Fernando Mendoza Heavy Favorite for Top Pick as NFL Draft Betting Value Emerges Elsewhere

Odds for the 2026 NFL Draft are now available, with Fernando Mendoza installed as the clear frontrunner to be selected first overall. Trailing him in the market are Rueben Bain Jr., David Bailey, and Arvell Reese, each currently priced at +8500 or longer.

While the first pick might be a foregone conclusion, there is value to be found elsewhere in the Draft odds. Below is a closer look at some of the betting markets currently open for the 2026 NFL Draft.

  • What? 2026 NFL Draft
  • Where? Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
  • When? April 23–25, 2026

NFL Draft First Pick Odds

Below are the NFL Draft first pick odds from three of the best NFL betting sites.

NFL Draft First PickBovada Sportsbook Review 2026Lucky Rebel Sportsbook & Casino Review 2026MyBookie Sportsbook Review 2026
Fernando Mendoza-17500-17500-20000
Arvell Reese+8500+8500+8000
Rueben Bain Jr.+8500+8500+10000
Ty Simpson+10000+10000+9000
Caleb Downs+12500+12500+12000
Carnell Tate+12500+12500+20000
Cashius Howell+12500+12500+30000
David Bailey+12500+12500+9000
Francis Mauigoa+12500+12500+24000
Jeremiyah Love+12500+12500+15000
Jermod McCoy+12500+12500+24000
Jordyn Tyson+12500+12500+20000
Kadyn Proctor+12500+12500+40000
Keldric Faulk+12500+12500+30000
LT Overton+12500+12500NA
Makai Lemon+12500+12500NA
Mansoor Delane+12500+12500NA
Peter Woods+12500+12500+50000
Spencer Fano+12500+12500+20000
T.J. Parker+12500+12500NA

Fernando Mendoza

Fernando Mendoza capped a remarkable season by winning the Heisman Trophy and guiding Indiana Hoosiers football to victory in the College Football Playoff National Championship. He is now widely projected to be the first player selected in the 2026 NFL Draft. Including postseason action, Mendoza passed for 3,535 yards and a nation-best 41 touchdowns while throwing only six interceptions. He also topped the Big Ten Conference in yards per attempt at 9.5 and finished the year with the highest passer rating in college football at 182.9. Although mobility is not the centerpiece of his skill set, Mendoza still contributed 276 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on the ground.

The expectation is that Mendoza will land with the Las Vegas Raiders, who secured the first overall pick after enduring a 3–14 campaign. Much of the team’s struggles stemmed from instability under center. Veteran quarterback Geno Smith, acquired by Las Vegas in a trade last offseason, struggled throughout the year. The 35-year-old finished with 3,025 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, with his interception total leading the National Football League.

Given the organization’s long-standing need at quarterback, it is difficult to see the Raiders passing on Mendoza or dealing the top selection for additional draft assets unless something unexpected unfolds before draft day. The franchise has been searching for a long-term answer since Derek Carr departed following the 2022 season, and even during his tenure the position rarely produced elite results. Mendoza now arrives with the potential to become the most impactful quarterback the Raiders have had in years.

NFL Draft Second Overall Pick

NFL Draft Number 2 PickBovada Sportsbook Review 2026Lucky Rebel Sportsbook & Casino Review 2026MyBookie Sportsbook Review 2026
Arvell Reese-170-170-197
David Bailey+200+200+189
Rueben Bain Jr.+1200+1200+1500
Sonny Styles+1600+1600+1300
Caleb Downs+6000+6000+4000

Arvell Reese secured All-American recognition following a standout junior campaign in which he recorded 69 total tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks, and two pass breakups. The New York Jets currently hold the second overall selection in the 2026 NFL Draft and have several roster needs to address. Reese’s versatility—capable of lining up both as an off-ball linebacker and rushing off the edge—would provide valuable flexibility for the defense led by head coach Aaron Glenn.

Just behind Reese in the betting market is David Bailey, a dynamic edge rusher who produced elite numbers this past season. Bailey topped the nation with 14.5 sacks while also compiling 19.5 tackles for loss. His stat line also included three pass breakups, one fumble recovery, and three forced fumbles, the type of disruptive production that would certainly appeal to New York’s defensive plans.

