2021 NFL Props: Will Mahomes Lead League in Passing Touchdowns?

  • BetOnline favors Patrick Mahomes (+325) to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns in 2021
  • Dak Prescott (+1000) was on pace for career-highs before dislocating his ankle last year
  • Matthew Stafford (+1800) could see his numbers skyrocket in Sean McVay’s system

After a tedious summer holdout, last year’s NFL MVP and passing touchdowns leader is back at Packers training camp. But despite throwing 48 TDs in 2020, Aaron Rodgers (+650) finds himself behind Tom Brady (+525) and Patrick Mahomes (+325) on the board below.

Let’s look at the full list of quarterbacks and make our best bets on what favorites and longshots might lead the NFL in endzone strikes this coming season. Also be sure to check out our tips for betting on NFL football games.

2021 NFL Passing Touchdowns Leader

Patrick Mahomes+325
Tom Brady+525
Aaron Rodgers+650
Josh Allen+900
Russell Wilson+900
Dak Precott+1000
Justin Herbert+1800
Kirk Cousins+1800
Matt Ryan+1800
Matthew Stafford+1800
Ryan Tannehill+2200
Baker Mayfield+2500
Jameis Winston+2500
Joe Burrow+2500
Ben Roethlisberger+3300
Derek Carr+3300
Kyler Murray+3300
Lamar Jackson+3300
Trevor Lawrence+3300
Carson Wentz+5000
Daniel Jones+5000
Ryan Fitzpatrick+5000
Sam Darnold+5000
Tua Tagovailoa+5000

Who else but Mahomes?

Patrick Mahomes (+325) famously tossed 50 touchdowns in his first season as Chiefs starter in 2018. After injuries limited him to 26 passing scores in 2019, the 25-year-old finished fourth in the league last year with 38 TDs, behind Rodgers (48), Tom Brady (40) and Russell Wilson (40).

The case for Tom Terrific at +525 is he’ll be more comfortable throwing to Evans, Godwin, AB and Gronk in year two in Bruce Arian’s offense – even though he’s now 43 years old. Oddsmakers don’t have much faith that Pete Carroll and new Seahawks offensive coordinator Shane Waldron will “Let Russ Cook,” installing Wilson at +900.

Josh Allen finished only one touchdown pass behind Mahomes in 2020, bettering his 20 TD/9 INT stat-line in his sophomore campaign to 37 TD/ 10 INT last season. The Bill starter also has 25 rushing scores in his first three years – and that’s why he’s a few spots down on the board at +900.

Before suffering a season-ending leg injury in the Cowboys’ fifth game of the year, Dak Prescott (+1000) had thrown for nine scores and was on pace for a franchise-record 6,000-plus passing yards. Dak averaged 4.25 TDs on the ground during his first four healthy seasons in the league, but one would assume he’d prefer to utilize his loaded receiving corps near the goal line this year.

Patrick MahomesPassing TDs Leader
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Dak PrescottPassing TDs Leader
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Quarterback longshots

Justin Herbert (+1800) broke almost every conceivable NFL rookie passing record during the 2020 season, including most passing touchdowns (31) and most completions (396). Now free of Anthony Lynn and his outdated offensive philosophies, the 23-year-old could make another leap in OC Joe Lombardi’s new system behind an improved O-Line.

Kirk Cousins (+1800) doesn’t seem to get any respect for his 35 TD/ 13 INT line last season – however, Mike Zimmer’s love of the run games makes him a weak wager. We’re also bearish on Ryan Tannehill (+2200) with his former OC Arthur Smith now in Atlanta. Matt Ryan (+1800) could be rejuvenated under his new head coach, but it’s hard to get too excited after the Julio trade.

Instead, the two best values we see on the board are Matthew Stafford (+1800) in year one in Sean McVay’s Rams system and Joe Burrow (+2500) in his return from a gruesome knee injury. The Bengals sophomore might have the best group of pass catchers in the league with rookie Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, and Cincinnati’s putrid defense ensures he’ll always be throwing the rock.

As for Stafford, don’t forget that Jared Goff threw 32 TDs in LA in 2018. The 33-year-old career Lion could be in for  a career year in La-La Land.

Matt StaffordPassing Yards Leader
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Steve Starr

Steve is one of the many Americans who spends Sunday watching football on the couch and gorging on delicious eats. He describes himself as a good father, great dog owner, and mediocre gambler and husband.

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