NFL Week 14 Predictions & Best Bets: Chargers Will Roll, Jets Won’t Score

  • Week 13 saw another positive ROI and I’m nearing the $1000-mark for the season.
  • There aren’t many spreads I love in Week 14, but there are a few totals that look good.
  • The Bengals are getting two touchdowns, and I’m still locking up an ATS loss for Cincy. 

One big moneyline (Bucs over Panthers at +165) and one ATS play (Broncos-4.5 at the Bengals) paid off in Week 13, while the Saints ruined my three-team teaser. All in all, the Locks of the Week finished $155.91 on the positive side. Here’s where they stand for the year after 13 weeks.

  • “Locks of the Week” 2018 ROI: +$934.76 (based on $100 wagers)
  • Week 13 ROI: +$155.91

Like Sisyphus, I’m ready to keep the ball rolling in Week 14. Unlike Sisyphus, I’m going to generate something productive of the momentum. As always, predictions for every game are contained below, but I only recommend putting money on the Locks of the Week, which you can find at the very end.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans

Time & Date: 5:20 PM ET, Thursday, Dec. 6th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Jaguars +4.5 (-110) +190 O 37.5 (-110)
Titans -4.5 (-110) -230 U 37.5 (-110)

The Jaguar defense looked like the 2017 version last week, shutting out the Colts (6-0). But they have had little success on the road this year and Cody Kessler does not have what it takes to put up points on a solid Tennessee defense. Mariota will do just enough to win and cover.

Score Prediction: 20-14 Titans

Best Bet: Under 37.5 (-110)

Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 9th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Falcons +5.5 (-110) +205 O 49.5 (-110)
Packers -5.5 (-110) -245 U 49.5 (-110)

The Packers’ shocking home loss to Arizona (20-17) last week cost Mike McCarthy his job. But quietly, Atlanta is coming off a performance that was almost as bad, totalling just 131 total yards in a home loss to Baltimore (26-16). Seven of their points came on a defensive TD. These are two teams playing awful football. Give me the Under again.

Score Prediction: 24-20 Packers

Best Bet: Under 49.5 (-110)

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 9th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Patriots -8.0 (-110) -400 O 47.0 (-110)
Dolphins +8.0 (-110) +300 U 47.0 (-110)

Miami was outgained 415 to 175 by Buffalo at home last week, yet escaped with a 21-17 win. This is not a good team, and now is not the time to play New England, which has won 8 of 9 and needs to keep winning in order to earn a playoff bye. The Pats also destroyed Miami, 38-7, in Week 4.

Score Prediction: 35-20 Patriots

Best Bet: Patriots -8.0 (-110)

New York Giants vs Washington

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 9th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Giants -3.5 (-110) -190 O 41.0 (-110)
Washington +3.5 (-110) +165 U 41.0 (-110)

Here’s all you need to know: Mark Sanchez is starting at QB for Washington. Eli Manning is not an elite quarterback anymore, but there’s still a big gap between “not elite” and “Mark Sanchez.” Washington’s offensive line is also in shambles after further injuries in Week 13.

Score Prediction: 23-14 Giants

Best Bet: Giants -3.5 (-110)

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 9th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Colts +4.5 (-110) +195 O 49.5 (-110)
Texans -4.5 (-110) -235 U 49.5 (-110)

The Colts are coming off a shutout loss to Jacksonville, a game in which they were held to just 265 total yards. That was a big surprise given how their offense had been rolling heading in, scoring at least 27 points in five straight wins. They now face a much tougher test in Houston, winners of nine straight and owners of a top-three defense. Count on Andrew Luck to put a few points on the board and help this one hit the Over.

Score Prediction: 28-24 Texans

Best Bet: Over 49.5 (-110)

Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 9th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Ravens +7.0 (-110) +240 O 53.0 (-110)
Chiefs -7.0 (-110) -290 U 53.0 (-110)

Lamar Jackson has led Baltimore to three straight wins since taking over for an injured Joe Flacco, but he’s yet to face a team or an environment like Kansas City. His wins came against Cincinnati, Oakland, and Atlanta. While the AFC-leading Chiefs won’t be completely shutdown by this solid Baltimore defense, this is still a game that’s going to be played in the 20s.

Score Prediction: 27-23 Chiefs

Best Bet: Under 53.0 (-110)

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 9th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Saints -8.0 (-110) -400 O 55.5 (-110)
Buccaneers +8.0 (-110) +300 U 55.5 (-110)

Jameis Winston is playing great football all of a sudden, throwing for over 560 yards, 4 TDs and zero INTs in back to back wins. But now he gets a pissed off New Orleans team that was held to ten points by Dallas in Week 13 and now needs to win to have any chance at top seed in the NFC. inconsistency is what has plagued Winston his entire career, so counting on him to string together three great games is not a safe bet.

Score Prediction: 38-27 Saints

Best Bet: Saints -8.0 (-110)

Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 9th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Panthers -1.5 (-115) -130 O 47.0 (-110)
Browns +1.5 (-105) +110 U 47.0 (-110)

The Panthers are a horrible road team, going 1-5 outside of Carolina. The Browns are above .500 at home at 3-2-1 with wins over the Jets, Ravens, and Falcons. Not a murderer’s row, but Carolina isn’t a killer. There’s value on the Browns’ moneyline.

