NFL Betting – Complete Week 5 Preview (Updated)

Week 5 in the NFL features 14 games highlighted by the Bengals hosting the Seahawks and the Rams traveling to Lambeau in the early window on Sunday. In the afternoon, a nubile Derek Carr squares off with Old Man Peyton, while Tom Brady and the Pats head to Big D.

Before the Sunday slate gets underway, the week kicks off with a big AFC South showdown as Indianapolis visits Houston on Thursday Night Football. The Steelers and Chargers wrap things up in Pittsburgh on Monday night.

Let’s take a look at all the Week 5 action that lies ahead.

Thursday

Indianapolis (2-2) at Houston (2-2) – Spread: No Line (Andrew Luck Questionable)

The Colts play a third straight divisional game and hope to make it 3-0 after they beat the Jaguars 16-13 on Sunday without Andrew Luck. Indianapolis will have back-to-back home dates when this one wraps up. Indy is 1-1 on the road, falling at Buffalo 27-14 in Week 1 and coming from behind to derail the Titans 35-33 in Week 3. Last season the Colts were 5-3 on the road straight up and against the spread. Indy has won five straight in this series by an average margin of just under ten points.

The Texans are 1-1 at home. They lost to Kansas City 27-20 to begin the year and beat Tampa Bay 19-9 in Week 3. Houston went 5-3 at home in 2014 and 4-4 ATS. The Texans got thumped in Atlanta 48-21 on Sunday, but will stick with Ryan Mallett at QB for reasons unknown. 

Sunday

Chicago (1-3) at Kansas City (1-3) – Spread: Chiefs -10.5

This is the first of two straight road games for Chicago after they beat the Raiders at home over the weekend. The Bears lost their only game outside of the Windy City this year, a 26-0 setback at Seattle in Week 3 with backup Jimmy Clausen under center. Last season, Chicago finished 3-5 on the road and 4-4 ATS. This is the first meeting between the Bears and Chiefs in Kansas City since 2003.

The Chiefs have been at home just once in four games this year, falling to Denver 31-24 in a game Jamaal Charles fumbled away in Week 2. Last season, KC was 6-2 at home overall and against the number. KC lost at Green Bay and Cincinnati the past two weeks.

Seattle (2-2) at Cincinnati (4-0) – Spread: Bengals -2

The Seahawks began the year with road losses at St. Louis (34-31) and in Green Bay (27-17). After wins at home against the Bears and Lions, Seattle returns to the road to face another challenging opponent. The Seahawks went 5-3 on the road last season and 4-4 against the spread. In 2013, they were 6-2 outside of Seattle SU and ATS.

The Bengals are playing their third home game in five weeks but have trips to Buffalo and Pittsburgh looming. Cincinnati beat San Diego at home 24-19 in Week 2, and beat Kansas City in the Queen City, 36-21, on Sunday. After going 8-0 SU and ATS at home in 2013, the Bengals were 5-2-1 in front of friendly fans last year and 4-3-1 against the number.

Washington (2-2) at Atlanta (4-0) – Spread: Falcons -8.5

The Redskins played three of their first four games at home this year, and now leave DC for the second time. Washington fell to the Giants in New York 32-21 in Week 3 and are coming off of a 23-20 victory over the Eagles in Week 4.  They don’t play a game outside the Eastern Time Zone until a December match-up in Chicago. Last year, the Skins were 1-7 away from home and 3-5 ATS.

The Falcons have already beat the other three teams in the NFC East. Atlanta began the year with a 26-24 victory over Philadelphia, beat the Giants 24-20, and came from behind to KO the Cowboys 39-28. This is the second straight home game for the Falcons, who went 3-5 at the Georgia Dome last year, and 4-4 against the spread. Atlanta then blew out Houston 48-21 on Sunday.

Jacksonville (1-3) at Tampa Bay (1-3) – Spread: Buccaneers -2.5

After splitting home games against the Panthers and Dolphins to start the year, this is the third consecutive road game for the Jaguars. Jacksonville got run over in New England during Week 3, and couldn’t beat the Colts on Sunday even with Andrew Luck sidelined. They return home to face the Texans and Bills the next two weeks. The Jags went 0-8 away from home in 2014 but covered the spread three times. They’ve also won four of five all-time meetings with Tampa Bay and have not lost to the Bucs since 1995.

The Buccaneers fell to the Titans 42-14 at home in Week 1, and made it 0-2 at EverBank Field by falling to Carolina 37-23 in Week 4. They’ll be in Washington and Atlanta the next two weeks. Last year, Tampa Bay was winless at home and 2-6 ATS.

New Orleans (1-3) at Philadelphia (1-3) – Spread: Eagles -4.5

The Saints’ road schedule is no cakewalk; their third game outside the Bayou takes them to Philadelphia. New Orleans lost at Arizona 31-19 to begin the year and (without quarterback Drew Brees) fell at Carolina 27-22 in Week 3. Brees returned to guide New Orleans to an overtime win over Dallas on Sunday night. Last year, the Saints went 4-4 straight up and against the spread on the road.

The Eagles are playing only their second game in front of home fans this year. Philly lost to Dallas 20-10 in Week 2. They play division rival New York next week in Philadelphia. Last year, the Eagles were 6-2 at Lincoln Financial Field and 5-3 against the number. They are looking to bounce back after a 23-20 loss at Washington.

