Opening Super Bowl Odds Favor Chiefs Over Niners; Who’s the Best Bet?

  • The Chiefs (-125) are listed as 1-point favorites over the 49ers in Super Bowl 54
  • Patrick Mahomes has compiled 721 combined yards and nine total touchdowns in two-straight playoff comebacks
  • San Francisco (+105) is a slight underdog, but the line has already moved a half-point in their direction

With the Super Bowl missing a supervillain for the first time in four years, you might find it difficult deciding who to root for between Kansas City and San Francisco when they meet on Sunday, Feb. 2nd, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami (6:30 PM ET).

Luckily, making a wager on the big game is a surefire way to pick a side. Andy Reid’s Chiefs opened as 1.5-point chalk on Sunday night before the line quickly moved to KC as just 1-point favorites.

Let’s review the latest odds and offer some early thoughts on who will win the Lombardi Trophy.


Teams Spread Moneyline Total Points
Kansas City Chiefs -1.0 -125 Ov 53.5
San Francisco 49ers +1.0 +105 Un 53.5

Odds as of Monday, Jan. 20.


The question any bettor must ask themselves is, “can Patrick Mahomes actually be stopped?” San Francisco famously boasts four first-round picks on their defensive line, but no quarterback is better at evading pressure and extending plays than number 15.

Last season’s MVP swung the tide of Sunday’s early game, scampering for a 27-yard second-quarter touchdown in the Chiefs’ 35-24 win over the Cinderella Titans.

Over the past two weeks, the 24-year-old has thrown for 615 yards and eight scores in overcoming a 10-point deficit versus Tennessee and a 24-point sinkhole to the Texans.

Mahomes’ ability to claw back from early-game holes is not good news for Kyle Shanahan, who famously blew a 28-3 lead to the Patriots in Super Bowl 51 while coordinating the Atlanta Falcons’ offense.

His 49ers team also permitted the Packers to score touchdowns on their first three possessions of the second half Sunday, and gave up three straight TDs in a nail-biting Week 17 win over Russell Wilson’s Seahawks.


On the same day that Derrick Henry was held to 69 yards on 19 carries, undrafted Niners running back Raheem Mostert raced through gaping holes for 220 yards and four touchdowns.

Coach Shanahan called only eight pass plays the entire game (versus 42 rushing attempts) in the 37-20 obliteration of the Packers, and will soon become part of the first father-son combination to both coach a Super Bowl.

It’s almost fair to wonder if Jimmy Garoppolo is going to be rusty in two weeks after throwing just 17 passes for 208 yards (with a TD and a pick) over the past two games.

However, Shanahan should have a full arsenal of winning plays available for George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders after barely dusting off his pass-catching weapons against Green Bay and Minnesota.

While things in the NFL rarely go to script, Super Bowl 54 in Miami projects to be a high-scoring battle between two offensive innovators in Shanahan and Reid, who is still looking to win his first championship despite having the seventh-most wins in league history.

Given the unignorable Mahomes factor, I’ll take the Chiefs (and the OVER) in an epic 32-31 comeback win.

Steve Starr

Steve is one of the many Americans who spends Sunday watching football on the couch and gorging on heart-clogging eats. He describes himself as a good father, great dog owner, and mediocre gambler and husband.

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