- BetOnline favors Davante Adams (+700) to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns for the second-straight season
- Stefon Diggs (+1600) could be due for some positive regression after leading the league in receptions in 2020
- AJ Brown (+2000) has 19 touchdowns on just 190 targets through his first two years
With the preseason in full swing and fantasy football drafts stealing the last few precious weekends of summer we have left, the NFL is officially back. Before opening kickoff on Thursday, September 9, let’s take a look at the players favored to score the most receiving touchdowns this fall.
Most Receiving Touchdowns
Davante and Tyreek top the board
After leading the league with a career-high 18 TD receptions last season, Davante Adams (+700) could be enjoying his “last dance” with Aaron Rodgers in 2021. The 28-year-old hauled in 12, 10 and 13 TDs from 2016 to 2018, respectively, so don’t expect too much regression this season.
A threat to score from anywhere on the field, Tyreek Hill (+800) hauled in 15 TDs last year, besting his previous career-high of 12 in 2018. The Cheetah accomplished this despite being 11th in targets league-wide, and catching 40 less balls than Stefon Diggs, who led the NFL with 127 receptions.
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) August 20, 2021
Because targets are more predictable than touchdowns, Diggs (+1600) is the smarter bet as he enters year two with Josh Allen in Buffalo’s high-scoring attack. With Julio Jones in Tennessee, Calvin Ridley (+900) could also see an increase in targets from the 143 he received last year (ninth in NFL), but he needs rookie Kyle Pitts to start fast to draw coverage away from his side of the field.
As one of the only two bonafide pass catchers in the Chiefs offense, Travis Kelce (+1000) also figures to have another huge year, but keep in mind that his TD totals have been at five or under in four of his seven full seasons in the league.
Best Longshot Bets
DK Metcalf (+1400) will need his target (106) and reception (69) totals to spike in his third year in Seattle. But if the 23-year-old can replicate his performance in the first half of 2020 (8 TDs in eight games) over the course of a full season, his numbers could be scary.
A.J. Brown (+2000) has also used pure efficiency to overcome a lack of volume, scoring 19 touchdowns on just 190 targets through his first two campaigns. While some are worried that Julio’s arrival in Tennessee will siphon even more targets away from the Ole Miss product, Jones has averaged only 6 TDs per season over his 10-year career and could breakdown at age 32.
— Overtime (@overtime) August 21, 2021
Justin Jefferson (+1600) set an all-time rookie record with 1,400 receiving yards in 2020 and his touchdown-hogging teammate Adam Thielen (+1200) is due for some negative regression after scoring 14 TDs with just 868 receiving yards.
Mark Andrews (+4000) finished tied for second in the NFL with 10 touchdowns in 2019 and after scoring seven in 14 games last year, remains the clear No. 1 target on the Ravens offense. Similarly, Cooper Kupp (+4000) crossed the goal line ten times in 2019 and gets a huge quarterback upgrade with Matthew Stafford under center for the Rams.
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