- Which of the final four teams in the 2019 NFL Playoffs provides betting value?
- New Orleans continues to be the Super Bowl 53 favorite.
- Is there a big price worth considering?
After Wild Card weekend produced some surprising results, the NFL’s Divisional Playoffs went according to plan. That means the top-two seeds in both conferences are set to meet in what should be entertaining and competitive Super Bowl semifinals.
Though just three games remain, the odds to win the Super Bowl have not changed dramatically because the four favorites are the final four teams standing. What that really means is the value from several weeks ago has not shrunk as dramatically as it would have had an upset ensued. The same value that was present a month ago is mostly still intact.
Let’s peak at the updated odds and see if we can find some betting value. The odds below are from BetOnline.
Odds to Win Super Bowl 53
|Team||Odds to Win Super Bowl 53 (Jan. 15)|
|New Orleans Saints||+175|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+250|
|New England Patriots||+340|
|Los Angeles Rams||+360|
NFC Championship Game
The Saints survived Philadelphia to advance to the NFC Championship Game and saw their odds drop from 5/2 to 7/4. Meanwhile, the Rams made relatively easy work of Dallas and, in doing so, saw their number shift from 11/2 to 18/5. This gives New Orleans an implied probability of over 36-percent to win the Super Bowl, and LA a 22-percent shot.
The NFC is the current favorite over the AFC in Super Bowl futures, though not as much as you might expect (only -130). Analytics believe that New Orleans and Los Angeles are the two strongest teams in the NFL.
The Saints are the reasonable favorite because they are at home and won the first matchup between the teams. Does that mean they have a 14-percent greater chance to win the Super Bowl than LA? The -190 moneyline suggests the price is justified. However, there are reasons to think this meeting could be different than the last one.
Whichever NFC team you prefer, it has been the stronger conference. If you have an inclination, the price now will be significantly better than after only two teams are left standing.
AFC Championship Game
On paper and based on the point spread, the Patriots had the most difficult Divisional Round matchup hosting the Chargers. It didn’t work out that way. New England rolled the Bolts, shortening their odds from 6/1 to 17/5. The Chiefs will host New England after easily dispensing of Indianapolis. KC is now 5/2 after starting the weekend at 9/2.
The Pats and Chiefs is pretty easy to handicap. Do you believe in what you have known for over a decade (i.e. Brady and Belichick) or has the more talented and better team throughout the year convinced you?
New England has been good at home and bad on the road most of the season. The Chiefs went 12-4 in a tougher division and are better at most positions. We know Andy Reid’s playoff history, and this is all new for Patrick Mahomes, but you have to start somewhere. A dethroning seems imminent.
This is legitimately a tough call. It is our feeling Kansas City is going to be in the Super Bowl, but the Chiefs will be underdogs against either New Orleans or Los Angeles. While the Saints are favorites this week, and would be again for the title, they are too short a price to bet on winning two tight games. The Rams equation is even more difficult. While they present value, beating the Saints on the road and then Kansas City on a neutral field is difficult.
The Chiefs have the strongest chance of being in the title game, and they won’t be big dogs if they get there. We like a small wager on KC thinking that we’ll have a team in the ultimate game and that the odds on the Chiefs will drop significantly once they get by New England.