on the DeAndre Hopkins trade not only caused a nosedive in the Texans’ odds to win the AFC South, it dropped Deshaun Watson‘s 2020 MVP odds from +1200 to +2000.

And, with one of the league’s preeminent receivers joining the reigning Rookie of the Year in Arizona, Kyler Murray‘s award odds not so surprisingly surged to +1000. Let’s hope you grabbed Kyler at +2000 when we recommend him back in February.

Two of the top ten picks in the 2018 NFL Draft moved up the board after their teams added talent in free agency. Austin Hooper will give Baker Mayfield (+3300) a big target over the middle of the field in Cleveland while the Bills’ Josh Allen (+3300) gets one of the league’s top receivers in Stefon Diggs. Sticking with that draft class, Sam Darnold is at +8000 and Josh Rosen could soon be on his third team in three years if Miami drafts a quarterback.

With all the free-agent movement, the best value on the board is probably Dak Prescott (+1800) after the Cowboys managed to franchise-tag the 26-year-old and re-sign No. 1 receiver Amari Cooper.

While the jury is still very much out on the Mike McCarthy hire, Dak will once again be at the controls of one of the league’s most-complete offenses after throwing for a career-high 4,902 yards (the second-best total in the NFL) and 30 touchdown passes in 2019.

Steve Starr

Steve is one of the many Americans who spends Sunday watching football on the couch and gorging on heart-clogging eats. He describes himself as a good father, great dog owner, and mediocre gambler and husband.

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