Chiefs smoke the Jaguars: NFL Divisional Round Picks

  • The Kansas City Chiefs are 8-point home favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Andy Reid is 27-4 all-time after a bye week and 2-0 in his career versus former pupil Doug Pederson 
  • Saturday’s AFC Divisional Round matchup kicks off from Arrowhead Stadium at 4:30pm ET on NBC

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are looking to reach their fifth-consecutive AFC Championship Game. They’ll host a red-hot Jaguars team fresh off a 27-point comeback win over the Chargers on Wild Card Weekend.

Before we check the odds on the AFC Divisional Round matchup, here’s where you can find the best Super Bowl betting tips and the top betting sites for NFL football in 2022.

Chiefs vs Jaguars

BetOnline ReviewSpreadMoney LineTotal Points
Jacksonville Jaguars+8 (-107)+360Ov 51.5 (-112)
Kansas City Chiefs-8 (-113)-450Un 51.5 (-108)

Lawrence doesn’t blink

Trevor Lawrence overcame four first-half interceptions to lead his Jaguars to a 31-30 victory over the Chargers on Saturday night. Showing impressive moxie, the sophomore quarterback erased a 27-point deficit by leading three long scoring drives in the second half (89, 68 and 70 yards). All and all, he finished with 288 yards, four TDs and four picks.

The comeback win doubled as a microcosm for Jacksonville’s season. Doug Pederson’s club fell to 3-7 following a 27-17 loss at Arrowhead in Week 10. Now they’re one step away from the AFC Championship Game after reeling off seven wins in their last eight games.

Mahomes undefeated in Divisional Rd

The Chiefs jumped out to a 20-0 lead in their first meeting with Jacksonville. Patrick Mahomes passed for 331 yards, four TDs and an INT in the win. The Jags’ D has shown steady improvement over the past two months, but dealing with the NFL’s MVP-elect is a different story. Playing his first season without Tyreek Hill, Mahomes steered the most efficient offense in football, throwing for a career-high 5,250 yards with 41 touchdowns.

The 27-year-old is 4-0 all-time in the Divisional Round with nine TDs, zero picks and a passer rating of 114.1. While it’s almost hard to believe, he’s the AFC’s oldest-remaining QB in the postseason.

Kansas City ChiefsTo Cover Spread
★★★★★
-8
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Jacksonville JaguarsTo Win
★★★★★
+360
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Kansas City vs Jacksonville

Home and rested after a bye week, Kansas City is an 8-point home favorite at Arrowhead Stadium. Although, the line has moved a point-and-a-half in the Jags’ direction since it opened. The over-under is set at 51.5 points. That makes sense given the Chiefs are the NFL’s highest-scoring team (29.2 points per week). Jacksonville is also top-ten in points (23.8) and yards per game. Additionally, both teams rank bottom-half in defensive DVOA.

One of the best subplots to this AFC Divisional Round battle is the shared history between Andy Reid and Doug Pederson. The latter both played and coached under Reid before winning a Super Bowl with Philadelphia as the head man. In his career, Reid is 27-4 after a bye.

Best Bet

Bettors know that Kansas City has a nasty habit of not covering the spread. The Chiefs squeaked by Buffalo (42-36 OT) and Cleveland (22-17) in the Divisional Round the past two years. However, Mahomes blew out the Texans (51-31) and the Colts (31-13) the previous two seasons.

Let’s make it an AFC South hat trick. Count on KC to cover versus the Jags on Saturday afternoon in a high-scoring affair.

Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 34, Jaguars 24

Chiefs vs Jaguars-112
★★★★★
OVER 51.5
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Steve Starr

Steve is one of the many Americans who spends Sunday watching football on the couch and gorging on heart-clogging eats. He describes himself as a good father, great dog owner, and mediocre gambler and husband.

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