NFL Post-Free Agency Super Bowl 54 Odds: Who’s Rising and Falling?

Steve StarrSteve Starr | March 15, 2019
Odell Beckham Jr in a Cleveland Browns uniform.
The acquisition of Odell Beckham Jr has improved the Cleveland Browns’ Super Bowl 54 odds dramatically. Photo credit: @tbdaniel 15 (Twitter).
  • Bovada has updated Super Bowl 54 odds for all 32 NFL teams post-free agency
  • The Cleveland Browns are now up to +1400 after being recommended at +2200 before free agency began
  • Are the Indianapolis Colts now the best value on the board at +1800?

With the dust still settling after a wild few days of NFL free agency that featured trades of two of the game’s most magnificent and mercurial wide receivers, there are a couple of big developments to share.

First, there’s a good chance I’ll lose my day job after constant refreshing of Rotoworld caused my productivity to plunge 75%. Second, and of more concern to you, there has been major movement in the Super Bowl 54 Futures at Bovada.

Let’s see which teams are rising and falling

Odds to Win Super Bowl 54 (2020)

Teams Odds to Win (as of Mar. 15, 2019)
New England Patriots +700
Kansas City Chiefs +750
Los Angeles Rams +800
New Orleans Saints +900
Chicago Bears +1400
Cleveland Browns +1400
Los Angeles Chargers +1500
Philadelphia Eagles +1600
Indianapolis Colts +1800
Dallas Cowboys +2000
Green Bay Packers +2000
Minnesota Vikings +2000
Pittsburgh Steelers +2000
Houston Texans +2800
Seattle Seahawks +2800
Baltimore Ravens +3000
San Francisco 49ers +3000
Atlanta Falcons +3300
Jacksonville Jaguars +3300
Tennessee Titans +5000
Carolina Panthers +5500
Denver Broncos +6000
New York Giants +6000
Oakland Raiders +6600
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7000
Detroit Lions +8000
New York Jets +8000
Buffalo Bills +10000
Arizona Cardinals +12500
Cincinnati Bengals +12500
Miami Dolphins +12500
Washington Redskins +15000

Riser: Cleveland Browns (+1400)

After recommending Cleveland (+2200) as a spectacular buy in my pre-free agency column last week, experts are now calling it the most lucrative piece of financial advice since the stock tip that got linebacker Mychal Kendricks busted for insider trading.

With the Browns’ odds all the way up to +1400 after acquiring Odell Beckham Jr., there’s no longer much value here, and I instead recommend you banging the over on OBJ prop bets.

Faller: New York Giants (+6600)

GM Dave Gettleman is systematically driving the G-Men into the ground and Big Blue’s odds are along for the ride, dropping from +5000 just last week.

While New York brought in receiver Golden Tate, safety Jabrill Peppers, guard Kevin Zeitler and extra draft capital (1st and 3rd-round picks in 2019), the franchise is still not turning the page on The Book of Eli.

Sure, there’s a good chance John Elway thinks Manning is entering his prime too, but everyone else has long given up on the elderly, noodle-armed QB. Fantasy owners, pray for Saquon.

Riser: Oakland Raiders (+6600)

With all due respect to offensive tackle Trent Brown and speed receiver Tyrell Williams, those additions have little to do with Oakland cutting their Super Bowl 54 odds in half from +12500 to +6600. Antonio Brown is the real chain mover here after he forced his way out of Pittsburgh.

While Mr. Big Chest has nothing but bro hugs for his new quarterback so far, I’d bet on Derek Carr making AB’s Black Hole experience feel more like the Sunken Place.

Faller: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3300)

Breaking Jason Mendoza’s heart, the Jags replaced quarterback Blake Bortles with a man with a long, girthy new contract, Mr. Nick Foles. While one might expect the team’s Super Bowl chances to improve after the $88 million signing, the odds actually fell from +3000 to +3300.

That’s still too rich. As far as AFC South longshots go, I prefer the Titans (+5000) after the team brought in bulldozing run-blocker Rodger Saffold, slot man Adam Humphries, and CFL/NFL legend Cameron Wake.

Riser: New York Jets (+8000)

While it remains impossible to tell if Le’Veon Bell made a smart decision to sit out a year, let’s put this into proper perspective: the man took a year off work and still signed a contract that will pay him no less than $25 million.

Despite being left at the altar by Vikings linebacker Anthony Barr, Gang Green looks much improved after bringing in Bell, inside linebacker C.J. Mosley, and slot receiver Jamison Crowder. It’s no surprise their Super Bowl odds leapt from +12500 to +8000.

If Sam Darnold makes a similar leap under new coach Adam Gase, the Pats *might* have one worthy opponent in their division.

Faller: Indianapolis Colts (+1800)

After mostly sitting out of free agency despite having the most salary-cap space in the NFL, the Colts’ odds to win the Lombardi worsened slightly from +1600 to +1800. While this isn’t a drastic development, I believe Indianapolis is now the best value bet on the board.

The Colts have a top-five quarterback in Andrew Luck and one of the game’s top offensive minds in coach Frank Reich. But here’s why you need to place your bets before April’s NFL Draft.

GM Chris Ballard is the reigning Executive of the Year after selecting two First-Team All-Pros (Quenton Nelson and Darius Leonard) with his first two picks last year, so pundits will be lining up to praise him after every single pick. Their odds are only going to get shorter.

Steve Starr

Steve is one of the many Americans who spends Sunday watching football on the couch and gorging on heart-clogging eats. He describes himself as a good father, great dog owner, and mediocre gambler and husband.

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