Chiefs vs Bills: NFL Divisional Round Game Picks

  • BetOnline has Kansas City as 1.5-point home favorites over the Bills on Sunday
  • Buffalo enters the Divisional Round as the NFL’s No. 1 team in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric
  • The Chiefs have lost to each AFC team still alive in the playoffs — Buffalo (Wk 5), Tennessee (Wk 7) and Cincinnati (Wk 17)

Patrick Mahomes tossed a touchdown pass on five straight possessions in a 10-minute stretch versus the Steelers while Josh Allen manhandled New England, scoring seven TD drives in seven possessions.

After their respective Wild Card blowouts, the Chiefs and Bills will square off in the first playoff game in NFL history featuring two quarterbacks to each throw five touchdown passes the previous weekend.

Let’s examine the latest odds for this highly anticipated Divisional Round matchup and be sure to check out the top betting sites for NFL football in 2022, as well as tips for how to wager on the NFL Playoffs.

Chiefs vs Bills

BetOnlineSpreadMoney LineTotal Points
Buffalo Bills+1.5 (-105)+107Un 53.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs-1.5 (-115)-127Ov 53.5 (-110)

Unstoppable offenses

Winners of five in a row, the Bills didn’t punt, attempt a field goal, nor even reach fourth down in Saturday’s 47-17 whipping of the Patriots. Averaging 32.3 points over its past six contests, Buffalo’s offense has become unstoppable with Devin Singletary leading a revived rushing attack (163.8 yards per game over that same span) and Allen picking up chunk plays via the air and the ground.

Mahomes and the Chiefs have been just as deadly of late, scoring at least 28 points in their last six outings. Following an ugly 3-4 start, Kansas City has now won nine of 10 games after eliminating the turnovers (19 in the first eight games) that plagued them early in the year.

Recent history

The Chiefs defeated Buffalo 38-24 in last season’s AFC Championship Game – but the Bills avenged the loss in Week 5 with a 38-20 victory in Arrowhead Stadium. Allen threw for 315 yards and rushed for another 59 with four combined scores, while Mahomes tossed two picks and fumbled once.

Steve Spagnuolo’s blitz-happy defense has shown drastic improvement since that meeting – but ranked just 21st against the run and 27th against the pass this season. Meanwhile, Leslie Frazier’s top-ranked unit permitted the fewest yards (272.8) and points (17.0) per game in the NFL, albeit playing the easiest schedule of opponents, according to Football Outsiders.

Buffalo BillsTo Win
★★★★★
+107
Bet now
Buffalo BillsTo Cover
★★★★★
+1.5
Bet now

Best Bets

Bills to win (+107 moneyline). While Andy Reid has his offense humming again, don’t forget that Pittsburgh held KC scoreless on their first five drives. In Week 17, Cincinnati also limited the Chiefs to just three points in the second-half of a 34-31 comeback victory.

Buffalo’s defense finished the regular season with the highest pressure rate (30.8%) despite sending a blitz only 26% of the time. If the Bills can create pressure while sitting their All-Pro safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde in two-deep coverage, Mahomes could become impatient.


Bet the UNDER on 53.5 points. These two clubs averaged 56 total points in their past two meetings. However, we expect Buffalo to do a better job of containing Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, who combined for 290 yards and two scores on 24 catches in last year’s AFC title game.

The Chiefs are in the Divisional Round for the fourth-straight year, but this is where the music stops. Whether he uses his legs or his cannon arm, expect Josh Allen to lead the Bills to the AFC Championship Game by any means necessary.

Final Score Prediction: Buffalo 27, Chiefs 24.

Chiefs vs Bills-110
★★★★★
UNDER 53.5
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Steve Starr

Steve is one of the many Americans who spends Sunday watching football on the couch and gorging on delicious eats. He describes himself as a good father, great dog owner, and mediocre gambler and husband.

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