Updated NFL MVP and OROY Odds at Quarter Mark of Season

  • Russell Wilson (+200) is the early favorite to win NFL MVP after the first month of the season, just ahead of Aaron Rodgers at +300
  • Joe Burrow (+175) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+200) have the shortest odds among Offensive Rookie of the Year contenders
  • Chargers rookie quarterback Justin Herbert is still somehow +1200 to win the OROY after a dazzling three-touchdown performance against the Bucs on Sunday

With a quarter of the football season already in the books, it’s an ideal time to check on the early contenders to win the NFL’s Most Valuable Player of Award, as well as Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Let’s examine the latest odds at BetOnline and place our best bets on what stars will take home the hardware.


Player Odds
Russell Wilson +200
Aaron Rodgers +300
Patrick Mahomes +500
Dak Prescott +1200
Josh Allen +1200
Lamar Jackson +1400
Tom Brady +1400
Kyler Murray +1400
Cam Newton +2500
Alvin Kamara +3300


Tying Peyton Manning’s record with 16 touchdown passes through the season’s first four games, Russell Wilson (+200) has his Seahawks at 4-0 for the first time since his sophomore year in 2013. If Mr. Unlimited can somehow keep up his absurd level of play, the AP sports writers who vote for the award will likely be eager to correct the fact that they haven’t given Wilson a single MVP vote in his eight-year career.

While Seattle is finally letting Russ cook, Green Bay removed every pot and pan from the kitchen of Aaron Rodgers (+300), forcing him to create a tasty dish with a half-empty fridge. This could give the Packers legend the inside track to win his third-career MVP, but he won’t win any points for modesty.

Kept in check on national TV by Bill Belichick on Monday night, Patrick Mahomes (+500) will be a perennial MVP candidate for the length of his career, but like LeBron James, could have trouble winning another one because he’s set the bar so damn high.

Dak Prescott (+1200) is on pace to shatter Manning’s single-season NFL passing yardage record, but the 1-3 Cowboys will have to get a whole lot better in a hurry for Dak to be a serious award contender. In contrast, Josh Allen (+1200) is leading a 4-0 Bills squad, trailing only Wilson and Rodgers with 12 touchdown passes this season. The third-year QB is certainly in the mix, but considering his MVP odds were between 25-1 and 50-1 in the summer, you already missed the boat in terms of value.

Best Bet: Russell Wilson (+200)


Player Odds
Joe Burrow +175
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +200
Tua Tagovailoa +900
Antonio Gibson +1000
Justin Herbert +1200
Jonathan Taylor +1400
Ceedee Lamb +1600
Justin Jefferson +1600
James Robinson +1800
Jerry Jeudy +1800


While recording his first-career win against the Jaguars on Sunday, Joe Burrow (+175) became the first rookie in NFL history with at least 300 pass yards in three consecutive games. But given the state of the Bengals offensive line and, well, the franchise itself, it’s fair to question if the Ohio-native is a lock to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+200) seems similarly overpriced given his lack of usage early in the season, but his touchdown potential remains enormous on the Chiefs. Still, we would prefer betting on Washington’s 3rd-Round RB Antonio Gibson (+1000), who put up 46 rushing yards, 82 receiving yards and a touchdown against Baltimore on Sunday. After opening at 100-1, oddsmakers have already shortened his odds to 10-1, suggesting they know Ron Rivera’s club has a star on their hands.

Our favorite bet on the board, however, is Chargers sixth-overall pick Justin Herbert (+1200), who completed 20 of 25 passes for 290 yards and three touchdowns against a strong Tampa Bay defense in Week 4. Here’s a quote from Bucs coach Bruce Arians:

“I told Anthony [Lynn] after the game, You’ve got a great one. That looked like [Patrick] Mahomes, where we had an all-out blitz, and he just kept retreating. Then he threw a dime down the field. For rookies to make plays like that, you know they’re special.”

Mobile and athletic with the ability to launch downfield strikes from multiple arm angles, the 6-foot-6 Herbert will remain Los Angeles’ starter for the remainder of the season, barring injury, so fade Anthony Lynn’s nonsense and go make yourself some money.

Steve Starr

Steve is one of the many Americans who spends Sunday watching football on the couch and gorging on heart-clogging eats. He describes himself as a good father, great dog owner, and mediocre gambler and husband.

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