Super Bowl Odds Update After Week 14: How Low Can The Patriots Really Go?

• The Ravens (+225) remain Super Bowl favorites, inching closer to securing home-field advantage in the AFC
  
• San Francisco (+500) and Seattle (+1200) will likely battle for the NFC West title in Week 17
  
• The Rams (+5000) Week 14 win puts pressure on the Vikings (+3300) for the NFC’s last playoff spot
  

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The Patriots are the blue-chip stock of the NFL. No matter how bad Bill Belichick and company perform week after week, their odds barely budge.

Despite suffering a second-straight loss in Week 14 — a 23-16 defeat to the Chiefs — New England is still viewed by oddsmakers as having the second-best chance to win Super Bowl 54.

With only three weeks left in the regular season, let’s look at the latest odds at BetOnline and break the title contenders into tiers.

TIER ONE: BALTIMORE RAVENS

You gotta love it when a plan comes together. Finally free of Joe Flacco, the Ravens spent the offseason building their entire offense around the considerable dual-threat talents of quarterback Lamar Jackson.

Having seen the 2016 Heisman Trophy winner carve up the professional ranks en route to what surely will be an MVP season, it’s easy to view Baltimore’s bold organizational gamble as blatantly obvious in retrospect.

THAT JUKE. ?@Lj_Era8 | #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/K01go8m2xD

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 8, 2019

However, don’t forget that John Harbaugh’s squad was listed as a +4000 Lombardi longshot in the preseason. Now at +225 after picking up their ninth-straight victory, a 24-17 road-win over the Bills, the Ravens are close to securing home-field advantage in the AFC.

With games against the Jets, Browns and Steelers remaining, Baltimore (11-2) currently holds a one-game lead over the Patriots (10-3), plus the tiebreaker.

TIER-TWO TITLE CONTENDERS

As covered here last week, the 49ers were a nice value at +900 after losing a tight 20-17 battle to the Ravens in Week 13. Now up to +500 following their 48-46 win over New Orleans, San Francisco still has some work to do in order to win the NFC West and wrap up a first-round bye.

They’ll face the resurgent Rams (+5000) in Week 16 before a must-win road contest in Seattle to close the season. While San Francisco is the better team, it’s the Seahawks who have the better quarterback, making them a superior value at +1200.

“Jimmy G was very very impressive last night. What you’re starting to see is why Coach Belichick 2 years ago wanted to move in the direction of Jimmy Garoppolo… Right now, he’s playing the position better than Tom Brady.” — @ShannonSharpe pic.twitter.com/rZocdWlHe4

— UNDISPUTED (@undisputed) December 9, 2019

Meanwhile, the 10-3 Saints (+750) can fall no lower than the third seed in the NFC and still have a decent shot at a bye if they can squeak out a win against Tennessee in Week 16.

Foreseeing a Week 14 victory over the lifeless Pats, last week we advised betting the Chiefs at +800. Listed at +700, Kansas City still has chance at a round-one bye if Buffalo (+5000) can secure a road win in New England in Week 16.

TIER-THREE TITLE CONTENDERS

After a rather unimpressive 20-15 victory over the Redskins, Green Bay (+1200) also kept their hopes for a first-round bye alive. The Packers only need to win two of their remaining three games (Bears, @ Vikings, @ Lions) to claim the NFC North.

Minnesota‘s odds dropped to +3300 despite a convincing 20-7 win over the Lions. This was the result of Los Angeles’ surprising 28-12 stomping of the Seahawks on Sunday Night Football.

Todd Gurley adds to the vicious stiff arms we’ve been seeing pic.twitter.com/MLRcXZnEtK

— CJ Fogler (@cjzero) December 9, 2019

Mike Zimmer’s club suddenly faces competition for the last NFC playoff spot with the Rams just a game behind them and holding the tiebreaker over the Vikings.

Finally, the 8-5 Texans and 8-5 Titans will face off twice in the season’s final two weeks with the AFC South title up for grabs.

Given that we touted Tennessee (+4000) when they were available at +10000 just a few weeks back, we’re going to keep riding with Ryan Tannehill and the unstoppable Derrick Henry down the stretch.