- After 10 Weeks in the NFL, six teams have separated themselves in the odds.
- The big favorites have gone up in price slightly.
- Value exists in both conferences.
With seven weeks remaining in the regular season, it is tempting to start drawing conclusions. Remember, most teams have played only nine games, and that means they have more than 40-percent of the campaign yet to go. Sure, Monday night’s 49ers vs. Giants matchup pitted two out-of-contention also-rans, but less than 10 teams are finished, and ruling out the Eagles, Vikings, and Falcons, who are perennial playoff teams, should be cautioned against.
At the top of the league, the Rams have looked very good, but not great over the past month or so, and the Chiefs’ pair an elite offense with an inconsistent defense.
The concept behind Super Bowl futures betting is not to recognize what you most recently saw, but to project what will come next. Are teams on the incline or decline? A hiccup might present opportunity to get value or it could be a sign of things to come.
Let’s examine updated prices and look for betting opportunities. The odds below are from BetOnline.
Odds to Win Super Bowl 53
|Team||Odds to Win Super Bowl 53 from BetOnline|
|Los Angeles Rams||+400|
|New Orleans Saints||+450|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+500|
|New England Patriots||+700|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+1200|
|Green Bay Packers||+4000|
|San Francisco 49ers||+50000|
|New York Giants||+50000|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+50000|
|New York Jets||+100000|
Tier One: Rams, Saints, and Chiefs
The Rams odds have gone up a drop, as have Kansas City over the last couple of weeks. The dominant teams early in the season have continued to play well, but were going at an untenable pace to begin the year. Meanwhile, New Orleans has rolled off seven straight wins since starting the year with a loss to Tampa Bay. The Saints beat the Rams two weeks ago, and blasted the Bengals on Sunday.
Of the top trio, the Rams and Saints seem appropriately priced, but there could be some value on the Chiefs. Kansas City has a game edge and a head-to-head win over the Chargers, currently their top rival by record in the AFC West and for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Chiefs also are getting healthy. Linebacker Justin Houston and safety Daniel Sorensen returned from injury last week. Safety Eric Berry, a difference maker particularly defending tight ends like Rob Gronkowski, will be back at some point.
The Rams and Chiefs meet in Mexico City this week. If you strongly prefer one of the two, you better jump on them now. The winners odds will surely get lower after they clash.
Tier Two: Patriots, Steelers, Chargers
Three AFC contenders comprise the second group. Though the 7/1 Pats and 12/1 Chargers are priced significantly differently, nobody else in the league is under 20/1. New England’s price is up following their loss to Tennessee, while the Steelers have won five straight, and Los Angeles has put together six consecutive victories.
If you think the Chiefs are going to win their division, the best playoff seeding the Chargers can get is number four, while New England and Pittsburgh may be fighting for a playoff bye. They meet on December 16 in the Steel City. It would be a mistake to discount the Patriots a great deal after a road loss without Gronkowski. Dating back to 2013 New England has won all five meetings with the Steelers, and the price is right on Brady and Belichick now.
There are several intriguing prices out there. Sure the Eagles have looked lost for much of the year, but the defending champs are only two games behind the division leading Redskins, and get to play Washington twice down the stretch.
Are we really sold on the Bears? Chicago has won three straight games, but beating the Jets, Bills, and Lions isn’t exactly the best of the best. Chicago is 20/1, as are the Vikings. The team’s meet on Sunday. Minnesota lacks quality wins too, but the Vikings were in the NFC Title Game last year while the Bears finished 5-11. Want to throw another wretch into it? The Packers, a game and a half behind Chicago, and one back of the Vikings are 40/1, and we’ve seen Green Bay go from out-of-the-playoffs to Super Bowl winner before.