- The Ravens (+275) are the outright Super Bowl favorites after beating the 49ers for their eighth straight win
- San Francisco (+900) is still a strong bet despite falling behind the Seahawks (+800) in the NFC West
- Expect the Patriots’ title odds (+400) to fall even further with a loss to the Chiefs (+800) this Sunday
The New England Patriots were embarrassed in primetime for the second occasion in the past month, losing 28-22 to the Texans in a contest that was nowhere near as close as the score indicated.
Meanwhile, Baltimore squeaked out a 20-17 win against the 49ers in a game that was strangely not on network television in New York, Los Angeles and other big U.S. markets.
As predicted would happen in last week’s column, the Ravens (+275) have jumped New England (+400) as the new Super Bowl favorite. Let’s review the updated board at BetOnline and look at the Week 14 games that will impact next week’s Lombardi odds.
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL 54
|Team||Current Odds||Trending||Last Week|
|New England Patriots||+400||↓||+300|
|New Orleans Saints||+500||↑||+600|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+800||↑||+1200|
|San Francisco 49ers||+900||↓||+500|
|Green Bay Packers||+1600||↑||+2000|
|Los Angeles Rams||+8000||↓||+10000|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+25000||↑||+50000|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+50000||↓||+15000|
|New York Jets||+50000||↔||+50000|
SAINTS VS. 49ERS
San Francisco’s hard-fought loss to the red-hot Ravens dropped them from +500 last week to +900, which seems like an overreaction by oddsmakers considering the 49ers’ top-ranked defense held MVP frontrunner Lamar Jackson to a season-low 105 passing yards.
Outscoring opponents by an average of four touchdowns per game over their past five contests, Baltimore’s No. 1 scoring offense managed to put up only 20 points at home, albeit in cold, rainy conditions.
George Kittle was a monster in the run game against the Ravens.
Shanahan postgame: “That was probably as good as of a run-blocking game in terms of how much a tight end in outside zone can move the edge setters. He dominated in that game.”
— Brandon Thorn (@BrandonThornNFL) December 3, 2019
While the window to bet on John Harbaugh’s club has officially closed, the 10-2 Niners offer a lot of value at +900. The problem, of course, is that the 10-2 Seahawks own the tiebreaker in the NFC West and have the easier schedule leading up their Week 17 rematch in Seattle.
That means Kyle Shanahan’s crew will likely have to win out to claim a first-round bye, starting with a victory in the Big Easy against the 10-2 Saints (+500). The result of Sunday’s game will either lift the Niners back around +600 or drop them to +1200, where they would be a screaming value.
PATRIOTS VS. CHIEFS
Given they have six Lombardi trophies, you can’t blame oddsmakers for making people pay up for the Patriots (+400), but this year’s team has done nothing to deserve their lofty standing atop the board.
Sure, New England is 10-2, but they lost decisively to both Baltimore and Houston (who were just blown out by the Ravens 41-7 in Week 11) and their only wins against current playoff teams were 16-10 and 13-9 stinkers against the Bills and Cowboys, respectively.
Top 4 teams in the AFC, according to @getnickwright:
“The Patriots are a week away from being 0-3 against the 3 other teams in the conference that matter. The Ravens have speed … Texans have a ton of speed & no one has more speed than the Chiefs.” pic.twitter.com/Aw5PvGkHF0
— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) December 2, 2019
Through 12 games, Bill Belichick and his mulleted son Steve’s defense has the sixth-best DVOA since 1985, but it’s still hard to believe that Josh McDaniels and Tom Brady will be able to suddenly breathe life into a Gronk-less offense with one decent receiver (Julian Edelman).
While Kansas City (+800) isn’t firing on all cylinders either, expect Patrick Mahomes to score enough to avenge his team’s 37-31 overtime loss in last year’s AFC Conference Championship. Wagering on the Chiefs before Week 14 would be wise.
WHAT ELSE TO WATCH OUT FOR IN WEEK 14
See, even scuzzy, old billionaires cry sometimes. Jerry Jones was left in tears after the Cowboys’ Thanksgiving Day loss to the Bills, but betting Dallas at +2500 isn’t the worst idea considering their weak division and soft remaining schedule (at Bears, Rams, at Eagles, Redskins).
The 9-3 Buffalo Bills are finally starting to get some respect. In addition to their title odds halving from +6600 to +3300 in the past week, NBC flexed their Week 15 game against the 7-5 Steelers (+6600) into Sunday Night Football. However, with the Ravens heading to Orchard Park this weekend, you may want to hold off on any Bills-related bets until next week.
For Buffalo, beating the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day was the cumulation of years of work for Sean McDermott’s team.
— The MMQB (@theMMQB) December 3, 2019
Finally, the 7-5 Rams (+8000) host the Seahawks (+800) on Sunday night, where we’ll find out whether Sean McVay’s club is closer to the team that got their doors blown off by Baltimore in Week 12 or the team that destroyed the Cardinals 34-7 in Week 13.
While their postseason hopes aren’t officially dead, don’t bet on Los Angeles catching the 8-4 Vikings (+2500) for the final NFC playoff spot.