NFL Week 13 Predictions & Best Bets: Keep Fading the Bengals

  • My Locks of the Week cashed again in Week 12.
  • The account is now nearly $800 in black. 
  • Week 13 is back to a full 16-game schedule, but quality over quantity is still paramount. 

Don’t look now, but after a hugely profitable Week 12, the Locks of the Week are now . My four-team teaser hit at +200 while the Vikings covered as three-point home favorites over the Packers on Sunday Night Football. It wasn’t a perfect week, however. Washington failed to cover on Thanksgiving as 7.5-point ‘dogs in Dallas.

Factoring in that L, I ended up +$180 for the week, bringing the yearly count to …

  • “Locks of the Week” 2018 ROI: +$778.85 (based on $100 wagers)
  • Week 12 ROI: +$180.00

The schedule is back to a full 16-game slate this week, meaning there’s a ton of NFL meat to choose from. But as always, I stress quality over quantity. My predictions and picks for every game are below, but I’m only taking my three Locks of the Week to the proverbial window. They are located at the tail end of the page.

New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys

Time & Date: 5:20 PM ET, Thursday, Nov. 29th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Saints -7.5 (-105) -360 O 53.0 (-115)
Cowboys +7.5 (-115) +280 U 53.0 (-105)

Dallas’ running game is good enough to move the chains, shorten the game, and keep this within one score. The Saints have covered nine straight games, and this line is a reaction to that.

Score Prediction: 27-24 Saints

Best Bet: Cowboys +7.5 (-115)

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 2nd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Bills +5.0 (-110) +190 O 40.0 (-110)
Dolphins -5.0 (-110) -230 U 40.0 (-110)

Buffalo’s defense is salty and Buffalo’s offense is still deplorable, last week’s win over Jacksonville notwithstanding. Miami won’t kill itself with turnovers now that Ryan Tannehill is back.

Score Prediction: 21-14 Dolphins

Best Bet: UNDER 40.0 (-110)

Arizona Cardinals vs Green Bay Packers

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 2nd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Cardinals +14.5 (-115) +600 O 44.5 (-110)
Packers -14.5 (-105) -1000 U 44.5 (-110)

The Packers just are not the juggernaut offense they used to be and shouldn’t be laying more than two touchdowns to any team in the league. Look for Arizona’s defense to put in a better effort after giving up 45 to the Chargers last week.


Score Prediction: 24-17 Packers 

Best Bet: Cardinals +14.5 (-115)

Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 2nd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Broncos -4.5 (-110) -230 O 43.5 (-110)
Bengals +4.5 (-110) +190 U 43.5 (-110)

Jeff Driskel will be under center for the Bengals. I really liked fading Cincinnati when Dalton was at QB. I love it now.

Also, Denver is 6th overall in DVOA, 9th on offense and 3rd on defense. Sorry, Jeff. At least he’ll have AJ Green to rely on.

Score Prediction: 27-17 Broncos

Best Bet: Broncos -4.5 (-110)

Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 2nd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Ravens +1.0 (-110) EVEN 48.0 (-110)
Falcons -1.0 (-110) -120 48.8 (-110)

This game opened with Baltimore as a three-point road favorite. That was ridiculous because, with rookie Lamar Jackson under center, the Ravens have barely edge out Cincinnati (24-21) and then got two defensive scores in a win over Oakland (34-17). Now Jackson is making his first road start against an Atlanta team that can still score points in bunches.

Score Prediction: 27-23 Falcons

Best Bet: Falcons -1.0 (

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 2nd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Colts -4.5 (-110) -225 O 47.5 (-110)
Jaguars +4.5 (-110) +185 U 47.5 (-110)

The Blake Bortles era is, at least temporarily, over in Jacksonville. Cody Kessler will get the start.


Unfortunately for Cody and his 86.5 career passer rating, Leonard Fournette is suspended. This is not a recipe for stopping the Colts’ five-game winning streak.

Score Prediction: 30-17 Colts

Best Bet: Colts -4.5 (-110)

Los Angeles Rams vs Detroit Lions

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 2nd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Rams -10.0 (-110) -500 O 55.0 (-110)
Lions +10.0 (-110) +350 U 55.0 (-110)

The Rams are winning but not covering at a great rate. Detroit is not a pushover, especially at home, and they have the receiving corps to put up a few scores on a vulnerably LA secondary.

Score Prediction: 31-24 Rams

Best Bet: Lions +10.0 (-110)

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 2nd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Panthers -3.5 (-105) -190 O 56.0 (-115)
Buccaneers +3.5 (-115) +165 U 56.0 (-105)

The Bucs have been moving the ball at will on everyone, whether it’s been Jameis Winston or Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. Last week’s 27-9 win over San Francisco showed what they’re capable of if they don’t turn the ball over. Factor in Carolina’s subpar road play this year (1-4 straight-up) and there’s value on the Bucs moneyline.

