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The Texas Democratic Senate primary on March 3, 2026, features U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett and State Representative James Talarico as the leading contenders, alongside three lesser-known candidates.
The race gained significant attention when former Representative Colin Allred withdrew on December 8, 2025, clearing the path for Crockett’s late entry.
Crockett, elected to Congress in 2022, brings a national profile built through her combative, progressive style and viral moments in congressional hearings. The Dallas attorney and civil rights advocate is betting that her approach can energize Democratic turnout in Texas’s urban centers.
Talarico, 36, has served in the Texas House since 2018 and built a massive social media following. The former middle school teacher and theological seminary graduate openly discusses how his faith shapes his progressive politics. He’s seeking to energize Democrats while courting disaffected Trump voters, testing whether a red-state candidate can succeed by running against the national party brand.
The winner will face the Republican primary victor in November 2026 for the seat currently held by Senator John Cornyn. Democrats see an opportunity amid the divisive Republican primary battle among Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Representative Wesley Hunt.
However, analysts rate the general election as “Likely Republican,” and Texas Democrats haven’t won a statewide race since 1994. If no candidate receives a majority on March 3, a runoff will be held on May 26.
Before we take an early look at the contenders, here’s where to find the best 2025 Political Betting Sites and view all our latest free Politics betting picks.
Texas Democratic Senate Primary Odds
| Candidates |  |  |  |
| James Talarico | -160 | -160 | -160 |
| Jasmine Crockett | +120 | +120 | +120 |
| Beto O'Rourke | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Emily Mogul | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 |
James Talarico
Despite entering the race as a rising star, Talarico now faces significant headwinds. Recent polling from Texas Southern University shows Crockett leading 51% to 43% in the first head-to-head survey since she joined the race. Talarico began his campaign with only modest name recognition among voters outside Central Texas, a challenge magnified by Crockett’s national media presence.
.@JamesTalarico: There are 2 billionaires in Texas, Tim Dunn and Farris Wilks, who basically run our state government.
Most Texans don't even know their names, but every GOP member of the state Senate has taken their money.
They use that influence to shift our state into a… pic.twitter.com/2nfRoIPkB2
— Team Talarico (@TeamTalaricoHQ) December 16, 2025
The polling reveals troubling demographic splits for Talarico. While he leads among male voters 52% to 42%, Crockett dominates among women, drawing 57% support compared to his 36%. However, among respondents familiar with the candidates, Talarico holds the widest favorability advantage, suggesting room for growth if he can raise his profile.
Some Democratic strategists believe Talarico could deliver voters and close the gap if he maintains energy and gets in front of voters, similar to Beto O’Rourke’s strong 2018 performance.
I would have to side with oddsmakers here and bet on Talarico to win this primary, as he is favored at -160.
Jasmine Crockett
Crockett enters the primary as the clear favorite despite joining the race on filing deadline day. Her overwhelming support from Black voters — 89% according to the Texas Southern poll — provides the foundation of her lead, a crucial advantage in a Democratic primary where African Americans comprise a significant portion of the electorate. She also leads among women voters by 57% to 36% and among voters over 55 by 59% to 34%.
The Dallas firebrand is one of the most outspoken Democrats in Congress.
Can she parlay her media fame into a winning political campaign? https://t.co/I4BfKZ9rf9
— Texas Monthly (@TexasMonthly) December 17, 2025
With 94% name recognition among likely primary voters compared to Talarico’s 79%, Crockett’s national media presence gives her an immediate edge. Democratic operatives agree that she will be a strong fundraiser and a formidable primary candidate, with her campaign already holding $4.6 million in cash on hand.
Primary voters believe Crockett can better mobilize Democratic-leaning, low-propensity voters for the general election by a 53% to 34% margin, aligning with her strategy of expanding the electorate rather than courting swing voters.
Crockett at +120 odds is enticing, but I would have to hold off until we get some more information about her campaign.
Beto O’Rourke
The most significant non-candidate in this primary may be Beto O’Rourke. Early polling showed O’Rourke leading the Democratic field with 25% support in hypothetical four-way matchups at the University of Houston, and he maintained 73% favorability among Democratic voters as of August 2025. However, in November, O’Rourke told The Dallas Morning News that it was “unlikely” he would run.
He ultimately declined to file before the December deadline. His decision not to run—despite his proven fundraising prowess and name recognition—cleared space for both Crockett and Talarico.
Had O’Rourke entered, his statewide network and ability to mobilize voters could have fundamentally altered the primary dynamics, potentially forcing a runoff or even claiming the nomination outright, given his early polling advantages.
Despite stating he is not running, you can still wager on him to win at outrageous +8000 odds.
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