- Bill Belichick and Bruce Arians are co-favorites (+1200) to win Coach of the Year
- Mike McCarthy (+1400) and Kevin Stefanski (+1800) are the best bets among the latest round of coaching hires
- Mike Tomlin (+2800) has never finished a season under .500 in his 13-year coaching career
The 2020 battle for NFL Coach of the Year comes with a juicy pre-baked storyline as Tom Brady’s new boss in Tampa Bay, Bruce Arians (+1200), is co-favored to win the award with Brady’s old partner-in-crime, Bill Belichick.
But while the man in the Kangol hat enters the season with outsized expectations, no one seems to be giving New England’s legendary coach a chance with Jarrett Stidham behind center.
That means Arians will need to win at least 12 games to claim his third-career COY honor while Belichick will almost be a lock for his fourth award (and first in a full decade) if he can coax ten victories out of a Patriots offense that looks downright bereft of skill-position talent.
Let’s take a look at all the contenders on the board and draw up a winning play.
2020 COACH OF THE YEAR ODDS
|Bill Belichick (Patriots)||+1200|
|Bruce Arians (Buccaneers)||+1200|
|Mike McCarthy (Cowboys)||+1400|
|Frank Reich (Colts)||+1600|
|Andy Reid (Chiefs)||+1800|
|Kevin Stefanski (Browns)||+1800|
|Kliff Kingsbury (Cardinals)||+1800|
|Sean McDermott (Bills)||+1800|
|Kyle Shanahan (49ers)||+2000|
|Mike Vrabel (Titans)||+2200|
|Brian Flores (Dolphins)||+2500|
|Doug Pederson (Eagles)||+2500|
|John Harbaugh (Ravens)||+2500|
|Vic Fangio (Broncos)||+2500|
|Mike Tomlin (Steelers)||+2800|
|Mike Zimmer (Vikings)||+2800|
|Pete Carroll (Seahawks)||+2800|
|Anthony Lynn (Chargers)||+3000|
|Dan Quinn (Falcons)||+3000|
|Matt Lafleur (Packers)||+3000|
|Matt Nagy (Bears)||+3000|
|Sean McVay (Rams)||+3000|
|Sean Payton (Saints)||+3000|
|Matt Patricia (Lions)||+3300|
|Matt Rhule (Panthers)||+3300|
|Zak Taylor (Bengals)||+3300|
|Joe Judge (Giants)||+4000|
|Jon Gruden (Raiders)||+4000|
|Ron Rivera (Redskins)||+4000|
|Adam Gase (Jets)||+5000|
|Bill O’Brien (Texans)||+5000|
|Doug Marrone (Jaguars)||+5000|
FIRST-YEAR HEAD COACHES
After leaving Green Bay as a laughing stock just over a year ago, Mike McCarthy (+1400) now has the enviable position of following Jason Garrett, another one of the national media’s favorite punching bags, as Cowboys head coach.
Four of the last ten COY awards have gone to head coaches in their first year with their respective franchises and McCarthy inherits a Dallas team that somehow went 8-8 in 2019 despite having the point differential of a double-digit win club. With a loaded offense and the NFL’s third-easiest schedule, the only thing that could stop the Beav now is his undying love for kicking field goals.
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) March 18, 2020
With disappointment from last year’s disaster 6-10 season still lingering around Lake Erie, Kevin Stefanski (+1800) and his perfectly-manicured salt-and-pepper beard will be hailed as a franchise savior if he can win ten games with Baker Mayfield and a beefed up offensive line.
The only problem is that eight of the past ten COYs have gone to coaches who win their division, and well… the Ravens are in the AFC North. That stat also doesn’t bode well for palatial homeowner Kliff Kingsbury (+1800) given the Cardinals share a division with the 49ers, Rams and Seahawks.
COACHES WHO CAN WIN THEIR DIVISION
That last stat might also explain why Mike Tomlin (+2800) is way down the board following a season where he miraculously coached the Mason Rudolph- and “Duck” Hodges-led Steelers to eight victories. However, if Big Ben comes back strong and Pittsburgh makes the playoffs, there will be a lot of momentum behind Tomlin, who has never finished a season under .500 in his 13-year coaching career.
While everyone expects Andy Reid (+1800) and Kyle Shanahan (+2000) to win their respective divisions, the “rebounding from a Super Bowl loss” narrative gives the 49ers’ offensive mastermind a chance to capture the award if San Francisco can muster a strong follow up to last year’s 13-win season.
Frank Reich: Colts fans should be “really excited” after offseason moves https://t.co/fmeQm9TScq
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) May 26, 2020
A steady drumbeat of offseason buzz is building behind the Bills and the Colts, who are both +125 favorites to win their respective divisions. If you believe Philip Rivers has gas left in the tank, Frank Reich (+1600) is an excellent wager. And if you somehow still have faith in Josh Allen after last year’s epic playoff meltdown, I won’t talk you out of Sean McDermott at +1800.
Bill O’Brien (+5000) has never been named Coach of the Year despite winning the AFC South in four of the the past five seasons, but if Houston claims the division yet again, would coach BOB be worthy of the award after general manager BOB’s series of trade blunders stripped the Texans of all their talent? Was this his master plan all along?!!
Best bet: Kevin Stefanski (+1800)
Value bet: Mike Tomlin (+2800)