NFL Odds – How Will the New NFL Coaches Do in 2015-16?

With the hiring of Dan Quinn (pictured) in Atlanta, all 32 NFL teams once again have head coaches.

Seven teams will be under new management in 2015-16, specifically:

  • Atlanta Falcons – Dan Quinn (former DC in Seattle; replaces Mike Smith);
  • Buffalo BillsRex Ryan (former head coach of the NY Jets; replaces Doug Marrone);
  • Chicago BearsJohn Fox (former head coach in Denver; replaces Marc Trestman);
  • Denver BroncosGary Kubiak (former OC in Baltimore; replaces John Fox);
  • New York JetsTodd Bowles (former DC in Arizona; replaces Rex Ryan);
  • Oakland RaidersJack Del Rio (former DC in Denver; replaces Tony Sparano); and
  • San Francisco 49ersJim Tomsula (former D-Line coach in San Francisco; replaces Jim Harbaugh).

Inevitably, those teams’ rosters will look different on opening day than they do now. But we have a rough idea of what each new boss will have to work with. Some (i.e. Kubiak) are walking into pretty luxurious circumstances; others (i.e. Del Rio) are basically starting from scratch.

Based on the rosters as they currently stand, we make some early predictions on who’s going to impress in their new digs and who’s going to struggle. We also take a look at some fun props, like who’s going to stick his foot in his mouth first (cough cough Rex Ryan).

While the immediate future looks bright for Kubiak, it’s clear that his new star QB (that’s Peyton Manning, for you NFL ignoramuses) only has one or two years left in the league. Looking past the Manning-era, Denver’s prospects are decidedly murkier. Meanwhile, if the likes of Bowles and Ryan can get their hands on a legitimate NFL quarterback, big things could loom in New York and Buffalo.

2015-16 New NFL Head Coach Odds:

Which new head coach will win the most games in 2015-16:
  • Kubiak (Denver): 1/1
  • Tomsula (San Francisco): 3/1
  • Quinn (Atlanta): 7/1
  • Fox (Chicago): 9/1
  • Ryan (Buffalo): 11/1
  • Bowles (NY Jets): 50/1
  • Del Rio (Oakland): 100/1
Which new head coaches will make the playoffs in 2015-16:
  • Kubiak (Denver): 1/2
  • Tomsula (San Francisco): 7/4
  • Quinn (Atlanta): 2/1
  • Fox (Chicago): 5/1
  • Ryan (Buffalo): 5/1
  • Bowles (NY Jets): 20/1
  • Del Rio (Oakland): 40/1

Which new head coach will get to a Super Bowl first:

  • Kubiak (Denver): 3/2
  • Tomsula (San Francisco): 7/3
  • Quinn (Atlanta): 13/2
  • Ryan (Buffalo): 10/1
  • Fox (Chicago): 10/1
  • Bowles (NY Jets): 15/1
  • Del Rio (Oakland): 30/1

Which new head coach will win the Super Bowl first:

  • Kubiak (Denver): 5/2
  • Tomsula (San Francisco): 7/2
  • Quinn (Atlanta): 17/4
  • Ryan (Buffalo): 5/1
  • Fox (Chicago): 7/1
  • Bowles (NY Jets): 8/1
  • Del Rio (Oakland): 15/1

Which new head coach will get fired first:

  • Tomsula (San Francisco): 3/1
    • Tomsula has had a crack as interim coach before. The Niners have all the pieces and won’t tolerate losing for very long. We don’t necessarily think Tomsula will lose, but if he does, the leash may be short.
  • Fox (Chicago): 7/2
  • Ryan (Buffalo): 7/2
    • The Bills have a ton of talent on their roster and need to see improvement (record-wise) imminently to be satisfied. But that will be tough to do without a bona fide QB. That makes Ryan a good candidate for the first ouster.
  • Kubiak (Denver): 5/1
    • If things go badly in Denver, Kubiak could be shown the door quick-snap. Of course, the chances of things going too badly with Peyton at the helm aren’t great.
  • Del Rio (Oakland): 10/1
    • Expectations are pretty low in Oakland. This should buy Del Rio some time, regardless of the Raiders’ performance.
  • Quinn (Atlanta): 10/1
  • Bowles (NY Jets): 14/1
    • Both Quinn and Bowles are part of the next generation of NFL coaches. Like Gus Bradley in Jacksonville, both will likely have some time to prove their genius (especially Bowles, who’s walking into a bad situation).

Which new head coach will improve his team’s record the most in his first season:

  • Quinn (Atlanta): 3/1
  • Tomsula (San Francisco): 4/1
  • Fox (Chicago): 5/1
  • Bowles (NY Jets): 5/1
  • Del Rio (Oakland): 5/1
  • Ryan (Buffalo): 9/1
  • Kubiak (Denver): 25/1
    • There just isn’t much room for improvement on 12-4, not with the parity in the NFL these days. Every other team has a legitimate shot at winning at least two or three more games next year. The Niners (8-8) and Falcons (5-11) were the biggest under-performers, based on sheer talent.

Which new head coach will decrease his team’s record the most in his first season:

  • Ryan (Buffalo): 4/3
    • Buffalo managed nine wins last year without a true #1 QB. The defense should be great, again, but it can be tough to win without a quarterback.
  • Kubiak (Denver): 5/3
    • The Broncos could lose two more games than last year and still have a solid season. With the Chargers and Chiefs both poised to challenge the Broncos in the AFC West (and Denver having the third-toughest strength of schedule), there’s a decent chance the Broncos fall.
  • Tomsula (San Francisco): 4/1
    • While San Fran has a legitimate shot to be a lot better next year, they finished .500 in 2014-15 and have room to drop (more so than the next four teams, anyway). There’s always a chance the wheels come off in 2015-16.
  • Fox (Chicago): 12/1
    • Cutler is not a great pivot; but he’s better than five wins, isn’t he?
  • Bowles (NY Jets): 15/1
  • Del Rio (Oakland): 15/1
  • Quinn (Atlanta): 20/1
    • Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White are going to improve, especially with Atlanta playing one of the easier schedules in the NFL.

Which new head coach will get in trouble first for an inappropriate comment in the media:

  • Ryan (Buffalo): 5/6
  • Tomsula (San Francisco): 6/1
  • Fox (Chicago): 7/1
  • Del Rio (Oakland): 9/1
    • Both Fox and Del Rio can get heated. If the Bears struggle out of the gate, Fox’s temper might surface post-game. Same for Del Rio in Oakland, though he’s likely to take a few early losses better than Fox, given the personnel discrepancy between the two teams.
  • Kubiak (Denver): 12/1
  • Quinn (Atlanta): 12/1
  • Bowles (NY Jets): 12/1


Do you disagree with any of the above? Do you think Rex Ryan’s Bills are going to end the Pats’ run of division titles? Let us know in the comments. Then check back during the season to see how right we were all along!

(Photo credit: Mike Morris [CC BY-SA 2.0 (], via Wikimedia Commons.)


Alexander is the MTS editor-in-chief. Frank, Alex, and Geoff brought him in when they realized that their betting expertise far surpassed their grammatical abilities. He loves overanalyzing college basketball trends. Talking to him during the first weekend of March Madness is like talking to a wall. A very focused wall, but a wall nonetheless.

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