2022 Brazilian General Election Odds: Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva in Dead Heat

  • BetOnline and Bovada have odds on the 2022 Brazilian General Election
  • Oddsmakers believe former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (-115) will challenge incumbent Jair Bolsonaro (-115)
  • General elections are scheduled to be held on October 2, 2022

In March, a Supreme Court justice annulled the 2017 corruption convictions against former left-wing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, paving the way for “Lula” to run against Jair Bolsonaro in 2022.

With Brazil’s right-wing president under fire for his disastrous response to the coronavirus pandemic, oddsmakers view the race to lead South America’s largest country as a toss-up.

Before looking at the latest odds for the candidates, be sure to check out our Politics betting page to familiarize yourself with election betting markets around the globe.

2022 Brazilian General Election Odds

Jai Messias Bolsonaro-115
Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva-115
Sergio Fernando Moro+1200
Ciro Ferreira Gomes+1800
Luciano Grostein Huck+2200
João Agripino da Costa Doria Júnior+3000
João Dionisio Filgueira Barreto Amoêdo+3000

Bolsonaro’s disastrous virus response

While Jair Bolsonaro (-115) is already on to his fourth health minister, a March poll showed that almost half of Brazilians blame their president for the current state of the pandemic. An uncontrollable second wave of the virus recently pushed Brazil over the 300,000 death mark and swamped hospitals across the country.

“Trumpian” in his response, the far-right leader continues to ignore calls from health officials for a national lockdown, attacks the use of masks, and ignores science. Worse yet – experts believe Brazil’s lack of social distancing measures has created the ideal environment for variants to mutate.

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Will Lula run again?

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (-115) said “he would not decline an invitation to run in the country’s presidential election next year.” Rio de Janeiro-based political observer Thomas Traumann also believes “it’s virtually impossible Lula won’t be a candidate.”

The 75-year-old Workers’ party (PT) politician was president of Latin America’s largest economy for two terms, between 2003 and 2011, overseeing a historic period of commodity-fuelled growth and poverty reduction before being jailed on disputed corruption charges in 2017.

Brazilian president tightens grip on power

One could argue Lula would now be a heavy favorite if it wasn’t for Bolsonaro’s strong man tendencies. The 66-year-old retired military official recently fired the defense minister before replacing him with his former chief of staff.

He also named a police officer close to his family as the new justice minister, prompting six likely presidential candidates to issue a joint statement warning that “Brazil’s democracy is threatened.”

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While Brazil’s democratic institutions are relatively strong, Bolsonaro has openly expressed his admiration for the military dictatorship that ruled the country in the 1960s and ’70s.

With the threat of a dictatorship in play, it’s hard to feel confident on betting on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, but let’s hope the will of the people prevails.

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Steve Starr

Steve is one of the many Americans who spends Sunday watching football on the couch and gorging on heart-clogging eats. He describes himself as a good father, great dog owner, and mediocre gambler and husband.

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