Super Bowl Odds Update After Week 16: Saints and Chiefs Peaking at the Right Time?

• The Ravens remain +200 Super Bowl favorites after securing home-field advantage in the AFC
  
• San Francisco (+500) can wrap up the NFC’s No. 1 seed with a victory over the Seahawks (+1600) on Sunday Night Football
  
• The Packers (+1000) will earn a first-round bye with a win over the lowly Lions
  

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Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are undoubtedly two of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game, but neither of their offenses have passed the eye test all year.

While both the Patriots and Packers appear locked into round-one playoff byes after big Week 16 wins over their respective divisional rivals, neither are among the teams I would feel comfortable putting money on.

With only one week left in the regular season, let’s examine the latest odds at BetOnline, go over all the postseason scenarios and highlight some best bets.

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Lamar Jackson reminds me of a bullfighter, only instead of waiting back patiently, he runs full steam at his opponents before slipping out of the way at the last second.

After wrapping up home-field advantage in the AFC with a 31-15 win over the Browns, the Ravens quarterback will rest in Week 17, finishing his MVP campaign with 3,127 passing yards, 36 TDs, 6 interceptions and another 1,206 yards and 7 scores on the ground.

List of players to have 3,000 Pass Yards and 1,000 Rush Yards in the same season:
– Lamar Jackson

That’s it pic.twitter.com/fw8ARlz48U

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) December 22, 2019

Baltimore (+200) is the no-brainer Super Bowl favorite, but looking way ahead, the Chiefs could pose an interesting challenge in the AFC championship game.

Via NFL Research, Kansas City (+650) has allowed a league-best 9.6 points per game since Week 11 and their offense is fully healthy after missing Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill for key portions of the season.

Andy Reid’s boys defeated the Ravens 33-28 in Week 3, as well as 27-24 last year, but the road Baltimore won’t be easy. They’ll face a stiff test in the Wild Card Round if Tennessee can beat a Houston team with not much to play for in Week 17, and then have to win on the road in New England (+500).

The Patriots will clinch their 10th consecutive postseason bye with a win over the Dolphins on Sunday. Meanwhile, in all likelihood, the Texans (+3300) will host the Bills (+5000) in the first Wild Card game on Saturday, January 4th.

NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Much like Kansas City, the Saints (+650) appear to be peaking at the right time.

One week after Drew Brees set the record for all-time touchdown passes, Michael Thomas set the new single-season reception record (144) in a hard-fought 38-28 road victory over a hungry Titans team.

✔️ Single Season Reception Record
✔️ 1,600+ Yards
✔️ #99Club

Congrats @Cantguardmike ? pic.twitter.com/0SWWbMkf2P

— Madden NFL 20 (@EAMaddenNFL) December 23, 2019

Also like the Chiefs, there’s a good chance that New Orleans will not earn a first-round bye. If the 49ers win in Seattle next Sunday night, San Francisco (+500) will wrap up a bye along with the Packers (+1000), assuming they handle their business against a terrible Lions team.

That would mean New Orleans would host a Minneapolis Miracle rematch against the Vikings (+3300) before heading to Green Bay in the divisional round.

Given Sean Payton’s club will move to 7-1 on the road this season with a victory against the Panthers in Week 17, a trip to Lambeau might not be the end of the world.

The Saints, however, could still claim the No. 2 seed if the Seahawks (+1600) win a home against the Niners.

While no team had a worse Sunday than Seattle — lost left tackle Duane Brown and running back Chris Carson to injuries in a 27-13 loss to the Cardinals — it did set the stage for a Marshawn Lynch reunion.

Marshawn Lynch’s new contract with the Seahawks is for this season only — Week 17 against the San Francisco 49ers and the postseason, a source told @AdamSchefter. https://t.co/VVcPlb18eg pic.twitter.com/wihY2w8ykp

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 24, 2019

If Beast Mode can turn back the clock a few years and Russell Wilson can rewind to the early-season play that made him a mid-season frontrunner for NFL MVP, a Seattle win on Sunday would drop San Francisco all the way from the first to the fifth seed.

The loser of the Seahawks/Niners game will likely head to Philadelphia (+3300) in the Wild Card Round after the Eagles put the final nail in Jason Garrett’s coffin on Sunday.

While this year’s NFC East champion isn’t exactly scaring anyone, the battle-tested 49ers will sure seem like a better Super Bowl bet if they can secure the NFC’s No. 1 seed.