Sonny Styles of the Ohio State Buckeyes football surged up the draft odds following an impressive showing at the NFL Scouting Combine. Styles measured 6-foot-5 and 244 pounds before posting elite testing numbers, including a 4.46-second 40-yard dash, a 7.09-second three-cone drill, and a 4.26-second 20-yard shuttle. His explosiveness also stood out, highlighted by a 43.5-inch vertical leap and an 11-foot-2 broad jump, leading all linebackers in the 40-yard dash, vertical, and broad jump.

Arvell ReeceSecond Draft Pick
★★★★★
-170
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Who will be the first Offensive Lineman picked in the 2026 NFL Draft?

First Offensive Lineman PickBovada Sportsbook Review 2026Lucky Rebel Sportsbook & Casino Review 2026MyBookie Sportsbook Review 2026
Monroe FeelingEvenEven+125
Francis Mauigoa+140+140+150
Spencer Fano+700+700+480
Olaivavega Ioane+1600+1600+1500
Kadyn Proctor+4000+4000+4000
Blake Miller+10000+10000+8000
Caleb Lomu+10000+10000+7000
Max Iheanachor+10000+10000NA

Monroe Freeling (+125) has surged up draft boards following an outstanding performance at the NFL Scouting Combine. His exceptional length, size, and athleticism stood out at right tackle. Although he made just one season of starts for the Georgia Bulldogs football, Freeling has the physical profile and upside to develop into one of the league’s premier tackles.

Francis Mauigoa (+150) sits as the second favorite to be the first offensive lineman taken in the NFL Draft. Possessing physical traits similar to Penei Sewell, Mauigoa is slightly smaller but remains a highly athletic tackle prospect who projects to stay at offensive tackle in the National Football League. His quick lateral movement allows him to neutralize pass rushers effectively in protection. That same mobility should help him operate well in space within the run game.

Spencer Fano (+700) is another highly athletic lineman with impressive footwork, making him effective when pulling, reaching, or climbing to the second level as a run blocker. If he adds more strength and bulk through his chest and torso, Fano could step into a starting tackle role in the NFL from his rookie season.

Beyond those three, the remaining candidates are considered longer shots to be the first lineman selected. Vega Ioane (+1600) is widely viewed as an elite guard prospect out of Penn State Nittany Lions football, but the NFL typically places greater value on tackle prospects. Kadyn Proctor (+4000) was a highly regarded recruit coming out of high school and brings enormous size at 6-foot-7 and 352 pounds, though his foot speed lags behind the top three contenders. Caleb Lomu (+10000), a tackle who played alongside Fano at Utah Utes football, is another name in the mix, while Blake Miller (+1000) from Illinois Fighting Illini football rounds out the leading options in the market.

Francis MauigoaFirst Offensive Lineman Picked
★★★★★
+150
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Who will Draft Ty Simpson?

Ty SimpsonBovada Sportsbook Review 2026Lucky Rebel Sportsbook & Casino Review 2026BetUS Sportsbook Review 2026
Cardinals+150+150+145
Jets+200+200+145
Steelers+325+325+425
Rams+330+330+335
Browns+650+650+625
Dolphins+1500+1500+1400

Ty Simpson of Alabama Crimson Tide football is also drawing attention in the quarterback market after an impressive season in which he threw for 3,567 yards, 28 touchdowns, and only five interceptions. The Arizona Cardinals, who hold the third overall selection in the 2026 NFL Draft, are currently favored to land Simpson as they search for a new long-term option under center.

That need intensified after news emerged that Kyler Murray will be leaving Arizona. He will join the Minnesota Vikings, where he will compete for the starting quarterback role. Murray spent seven seasons with the Cardinals. He earned NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors and making two Pro Bowl appearances during his tenure. In addition to the third overall pick, Arizona also controls the 34th selection.

The New York Jets sit just ahead of them on the board. They are another franchise in need of stability at quarterback. New York has not reached the postseason since 2010. The lack of consistency at QB position has played a major role. Last season alone saw the Jets rotate between Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, and Brady Cook. The year prior, Aaron Rodgers handled all 17 starts in 2024.

The instability goes back even further. During the 2023 campaign, the Jets started Zach Wilson 11 times, Trevor Siemian three times. Tim Boyle started twice, and Rodgers once. The organization has not had a quarterback start for four or more consecutive seasons since Chad Pennington held the role. That was from 2002 through 2007. New York currently owns the second and 16th overall selections in this year’s draft.

Arizona CardinalsTeam To Draft Ty Simpson
★★★★★
+150
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