Score Prediction: 28-27 Buccaneers

Best Bet: Buccaneers’ moneyline (+165)

Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 2nd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Browns +6.0 (-115) +215 O 48.0 (-110)
Texans -6.0 (-105) -260 U 48.0 (-110)

The Texans have now won eight in a row after an 0-3 start, and their wins are getting more impressive by the week. Baker Mayfield has been exceptional since Hue Jackson was fired, but he’s also had the luxury of playing the Falcons and Bengals, possibly the two worst defenses in the NFL. JJ Watt and company are going to remind him that he’s a rookie.


Score Prediction: 28-17 Texans

Best Bet: Texans -6.0 (-105)

Kansas City Chiefs vs Oakland Raiders

Time & Date: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 2nd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Chiefs -15.0 (-115) OFF O 56.0 (-105)
Raiders +15.0 (-105) OFF U 56.0 (-115)

The Chiefs will cover this with ease … if they feel like it. I’m not sure they’ll feel like it. The playoffs are drawing near and health is of the utmost importance. But I’m sure as heck not betting on the Raiders, so I’d take the UNDER, because the Oakland offense is abysmal and the KC defense isn’t as bad as the traditional stats suggest. Their pass rush, in particular, is elite.

Score Prediction: 30-17 Chiefs

Best Bet: UNDER 56.0 (-105)

New York Jets vs Tennessee Titans

Time & Date: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 2nd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Jets +8.0 (-115) +300 O 40.5 (-110)
Titans -8.0 (-105) -400 U 40.5 (-110)

I like the Titans’ offense to take out a little frustration on a Jets team that is spiraling the drain. But laying eight points in a game with a total of 40.5?! Usually that’s a no-go, so the OVER is my play here.

Score Prediction: 27-17 Titans

Best Bet: OVER 40.0

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

Time & Date: 4:25 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 2nd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
49ers +10.0 (-115) +350 O 46.0 (-110)
Seahawks -10.0 (-105) -500 U 46.0 (-110)

Nick Mullens learned last week that life on the road in the NFL is not nearly so friendly as life in the Bay Area. In his first road start (@ Tampa Bay) he went 18-32 for 221 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. And that was against the Bucs, whose defense is 31st in DVOA.

Now he has to go to one of the toughest environments in the NFL and play a defense that’s 11th in DVOA.

Score Prediction: 30-13 Seahawks

Best Bet: Seahawks -10.0 (-105)

Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots

Time & Date: 1:25 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 2nd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Vikings +6.0 (-120) +200 O 48.5 (-115)
Patriots -6.0 (EVEN) -240 U 48.5 (-105)

I like the Vikings getting six here, in particular because it looks like CB Xavier Rhodes will be healthy enough to play. New England doesn’t have the pass rush or secondary to contain Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, and Stefon Diggs.

Score Prediction: 24-23 Patriots

Best Bet: Vikings +6.0 (-120)

Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Time & Date: 8:20 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 2nd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Chargers +3.5 (-115) +150 O 51.5 (-110)
Steelers -3.5 (-105) -180 U 51.5 (-110)

The loss of RB Melvin Gordon is a huge blow to the Charger offense. But the defense is looking phenomenal with Joey Bosa back, and Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers have been mistake-prone much of the year. I love getting the hook here. The Chargers will probably need it given their ridiculously bad kicking game.

Score Prediction: 27-26 Steelers

Best Bet: Chargers +3.5 (-115)

Washington vs Philadelphia Eagles

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 2nd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Washington +6.5 (-110) +230 O 44.0 (-110)
Eagles -6.5 (-110) -280 U 44.0 (-110)

The Eagles came back from an 18-3 first-half deficit to save their season last week. Now they get to face an extremely limited Washington offense led by Colt McCoy. Their abominable secondary will basically get the week off.

Score Prediction: 27-17 Eagles

Best Bet: Eagles -6.5 (-110)

Locks of the Week

  • 3-team, 6-point teaser at +150: Saints (-1.5), Titans (-2.0), Eagles (-0.5)
  • Broncos -4.5 (-110)
  • Buccaneers’ moneyline (+165)
AlexanderP

Alexander is the MTS editor-in-chief. Frank, Alex, and Geoff brought him in when they realized that their betting expertise far surpassed their grammatical abilities. He loves overanalyzing college basketball trends. Talking to him during the first weekend of March Madness is like talking to a wall. A very focused wall, but a wall nonetheless.