NFL Week 11 Predictions & Best Bets: Chiefs vs Rams Moves to LA; What’s the Play?

  • My Locks of the Week went 2-for-3 again in Week 10 and are now over $500 in the black for 2018. 
  • I really want to bet against the Bengals again in Week 11, but sportsbooks won’t let me.
  • Instead, I’m banking on the Raiders and Cardinals’ offenses staying terrible.

The Week 10 locks went 2/3 for the second straight Sunday. My four-team, ten-point teaser hit (Chargers -0.5, Packers PK, Rams PK, Saints +4), returning $110, while the Saints -6.0 was never in doubt, returning $90.91. The only miss was the UNDER 37.0 in Bills vs Jets, which Buffalo demolished on its own in a head-scratching 41-10 win. Here’s an updated accounting ahead of Week 11:

  • “Locks of the Week” 2018 ROI: +$524.61 (based on $100 wagers)
  • Week 10 ROI: +$100.91

The entire AFC East is on bye in Week 11, and they won’t be missed. The 49ers and Browns also get a rest.

Before we get to the games that are on the slate, remember: you can find predictions for every game below, but I only recommend following my Locks of the Week, which are located at the tail end of the article. Quality trumps quantity. (That marks the first time since 2016 that the words “trump” and “quality” have been used in the same sentence.)

Green Bay Packers vs Seattle Seahawks

Time & Date: 5:25 PM ET, Thursday, Nov. 15th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Packers +3.0 (-120) +115 O 49.5 (-110)
Seahawks -3.0 (EVEN) -135 U 49.5 (-110)

Green Bay is 26th in Defensive DVOA against the run, while Seattle is pounding out an NFL-best 152.2 rushing yards per game. Get ready for another steady dose of Chris Carson and/or Mike Davis and/or Rashad Penny. Penny, a first-round rookie who’s pretty much been stapled to the bench up to this point, broke out in Week 10 with Carson injured.

The Packers have the pieces to give the Seattle defense problems. They are actually second in DVOA running the ball, while the Seahawk defense is 20th against the run. But the Packers only average 115.6 rushing yards per game because Mike McCarthy and the coaching staff don’t know how to properly utilize their personnel. They are 27th in the league in rushing attempts and first in yards per carry.

Score Prediction: 27-21 Seahawks

Best Bet: Seahawks -3.0 (EVEN)

Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 18th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Cowboys +3.0 (+110) +155 O 48.5 (-110)
Falcons -3.0 (-130) -170 U 48.5 (-110)

Both of these teams have been completely two-faced in Weeks 9 and 10. Which versions will show up in Week 11? I’d be more confident in a bounce-back from Atlanta than another road upset from the Cowboys, who were winless outside of Dallas before beating the Eagles last Sunday.

Score Prediction: 28-21 Falcons

Best Bet: Falcons -3.0 (-130)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Giants

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 18th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Buccaneers +1.5 (-110) EVEN O 52.0 (-105)
Giants -1.5 (-110) -120 U 52.0 (-115)

The Buccaneers gained nearly 500 yards of total offense last week yet managed just three points against Washington (16-3) thanks to costly red zone turnovers. The Giants, meanwhile, escaped San Francisco with a 27-23 win despite being outgained by nearly 100 yards. Unlike the Bucs, the G-Men won the turnover battle, 2-0.

It’s scary relying on Tampa’s turnover habit to quiet down, but it is a stat that tends to regress to the mean, and the Bucs’ offense is by far the best unit in this game when it’s clicking.

Score Prediction: 28-23 Buccaneers

Best Bet: Buccaneers’ moneyline (EVEN)

Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 18th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Panthers -4.5 (-105) -200 O 51.0 (-110)
Lions +4.5 (-115) +170 U 51.0 (-110)

The Lions just do not look the same without Golden Tate. The 34-22 final score in last week’s loss to Chicago flattered Detroit. While Carolina was never as good as the 6-2 record they carried into Pittsburgh on Thursday, they are considerably better than the 52-21 beatdown they suffered. Their third-ranked run-game (per DVOA) is going to have its way with Detroit’s 25th-ranked rush defense.

Score Prediction: 30-23 Panthers

Best Bet: Panthers -4.5 (-105)

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 18th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under

The line for this game won’t be posted until the Ravens’ starting QB is announced.

Score Prediction: N/A

Best Bet: N/A

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 18th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Titans +2.0 (-110) +105 O 49.0 (-110)
Colts -2.0 (-110) -125 U 49.0 (-110)

Both of these teams are white-hot after playing a lot of sub-par football earlier in the year. But sportsbooks are making this choice easy: no Titans game has exceeded 49 points all season. They play slow and have a great defense. As good as Andrew Luck and the Colts’ offense looks, they want to run the ball, as well.

