2022 Colombian Presidential Election Picks

  • Former guerilla Gustavo Petro (-180) is the heavy favorite to become Columbia’s next leader
  • Federico Gutierrez (+140) won the country’s conservative coalition primary in early March
  • The 2022 Colombian presidential election will be held on May 29 with a potential runoff in June

The latest polls indicate that Columbia’s presidential election is turning into a two-horse race between Gustavo Petro, a former guerrilla in the M-19 rebel group, and Federico Gutierrez, a former mayor of Medellin.

Who will soon lead the second-most populous country in South America? Before we check each candidate’s odds, here’s where you can find the top betting sites for Politics in 2022.

Colombian Presidential Election

Gustavo Petro-180
Federico Gutierrez+140
Rodolfo Hernandez+2000
Sergio Fajardo+2000
Alejandro Char+10000
Humberto de la Calle+10000
Juan Manuel Galan+10000
Marta Lucia Ramirez+10000
Tomas Uribe+10000

Petro poised to lead?

Currently leading in all major opinion polls, Gustavo Petro (-180) is poised to become the first leftist president in Colombia’s history. Running a campaign focused on wealth redistribution, the 61-year-old senator is extremely popular with the nation’s young and poor after about 1.6 million Colombians fell out of the middle class during the pandemic.

Latin American governments in Chile, Bolivia, Peru, and Honduras have all shifted to the left recently, while Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the heavy betting favorite to win the 2022 Brazilian Presidential Election in October.

Boost from his running mate?

Instead of trying to pull in centrist voters with his choice of vice president, Petro named Afro-Colombian Francia Marquez as his running mate earlier this month. The 39-year-old environmental crusader will resonate with Afro-Colombians, who make up nearly 10% of the country’s population of 50 million, as well as progressives and civil rights activists.

However, there’s always a chance Petro’s strategy backfires and he loses in a runoff if the large number of undecided voters are scared off by his leftist agenda. The former mayor of Bogotá and third-time presidential candidate has an anti-fossil fuels stance – which is tricky when Colombia’s two biggest exports are oil and coal.

Gustavo PetroColombia's Next President
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Federico GutierrezColombia's Next President
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Fico gaining steam?

Federico ‘Fico’ Gutierrez (+140), the leader of the right-wing coalition, had less than half as many votes as Petro in March’s primary elections. However, Medellin’s former mayor obtained 23% of voter intentions in a recent poll, up from 4% in February. The huge jump in support could suggest that some voters are worried Petro will turn Colombia into Venezuela, and galvanize behind his opponent.

The 47-year-old Gutierrez advocates tough security policies against Marxist guerrillas and drug traffickers. While he likely won’t pick up as many votes as his rival on election day, he could win a June runoff if the 2.3 million voters that took part in the centrist coalition primary swing their support to him. Sergio Fajardo (+2000), the winner of the center-left coalition primary, is not expected to be a factor.

And the winner is…

According to the Washington Post, “an anti-Petro resistance is once again gaining force” with the traditional establishment rallying behind Gutiérrez.  Colombians are understandably fearful of a communist, authoritarian regime taking their country backward, but they’re also hungry for change.

Gustavo Petro (-180) should win the election- however, he’s hardly a lock and it may be a closer vote than many expect.

Sergio FajardoColombia's Next President
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Steve Starr

Steve is one of the many Americans who spends Sunday watching football on the couch and gorging on heart-clogging eats. He describes himself as a good father, great dog owner, and mediocre gambler and husband.

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