Lions to Cover vs Bills: NFL Thanksgiving Day Week 12 Picks

  • The Buffalo Bills (7-3) are 9.5-point road favorites over the Detroit Lions (4-6)
  • Detroit has played at home on Thanksgiving every year since 1934 and has a 37-43-2 all-time record 
  • Thursday’s matchup kicks CBS from Ford Field on November 24 at 12:30pm ET

Josh Allen and the Bills looked headed towards their third-straight loss on Sunday before catching fire in the second half against the Browns. After only managing three points in the first quarter, Buffalo piled up 342 total yards and 28 points in the final three quarters of their 31-23 victory over Cleveland.

Sean McDermott’s club kicks off the Thanksgiving Day slate against the Lions. Detroit has won three consecutive games to move into the outskirts of the NFC playoff race. Before we check the odds on this Thursday’s matchup, here’s where you can find the best Super Bowl betting tips and the top betting sites for NFL football in 2022.

Lions vs Bills

BetOnline ReviewSpreadMoney LineTotal Points
Buffalo Bills-9.5 (-110)-420Ov 54 (-110)
Detroit Lions+9.5 (-110)+340Un 54 (-110)

Buffalo back in the motor city

Buffalo will play their second game in Detroit in five days after snow forced the NFL to move last Sunday’s contest to the Motor City. Josh Allen struggled with accuracy issues throughout the Week 11 win over Cleveland. But, the Bills still managed to score points on every second-half possession. Allen should be able to keep it rolling against a Detroit defense allowing a league-worst 28.2 points per game.

The Lions’ D has improved of late, limiting the Giants to just 18 points on Sunday after holding the Packers to nine points in Week 9. Following an ugly start to his second season, Dan Campbell has his team playing inspired football of late. On Thursday, they’ll be looking for their fourth win in a row but the franchise is 37-43-2 all-time in the annual holiday classic.

Hutch coming on strong

Aidan Hutchinson (+1000) is behind two talented corners, Sauce Gardner (-120) and Tariq Woolen (+240), in the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year race. However, the Lions No. 2 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft has two picks in his past three games. He also secured a pivotal fumbled recovery in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s 31-18 win over New York.

Detroit currently has the league’s second-worst run defense (153.7 yards per game) and fifth-worst pass defense (262.2 ypg), but there have been glimmers of hope for Aaron Glenn’s unit of late.

Buffalo BillsTo Cover Spread
★★★★★
-9.5
Bet now
Detroit LionsTo Win
★★★★★
+340
Bet now

Lions vs Bills

Buffalo is favored by 9.5 points at Ford Field on Thursday and the over-under is set at a robust 54 points. Not surprising, considering the Bills trail only the Chiefs in points scored per game (28.1). And that Detroit has tallied at least 24 points in seven of their 10 games this season.

Dan Campbell will aim use his big offensive line and top-ten rushing offense to control time of possession. Jamaal Williams now leads the NFL with 12 rushing touchdowns after crossing the goal line three times versus the Giants. Quarterback Jared Goff was also kept clean against Wink Martindale’s defense on Sunday, taking zero sacks on 16 blitzes.

Best Bet

On their first three-game win streak since 2017, the Lions are feeling good. Buffalo could also be in danger of a letdown on a short week where they have to fly to and from Detroit two different times. While the Bills should ultimately prevail, we think Detroit will keep it close in this Thanksgiving Day football appetizer.

Final Score Prediction: Buffalo 27, Lions 23

Lions vs Bills-110
★★★★★
UNDER 54
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Steve Starr

Steve is one of the many Americans who spends Sunday watching football on the couch and gorging on delicious eats. He describes himself as a good father, great dog owner, and mediocre gambler and husband.

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