Score Prediction: 23-20 Colts

Best Bet: UNDER 49.0 (-110)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 18th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Steelers -6.0 (-115) -250 O 47.0 (-110)
Jaguars +6.0 (-105) +210 U 47.0 (-110)

You won’t find this one in the Locks of the Week, but I’m very tempted to take the Jags’ moneyline here. They absolutely annihilated the Steelers last season (30-9) thanks to their defense, and then beat them again in the playoffs (45-42). They don’t need Blake Bortles to be good to win. They just need the D to play like it did last year. Tall order, yes, but not unfeasible.

Ben Roethlisberger has a track record of playing much worse on the road, even if that hasn’t played out this year. The Steelers are rolling, but aren’t going to win out, and this feels like a prime spot to lay an egg.

Score Prediction: 24-23 Jaguars

Best Bet: Jaguars’ moneyline (+210)

Houston Texans vs Washington

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 18th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Texans -3.0 (-110) -150 O 42.5 (-110)
Washington +3.0 (-110) +130 U 42.5 (-110)

Houston has won six in a row. Only the Saints have a longer win streak right now. They haven’t exactly been dominating, but they have been getting the job done. This Washington team, meanwhile, is 6-2 despite having a point differential of just +1. They are decimated on the O-line and have no passing game to speak of. The defense is salty, but won’t be able to hold the Texans to single digits like they did against Tampa in Week 10.

Score Prediction: 20-17 Texans

Best Bet: Texans’ moneyline (-150)

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 18th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Broncos +7.0 (-110) +270 O 46.5 (-110)
Chargers -7.0 (-110) -340 U 46.5 (-110)

Denver is an ok football team, better than their 3-6 record. But you need to be better than ok to hang with the 2018 Chargers. Five of their seven wins have been by eight points or more and the defense is starting to find its groove. LA has only surrendered 13.2 PPG over its last five. Sure, two of those were against the Raiders, but they also held the Seahawks to 17 points in Seattle. This might be the second-best team in the AFC.

Score Prediction: 28-17 Chargers

Best Bet: Chargers -7.0 (-110)

Oakland Raiders vs Arizona Cardinals

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 18th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Raiders +5.0 (-110) +200 O 41.0 (-105)
Cardinals -5.0 (-110) -240 U 41.0 (-115)

The Cardinals haven’t scored more than 18 points since Week 5. They’ve been held to  and shouldn’t be favored by five points over anybody. But they do have an underrated defense that’s going to keep Oakland out of the end zone. Under all day.

Score Prediction: 17-14 Cardinals

Best Bet: UNDER 41.0 (-110)

Philadelphia Eagles vs New Orleans Saints

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 18th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Eagles +9.0 (-105) +310 O 56.0 (-110)
Saints -9.0 (-115) -420 U 56.0 (-110)

This is too many points to lay, but I’m also not going against the best offense in the league. The Eagles will overcome their red-zone issues and do enough to help this game hit the OVER. But this one won’t be in the Locks either because …

Score Prediction: 33-26 Saints

Best Bet: OVER 56.0 (-110)

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 18th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Vikings +3.0 (-135) +110 O 45.5 (-105)
Bears -3.0 (+115) -130 U 45.5 (-115)

Chicago is just a better football team than Minnesota right now and own the best defense in the league (when healthy, which it is). Minnesota’s one-dimensional offense will be under significant pressure all day. I love the value +115 value on the Bears’ spread.

Score Prediction: 24-20 Bears

Best Bet: Bears -3.0 (+115)

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 18th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Chiefs +3.5 (-120) +150 O 63.5 (-110)
Rams -3.5 (EVEN) -170 U 63.5 (-110)

Originally scheduled for Mexico City, this game was relocated to the Coliseum in LA because the field in Mexico was too beat up. The spread only moved one point after the switch. The Rams are unbeaten at home this year, but they don’t have a great home-field advantage, going 4-4 in LA last year (versus 7-1 on the road). Their defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone lately and now face a KC offense that scores at will. Take the points in a shootout, I think the saying goes.

Score Prediction: 35-33 Chiefs

Best Bet: Chiefs +3.5 (-120)

Locks of the Week

  • Raiders vs Cardinals: UNDER 41.0 (-110)
  • Titans vs Colts: UNDER 49.0 (-110)
  • Chiefs +3.5 (-120)

Alexander is the MTS editor-in-chief. Frank, Alex, and Geoff brought him in when they realized that their betting expertise far surpassed their grammatical abilities. He loves overanalyzing college basketball trends. Talking to him during the first weekend of March Madness is like talking to a wall. A very focused wall, but a wall nonetheless.

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