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Keyword: super bowl mvp predictions
Kw2: super bowl mvp pick
Title: QBs Sam Darnold, Drake Maye Favorites to win Super Bowl MVP
Metatitle: Super Bowl MVP Picks | 2-8-2026 | My Top Sportsbooks
Meta description: Read My Top Sportsbooks’s expert breakdown of Super Bowl MVP predictions and explore stats to make your best Super Bowl MVP pick.
URL: qbs-sam-darnold-drake-maye-favorites-win-super-bowl-mvp-2-8-2026
The highest possible individual honor available to Super Bowl participants is the Most Valuable Player award. Consequently, one of the highest honors a bettor can achieve is to predict the outcome correctly. Fortunately, with access to top online sportsbooks, we have the opportunity to achieve that glory. Continue reading to access expert Super Bowl MVP predictions and detailed stats to make your Super Bowl MVP pick.
- National Football League
- New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks
- Sunday, February 8, 2026
- 6:30 PM EST
- Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
- NBC, Peacock
Super Bowl MVP Predictions: Who do the Sportsbooks Favor?
As the starting quarterback for the odds-on favorite Seahawks, it is no surprise that Sam Darnold (+130) is priced as the leading contender to win the Super Bowl 60 Most Valuable Player Award. Drake Maye follows suit at (+240) along with Darnold’s top target Jaxon Smith-Njigba at (+500). Seattle’s running back Kenneth Walker III trails close behind at odds of (+750). All other candidates are lined at 33:1 or greater.
NFL Super Bowl MVP 
Sam Darnold +125 +125 +130 Drake Maye +240 +240 +230 Jaxon Smith-Njigba +475 +450 +500 Kenneth Walker III +750 +650 +700 Rhamondre Stevenson +3300 +2500 +3000 Rashid Shaheed +3300 +3000 +4000 Stefon Diggs +4000 +5000 +5000
Access our guide to top 2026 NFL football betting sites. Also explore our dedicated page on where to bet on the Super Bowl this year.
Sam Darnold and Drake Maye Unsurprisingly Lead the Race
Super Bowl MVP bettors have traditionally flocked towards the gunslingers, and their inferences are correct more often than not. The MVP trophy has been handed to a quarterback 57% of the time since its induction. Since quarterbacks touch the ball on almost every offensive possession, they have ample opportunity to run up long stat sheets and will likely be smack-dab in the middle of almost every clutch moment. Additionally, QBs also generally represent the highest level of leadership within the playable roster of any team.
In the specific cases of Sam Darnold and Drake Maye, both will look to build up first downs, avoid mistakes, and efficiently score in the red zone. In tightly contested affairs, the MVP voters love to reward quarterbacks who did not commit costly turnovers, even if their stat line isn’t all too impressive. Drake Maye already has garnered the admiration of media members and voters for his efforts in the regular season, with Maye firmly in the running to win the regular season MVP award.
With all that in mind, I struggle to see any value in the current odds on Darnold or Maye. At a price of (+130), it is implied that Darnold wins MVP in 63% of the scenarios in which the Seahawks win. For Maye, the implication is he wins MVP in 85% of Patriots-winning scenarios. That’s a ridiculous number, even for an exceptional player like him. Even Tom Brady only won MVP in 71% of his Super Bowl victories. Drake Maye potentially would not have won a game MVP award in the turnover-filled battle with the Texans, for example.
Stefon Diggs: Dark Horse to Win MVP?
If Maye is getting overpriced to win MVP in the permutations in which the Patriots are victorious, then the logical assumption is that there is plenty of value to be had in the ensemble cast across the Patriots roster. A trendy pick I’ve seen across various sports betting platforms is Rhamondre Stevenson, the Patriots next-likely MVP candidate according to betting lines. But I disagree with his candidacy for several reasons
Stevenson’s importance is largely inflated from a strong playoff run buoyed by an easy path. The Pats were in the lead in a vast majority of their game time against the Chargers and Texans, and the Broncos game devolved into a messy snow game where running the ball was the safest bet.
If this game is close or if the Seahawks take control early, the Patriots will be on the back foot playing keep-up, requiring more aggressive playcalling. Stefon Diggs thrives when the lights are bright with multiple MVP-worthy performances in primetime games this season. If he can rack up around 10 catches for over 100 yards and a touchdown or two, he’s certainly in the running to claim Most Valuable Player.
Should You Bet on a Defensive/Special Teams Player to Win Super Bowl MVP?
If we are to continue to look outside of the quarterback position for value in our Super Bowl MVP predictions, then we have to think outside the box. Offensive skill positions are favorites outside of QBs, but there is a shocking stat worth considering. Defense is the most common non-QB Super Bowl MVP position with 10 defensive winners, compared to nine WR winners, seven RBs, and no (!) tight ends.
Recent defensive winners include the Seahawks’ Malcolm Smith and the Broncos’ Von Miller. Last year, some sportsbooks offered a market on “Any Defensive Player” to win MVP at around 20:1 odds. That is an excellent proposition considering defensive winners occur 17% of the time (10/59), compared to 20:1 odds which imply a defensive MVP winner occurs 4.8% of the time. Of course, 59 Super Bowls is still a relatively small sample size in the world of statistics, but the edge here is so massive it must be considered.
If you fancy your chances of picking the right defensive or special teams player to win the MVP award, then your odds can dramatically increase. See Marcus Jones, the phenomenal kick and punt returner for the Patriots, priced at a juicy (+12500). Or the destructive defensive tackle Milton Williams (+20000). A few sacks with a forced fumble while stifling the rush attack could convince voters a DT like Williams tilted the game in the Patriots’ favor.
For Seattle, Devon Witherspoon (+12500) could steal a pick-six and turn the tides, or Leonard Williams (+10000), akin to Milton Williams’ case. Even Uchenna Nwosu (+25000) could be enough of a disruptor to qualify. There’s plenty of reasons to back a non-traditional MVP; don’t be afraid to click on a big number.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
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