Cleveland (1-3) at Baltimore (1-3) – Spread: Ravens -7

The Browns and Ravens meet in an AFC North clash. Baltimore is 24-8 all-time against Cleveland (plus they stole their franchise in 1995). The Ravens have won 13 of the last 14 match-ups in this heated rivalry. The Browns are on the road for a second straight week after  Cleveland lost a nail biter against San Diego in Week 4, travels home to Cleveland, and then heads to Baltimore. The Browns lost their road opener against the Jets 31-10. Last year the Browns were 3-5 on the road and 5-2-1 against the spread.

The Ravens played three of their first four games on the road with the only home date a wild 28-24 loss to the Bengals in Week 3. Traditionally, Baltimore is tough at home: last year, they went 6-2 and 4-4 ATS. The Ravens have extra rest coming into this game after beating Pittsburgh on TNF in Week 4.

St. Louis (2-2) at Green Bay (4-0) – Spread: Packers -10.5

The enigmatic Rams face a second straight difficult road test. St. Louis lost their road opener at Washington 24-10 in Week 2, but then beat previously undefeated Arizona 24-22 in Week 4. They’ll get two straight and three of four at home after a Week 6 bye. The Rams went 3-5 on the road in 2014 and 4-4 against the number. The Packers beat the Seahawks and Chiefs by ten points each in their first two home games. Last year, Green Bay was 8-0 at home and 6-1-1 ATS. The Packers have won four straight against St. Louis and are coming off a 17-3 win over the Niners in the Bay Area on Sunday.

Buffalo (2-2) at Tennessee (1-2) – Spread: Bills -1.5

Three of the first four games of the season for the Bills came at home, including last Sunday’s 24-10 loss to the Giants. Incredibly, they have three straight in western New York after this tilt. The Bills lone road game was a 41-14 blowout win over the Dolphins. Last year, Buffalo went 5-3 at home and 4-4 against the number. The Titans have won five straight against Buffalo including three in a row on the road. Their only home game this year was a 35-33 Week 3 loss to Indianapolis. Last season, the Titans were 1-7 at home and 1-6-1 against the spread. They’ll be well rested after their Week 4 bye.

Arizona (3-1) at Detroit (0-4) – Spread: Cardinals -2.5

The first of two straight road games for Arizona comes after playing three home contests over the first four weeks of the year. Arizona drilled Chicago 48-23 in their only road trip thus far. They are coming off of a narrow loss to the Rams on Sunday. Last season, the Cardinals finished 4-4 outside of Arizona with a 5-3 mark for betting purposes.

After three of four on the road to kick off the year, the Lions are starting a three-game home stand. They lost their only contest in front of friendly fans so far, 24-12 against Denver in Week 3. In 2014, Detroit was 7-1 in the Motor City and 5-3 ATS. This is a short week for the Lions after falling in Seattle on Monday.

New England (3-0) at Dallas (2-2) – Spread: Patriots -9.5

The Pats head to Dallas after their Week 4 bye. New England won at Buffalo 40-32 in their only road test so far this year. Tom Brady and co. were 5-3 on the road last season and 4-4 ATS, and have won four straight over Dallas dating back to 1999.

The Cowboys are 1-1 at home on the year, but 0-2 ATS. They beat the Giants 27-26 in Week 1, and fell to Atlanta 39-28 with Tony Romo sidelined in Week 3. They were 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS in Big D in 2014. Last weekend, Dallas lost at New Orleans in OT. 

Denver (4-0) at Oakland (2-2) – Spread: Broncos -5

The Broncos look to go 2-0 in AFC West play, having already won in Kansas City 31-24 in Week 2. They won their only other road game, as well, 24-12 at Detroit in Week 3. Last season, Denver was 4-4 on the road straight up and against the spread. Three of the four Bronco wins on the year have come by one score including Sunday’s 23-20 victory over Minnesota.

Oakland is at home for just the second time this year; they beat Baltimore 37-22 in Week 2. Last season, the Raiders went 3-5 at home and 4-4 ATS. Oakland is coming off of a last second road loss at Chicago, and have lost seven straight to the Broncos (including four in a row in the Bay Area). 

San Francisco (1-3) at New York Giants (2-2) – Spread: Giants -7.5

The Niners have played a very difficult schedule thus far and now are on the road for the third time. The first two road games, losses at Pittsburgh and Arizona, were both lopsided. The defense kept them competitive last Sunday in a 17-3 home setback to the Packers. San Francisco went 4-4 straight up and for betting purposes on the road last year.

The Giants are 1-1 at home this year, beating the Redskins 32-21 in Week 3, and falling to Atlanta 24-20 in Week 2. New York was 3-5 at home in 2014 and 4-4 against the number. The Giants won at Buffalo in Week 4, and have split their 38 all-time meetings with San Fran (19 wins apiece). 

Monday

Pittsburgh (2-2) at San Diego (2-2) – Spread: Chargers -3

After blowing a late lead to the Ravens on TNF in Week 4, the Steelers travel west to face San Diego. Pittsburgh will again be without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger due to a knee injury. The Steelers are 1-1 on the road so far, losing at New England 28-21 in Week 1 and edging St. Louis 12-6 in Week 3. Last season, the Steelers were 5-3 on the road and 4-4 against the spread.

The Chargers are playing at home for a second straight week after beating Cleveland, 30-27. That improved their home record to 2-0 on the year after starting the season with a 33-28 comeback over the Lions. The Chargers were 5-3 at home last year and 3-5 against the number.

 

(Photo credit: Jeffrey Beall (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode]. Photo has been cropped.)

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