Patriots upset Vikings on the road: NFL Thanksgiving Day Week 12 Picks

  • The Minnesota Vikings (8-2) are 3-point home favorites over the New England Patriots (6-4) in Week 12
  • Mac Jones has not thrown for more than one touchdown in a game this season 
  • The Thanksgiving Day nightcap on NBC kicks off from U.S. Bank Stadium on November 24 at 8:25pm ET

Coming off a big win over Buffalo, the Vikings were riding high heading into Week 11. However, after suffering a 40-3 beatdown at the hands of the Cowboys, Minnesota has a minus-2 point differential in 2022. That’s the lowest in NFL history by any team to start a season 8-2 or better.

Can Kirk Cousins rebound in a Thanksgiving matchup against a Patriots defense that held the Jets to just three points on Sunday? Before we check the odds on this pivotal primetime game, here’s where you can find the best Super Bowl betting tips and the top betting sites for NFL football in 2022.

Vikings vs Patriots

BetOnline ReviewSpreadMoney LineTotal Points
New England Patriots+3 (-120)+132Ov 42.5 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings-3 (+100)-152Un 42.5 (-110)

Minnesota, mediocre?

How good are the 8-2 Vikings? Kevin O’Connell’s club has impressive victories over the Bills and Dolphins (minus Tua) and stinky losses against both the Eagles and the Cowboys. In Week 11, the Dallas defense held Kirk Cousins to only 105 yards passing while locking up star receiver Justin Jefferson (three receptions for 33 yards).

That does not bode well for Thursday night’s Thanksgiving matchup with New England. Bill Belichick’s defense has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (188.3). The Patriots also rank No. 2 in both points per game allowed (16.9.) and sacks (3.6), trailing only Dallas. The Cowboys sacked Kirk Cousins a career-high seven times on Sunday afternoon.

Belichick’s finest work?

Marcus Jones’ 84-yard punt return touchdown at the buzzer gave New England its 14th-straight win over the Jets. The 10-3 victory was hardly an impressive showing on offense, however. Sophomore QB Mac Jones was held to 246 passing yards and no touchdowns while being sacked six times.

After starting 1-3, the Patriots have won five of their past six games to improve to 6-4 in a crowded AFC East with four teams with six wins or better. To keep pace in the division, Bill Belichick will continue to rely on defense and his running game. Damian Harris returned in Week 11, piling up 93 total yards on just 10 touches. With Rhamondre Stevenson, the two form one of the best backfield duos in the NFL.

Minnesota VikingsTo Cover Spread
★★★★★
-3.0
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New England PatriotsTo Win
★★★★★
+132
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Vikings vs Patriots

Minnesota is favored by a field goal at U.S. Bank Stadium and the over-under is set at just 42.5 points. Given Kirk Cousins’ long, sordid history in primetime and the Patriots’ top-five passing defense, Kevin O’Conner will likely want to keep the ball on the ground with Dalvin Cook. However, New England might come out with a more pass-heavy game plan than expected.

While average against the run, the Vikings defense allows the second-most passing yards per game (267.3). The question is whether Mac Jones can capitalize. The sophomore signal-caller hasn’t thrown for more than one touchdown in a game all season, topping 253 passing yards only once.

Best Bet

Matthew Judon leads the NFL with 13.5 sacks and the Vikings will be missing Christian Darrisaw on Thanksgiving after the star left tackle suffered another concussion in Week 11.

Look for the Patriots to pressure Cousins into mistakes and score just enough points to register a road upset on Thursday night.

Final Score Prediction: New England 20, Vikings 17

Vikings vs Patriots-110
★★★★★
UNDER 42.5
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Steve Starr

Steve is one of the many Americans who spends Sunday watching football on the couch and gorging on delicious eats. He describes himself as a good father, great dog owner, and mediocre gambler and husband.

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