Score Prediction: 24-22 Browns

Best Bet: Browns’ moneyline (+110)

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 9th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Jets +3.5 (-115) +160 O 38.5 (-110)
Bills -3.5 (-105) -190 U 38.5 (-110)

Somehow, some way, the Bills scored 41 points when these teams met three weeks ago (41-10). That’s not happening again. The Jets have only scored more than 17 points once in their last six games. Under all day.

Score Prediction: 17-13 Bills

Best Bet: Under 38.5 (-110)

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 9th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Broncos -6.0 (-105) -260 O 45.5 (-110)
49ers +6.0 (-115) +215 U 45.5 (-110)

The 49ers have lost back to back road games by 18 and 27 points, but now they return home, where they’ve been a bit better this year. Eight of 12 Denver games this year have been decided by a touchdown or less. This run-first offense isn’t built to blow people out.

Score Prediction: 24-20 Broncos

Best Bet: 49ers +6.0 (-115)

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers

Time & Date: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 9th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Bengals +14.0 (-110) +650 O 47.5 (-110)
Chargers -14.0 (-110) -1100 U 47.5 (-110)

What do you get when you pair Jeff Driskel with the NFL’s worst defense? The NFL’s worst team. That’s what Cincinnati has become. This will be a name-the-score game for the high-powered Chargers, who still have dreams of winning the AFC West after a huge comeback in Pittsburgh last Sunday (33-30).

Score Prediction: 40-14 Chargers

Best Bet: Chargers -14.0 (-110)

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys

Time & Date: 4:25 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 9th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Eagles +3.5 (-110) +165 O 43.0 (-110)
Cowboys -3.5 (-110) -190 U 43.0 (-110)

The Cowboys own a one-game lead in the NFC East and the division title will be all-but decided if Dallas wins in Week 14. It’s hard to say that the Eagles are “back” after they beat a Mark Sanchez-led Washington team at home in Week 13. But this is going to be a tight game in all likelihood given Dallas’ penchant to lean on the run game and the fact that Philly’s D is much better on the ground than in the secondary.

Score Prediction: 24-23 Cowboys

Best Bet: Eagles +3.5 (-110)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Oakland Raiders

Time & Date: 4:25 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 9th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Steelers -11.0 (-105) -750 O 51.5 (-110)
Raiders +11.0 (-115) +475 U 51.5 (-110)

Pittsburgh has a habit of laying a couple eggs every season, leading to some anomalous results. But they’ve kind of done that the last two weeks, so a bounce-back effort against an overmatched Oakland team is the safer bet.

Score Prediction: 30-17 Steelers

Best Bet: Steelers -11.0 (-105)

Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals

Time & Date: 4:25 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 9th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Lions -3.0 (EVEN) -145 O 40.5 (-110)
Cardinals +3.0 (-120) +125 U 40.5 (-110)

The Cardinals have lost all five of their OL starters now that DJ Humphries is on IR. Luckily their defense is more than good enough to staunch this very limited Detroit offense that’s been held to 16 points in back to back games.

Score Prediction: 20-17 Cardinals

Best Bet: Cardinals’ moneyline (+125)

Los Angeles Rams vs Chicago Bears

Time & Date: 5:20 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 9th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Rams -3.0 (-110) -160 O 51.5 (-110)
Bears +3.0 (-110) +140 U 51.5 (-110)

The return of Mitchell Trubisky will help the Bears hang with the mighty Rams. Look for the Chicago defense to make another statement, specifically, that the Bears are a legitimate Super Bowl contender when fully healthy.

Score Prediction: 27-24 Bears

Best Bet: Bears +3.0 (-110)

Minnesota Vikings vs Seattle Seahawks

Time & Date: 5:15 PM ET, Monday, Dec. 10th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Vikings +3.5 (-120) +150 O 45.5 (-110)
Seahawks -3.5 (EVEN) -170 U 45.5 (-110)

Kirk Cousins is coming off his worst game as a Vikings, a two-interception effort in New England. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have won two straight and eclipsed Minny for the first Wild Card berth in the NFC. A win in Week 14 would essentially almost clinch a playoff berth for Seattle. Their +60 point differential is a good indication of just how much stronger and more balanced they are than this Minnesota team (+5), which has no running game and has regressed a little on defense.

Score Prediction: 27-20 Seahawks

Best Bet: Seahawks -3.5 (EVEN)

Locks of the Week

  • Chargers -14.0 (-110)
  • Colts vs Texans: Over 49.5 (-110)
  • Jets vs Bills: Under 38.5 (-110)

Alexander is the MTS editor-in-chief. Frank, Alex, and Geoff brought him in when they realized that their betting expertise far surpassed their grammatical abilities. He loves overanalyzing college basketball trends. Talking to him during the first weekend of March Madness is like talking to a wall. A very focused wall, but a wall nonetheless.

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