Steve Starr
- BetOnline has Buffalo as 4-point home favorites over New England
- The game will kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Saturday night in Orchard Park
- The Bills and Patriots have met only once in the postseason — in 1963 in an AFL divisional game
After snapping Bill Belichick’s streak of 11 consecutive AFC East titles last year, Buffalo won back-to-back division championships for the first time since the 1990 and 1991 seasons, finishing with a 11-6 record.
The Bills’ toughness was questioned after suffering a 14-10 defeat to New England in a windy Week 13 contest that saw rookie quarterback Mac Jones throw the ball just three times, but Sean McDermott’s club rebounded in Week 16 with a 33-21 trouncing of the Patriots.
With a third meeting in 41 days, the rubber-match will decide who moves on to the NFL’s Divisional Round. Let’s examine the latest game odds and be sure to check out the top betting sites for NFL football in 2021, as well as tips for how to wager on Super Bowl 56.
Bills vs Patriots
 | Spread | Money Line | Total Points |
| New England Patriots | +4.0 (-110) | +167 | Ov 43.0 (-110) |
| Buffalo Bills | -4.0 (-110) | -192 | Un 43.0 (-110) |
New England enters postseason ice cold
The Patriots seemed Super Bowl bound in early December after seven-straight victories, but their defense has allowed 93 points in three defeats to the Colts, Bills and Dolphins over the past month.
With Saturday night’s forecast calling for relatively benign conditions, Belichick must devise a new plan for stopping Josh Allen after the hulking QB passed for 314 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in their last meeting, adding another 64 yards on the ground.
"He's a big strong QB. He's got some of the Ben Roethlisberger in him in the pocket, but more mobility… He is the perfect QB in Buffalo." – @RichGannon12 on @BuffaloBills QB Josh Allen pic.twitter.com/KHozYDNZah
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) January 10, 2022
New England is 0-5 when their opponent scores 25 or more points so the league’s top scoring defense will need to be at its best. To take the pressure off Mac Jones and slow the game down, it’s also fair to expect a heavy dose of rookie back Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris, who alone amassed 244 rushing yards and four touchdowns in two games versus Buffalo.
Best Bets
Bills to cover 4-point spread. Before wagering against the greatest coach in football history, you should know that Belichick has won at least one playoff game in 14 of 17 postseason appearances with only three one-and-done showings. The Patriots were also 6-2 outside of Foxborough in the regular season, compared to just 4-5 in Gillette Stadium.
However, the last rookie QB to win a playoff game was the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson in 2012. And Jones has struggled recently, tossing two INTs apiece in losses to the Colts and Bills, and another ugly pick-six to Miami on Sunday.
Mac Jones wanted no part of stopping the pick six pic.twitter.com/DDvgRgG3so
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) January 9, 2022
Bet the OVER on 43 points. Buffalo has won four straight and finished with over 100 rushing yards in each of the past five weeks with Devin Singletary coming alive down the stretch. And for all the talk of the Pats defense, it was Buffalo’s that ended the season ranked first in points allowed, yards allowed and passing yards allowed.
While New England might be able to slowdown Allen to an extent, the dual-threat star will find more than enough success in Saturday’s rubber match to outduel Jones and move on to the Divisional Round.
Final Score Prediction: Buffalo 27, Patriots 20.
See below the top sportsbooks where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
