- The 2022 NFL Coach of the Year race is wide open with no shortage of contenders
- Since 1990, teams of past winners have averaged 5 more wins than the previous year
- First-year head coaches have claimed 10 of the past 28 awards
When wagering on the AP NFL Coach of the Year award, forget about betting on the most creative play-callers or the leaders of the league’s best teams. No, in this case, you’re looking for coaches on mediocre clubs who can exceed expectations by winning more games than they did last season.
2022 Coach of the Year
Wide open race with no clear favorite
NFL Coach of the Year is one of the most unpredictable and wide-open award races with no clear favorite and a huge disparity on betting odds between various sportsbooks. So, other than shopping around, the best thing you can do is hone in on the coaches whose teams could win four to six more games this season.
Brian Daboll is a +500 favorite on BetOnline but still available at +1500 at Bovada. The former Bills offensive coordinator has two factors working in his favor. First, he’s taking over for Joe Judge and Jason Garrett in New York City, and second, first-year head coaches have captured 11 of the past 28 COY awards. The question is whether the Giants have the talent to win eight or nine games this season.
What will the offense look like under Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka?
22 Questions in 22 Days ⤵️
— Dan Salomone (@Dan_Salomone) July 6, 2022
Other first-year head coaches
Doug Pederson (+2000) may have the easiest act to follow in NFL history. Replacing the clown show that was Urban Meyer, the Super Bowl-winner will draw easy praise if Trevor Lawrence can take a leap in year two. However, Jimmy Johnson is the only man ever to win Coach of the Year winner with a losing record (7-9 in 1990), and the Jaguars have finished over .500 only once in the past 11 seasons.
Kevin O’Connell (+1800) and Mike McDaniel (+2200) are expected to lead offensive revolutions in Minnesota and Miami this year. But, since both worked under brilliant play designers in Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan, it’s hard to say how much they’re actually bringing to the table.
More COY contenders
Nathaniel Hackett (+2800) is another first-year head coach who could draw votes if the Broncos bump their win total from 7 in 2021 to 11+. While the AFC West is loaded, Russell Wilson’s arrival in the Mile High City will sure help his case.
Dan Campbell (+2000) only notched three victories in his first season in the Motor City, but almost everyone seemed to be impressed at how hard his Lions played every week. In a pedestrian NFC North division, Jared Goff would have to lead Detroit to eight or nine wins for the knee-biter to have a shot.
— Woodward Sports Network (@woodwardsports) July 7, 2022
Frank Reich (+2800) isn’t a perfect fit for the criteria we laid out above, but with Matt Ryan at the helm and Jonathan Taylor fully unlocked, the Colts could reel off a 13-4 season in the miserable AFC South.
See below the top sportsbooks where you can wager online and choose the best one for you: