Buccaneers vs Chiefs: NFL Sunday Night Football Week 4 Picks

  • Kansas City (2-1) is a 2.5-point road favorite over Tampa Bay (2-1) in Week 4
  • The Buccaneers have allowed the fewest points in the NFL through three weeks
  • NBC’s Sunday Night Football kicks off from Raymond James Stadium on October 2 at 8:20pm ET

The location of the Super Bowl 55 rematch between the Buccaneers and Chiefs is up in the air with Hurricane Ian expected to touch down in Florida on Thursday. However, we expect the highly-anticipated battle between Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady to be on televisions across America on Sunday Night Football.

Before we check the odds on NBC’s big Week 4 game, here’s where you can find the best Super Bowl betting tips and the top betting sites for NFL football in 2022.

Buccaneers vs Chiefs

BetOnlineSpreadMoney LineTotal Points
Kansas City Chiefs-2.5 (-105)-140Ov 45 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+2.5 (-115)+120Un 45 (-110)

Both offenses struggling

After throwing five touchdowns in a season-opening win against Arizona, Patrick Mahomes sputtered in Weeks 2 and 3 versus the Chargers and Colts. Mahomes was only 20-of-35 for 262 yards, a touchdown and an interception in a 20-17 loss to Indianapolis on Sunday. Travis Kelce apologized to Chiefs fans for dropping a would-be TD in the endzone, but he’s the least of Kansas City’s problems on offense.

Tampa Bay also struggled to generate points in a 14-12 loss to the Packers in Week 3, but at least they have an excuse. Mike Evans missed the game with a suspension and both Chris Godwin and Julio Jones were out with injuries. Things can only get better for tablet-smashing Tom Brady.

Bucs own NFL’s best defense

Tampa Bay’s 31-9 Super Bowl 55 victory over Kansas City was the moment we all realized Mahomes was mortal. Todd Bowles’ unit registered three sacks and two interceptions while holding the Chiefs golden boy to 270 passing yards and zero touchdowns.

The Bucs defense looks just as ferocious this season, holding three-straight opponent to 14 points or fewer. They’re tied for the league lead in turnovers forced (8) and are allowing the fewest points per game in the NFL.

Kansas City ChiefsTo Cover Spread
★★★★★
-2.5
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Tampa Bay BuccaneersTo Win
★★★★★
+140
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Chiefs vs 49ers

Tampa Bay is a 2.5-point home underdog on Sunday Night Football. That number might make more sense if Hurricane Ian forces the game to be played on a neutral site. Otherwise, it’s difficult to see a talent- and speed-bereft KC attack moving the ball against Todd Bowles’ league-best defense.

With the return of Mike Evans, Brady will at least have one All-Pro receiver to trust on third down. Leonard Fournette also gives the Bucs a more reliable running game than the Chiefs. While he has been lucky in the TD department, Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran for zero yards on seven carries in Sunday’s loss.

Best Bet

The game total of 45 is low considering the matchup of two Hall of Fame quarterbacks, but don’t be tempted. Todd Bowles is the architect of the Super Bowl game plan that finally stopped Patrick Mahomes. And, today, the league continues to use his strategy, which de-emphasizes blitzing. For instance, the Colts only sent extra pass rushers on two of Mahomes’ 35 dropbacks in Week 3.

Tampa Bay will shutdown the Chiefs again on Sunday night.

Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay 27, Chiefs 16

Buccaneers vs Chiefs-110
★★★★★
UNDER 45
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Steve Starr

Steve is one of the many Americans who spends Sunday watching football on the couch and gorging on delicious eats. He describes himself as a good father, great dog owner, and mediocre gambler and husband.

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