Embattled Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Favored to be Re-Elected

A tight race is expected when America’s neighbors to the north head to the polls on September 20. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called a snap election in mid-August with the objective of solidify his control on the levers of power in Canada’s Parliament. Forced to settle for forming a minority government in the wake of a general election just two years ago, Trudeau’s bid for a third term in power is fraught with risk. Despite a shaky start on the campaign trail, where he has been hounded by protesters furious with his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as a multitude of scandals since he was first elected in 2015, Trudeau’s Liberal Party remains the favorite to win the most seats in the House of Commons on Election Day.

MyTopSportsbooks takes a look at how all the candidates for the job of leading America’s northern neighbor and closest ally are faring through the first two weeks of the campaign, and what to expect as Election Day draws near. Sports bettors getting in on politics betting action for the first time should refer to our betting guide for tips on how to hone their betting strategies.

Canadian General Election Odds - Party to Win Most SeatsBetOnline
Liberal Party-160
Conservative Party+120
New Democratic Party+1600
Bloc Quebecois+10000
Green Party+50000

Trudeau Rose to Power with Promise of “Sunny Ways”

Justin Trudeau enjoyed a lengthy honeymoon following his 2015 election victory over Conservative incumbent Stephen Harper. Trudeau rose to power on a wave of popularity and adulation that was reminiscent of the “Trudeaumania” that swept to country during the early years of his father Pierre’s time in the Prime Minister’s Office in the late 1960s and early 1970s.

Sporting youthful good looks and invoking the words of early 20th century Canadian Prime Minister Wilfrid Laurier with a promise of a return to “sunny ways”, Trudeau’s popularity endured throughout much of his first term. However, a steady string of scandals and accusations eventually took its toll. Trudeau still managed to win a second term in 2019, but saw the Liberals reduced to a minority in the House of Commons.

Scandals Yet to Sink Liberals

Things have gotten no easier for Trudeau since the 2019 vote. Under Trudeau, the Canadian government, struggled to acquire doses of COVID-19 vaccine from the new US administration led by President Joe Biden, who currently faces no shortage of troubles of his own. In addition to doing little to improve damaged relations with Canada’s Indigenous peoples, and alienating provinces in Western Canada with his opposition to fossil fuels, Trudeau’s pandemic spending has plunged the country into unprecedented levels of debt. Issues of mandatory vaccinations and vaccine passports have also divided Canadians from coast to coast.

Despite all those struggles, Trudeau maintained a consistent edge in the polls over his Conservative Party rival Erin O’Toole when he dissolved Parliament and called next month’s election, and the Liberals remain the favorites to win the most parliamentary seats, sporting short -160 odds at BetOnline.

Erin O’TooleCanadian Prime Minister on 12/31/21
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Is the Honeymoon Over?

Things have gone nowhere but downhill for Trudeau and his party since the writ was dropped. The opening days of the campaign were spent on damage control after Liberal operatives released and promoted a doctored video that appeared to show O’Toole claiming he supported privatizing Canada’s universal healthcare system. Trudeau has also been dogged by his questionable handling of the crisis in Afghanistan, and angry protesters who have forced him to cancel campaign events by outnumbering supporters, while adding value to an already strong bet that he would be the next world leader to be slapped.

The Liberals’ lead in the polls has also quickly vanished, leaving Trudeau and his party trailing the Conservatives by as much as 8% in the polls. In addition to adding massive value to the +120 odds of the Conservatives winning the most seats on Election Day, it also makes O’Toole a solid +200 wager to become Canada’s next prime minister. Of course, Trudeau has proven time and again that he learned the political lessons of his famous father very well, and counting him out is risky. However, unlike during the past two election campaigns, when Trudeau seemingly gained momentum as Election Day approached, this time around is shaping up different.

YesWill any party win a majority of seats in the Canadian Federal Election?
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Conservatives Poised for Comeback

With Trudeau on the ropes, the Conservatives have emerged as an attractive -120 bet at BetOnline to win OVER 128.5 seats in the 338-seat House of Commons, and their skyrocketing numbers at the polls have made the +425 odds of any party claiming a majority of seats a value bet worth considering. Indeed, O’Toole’s attempts at looking and sounding prime ministerial look to be paying dividends.

While Trudeau and O’Toole remain the clear frontrunners in the race to be Canada’s next prime minister, it remains wise not to overlook the smaller political parties, who could come out of Election Day holding the balance of power.

Bernier, Bloc Best Bets

The People’s Party of Canada (PPC) represents a potential obstacle for the Conservatives in their bid to return to power. Formed by former Conservative cabinet minister Max Bernier, the PPC has gained traction with a growing number of disillusioned conservatives and populists, and is pegged as a solid -150 wager to garner at least 4% of the vote.

The Bloc Quebecois, which focuses solely on issues that concern Quebec, has long been a thorn in the sides of both major parties. Under leader Yves-Francois Blanchet, the BQ enjoyed a renaissance in the 2019 election, winning 32 seats. Given Trudeau’s fading popularity, and Blanchet’s ability to avoid scandal, the BQ should be considered a slam dunk as a _120 wager to win OVER 23.5 seats on September 20.

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Sean Maloney

Sean Maloney is an experienced writer, first starting out in the tech industry then pursuing his passion as a sports writer. He has a great interest in North American sports and strangely is also a keen darts fan. He spends his time focused on his work and family, with much of his free time spent with his twin daughters.

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