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Can Trump afford to lose five cabinet members before the midterms?
Multiple top officials are favored to be on their way out before 2027. This could be a major shakeup to the executive branch.
Tulsi Gabbard is first on the list. The Director of National Intelligence has been accused of suppressing a report about intercepted communications involving Jared Kushner and Iran. The controversy has badly damaged her standing in the intelligence community.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is next. His name surfaced in the Epstein Files, adding to existing criticism over his management of Cantor Fitzgerald. He and his sons now face fraud lawsuits tied to the fallout from the Trump tariffs.
Attorney General Pam Bondi is struggling to project independence from political influence. Her fiery testimony has done little to quiet critics. Many insiders believe her inability to handle sensitive prosecutions will ultimately end her tenure.
FBI Director Kash Patel has been divisive since day one. His handling of the Charlie Kirk investigation and refusal to release the Epstein Files raised serious concerns. His lack of experience and independence has been on full display.
Finally, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has watched her political star rise just as fast as it’s fallen. Her mishandling of the deaths of Alex Pretti and Renee Good shocked many observers. Insiders are suggesting her relationship with the White House is now badly strained.
Together, these five stories paint a troubling picture. The second Trump term may ultimately be defined not by policy wins, but by the people who couldn’t survive it.
Before we take an early look at the contenders, here’s where to find the best 2026 Political Betting Sites and view all our latest free Politics betting picks.
Tulsi Gabbard Out as NI Director Before 2027
| Tulsi Gabbard Out as NI Director Before 2027 |  |  |  |
| Yes | -120 | -120 | -120 |
| No | -120 | -120 | -120 |
Tulsi Gabbard’s grip on the Director of National Intelligence role is slipping. To be fair, her troubles began long before the Kushner-Iran intercept scandal broke. Critics inside the intelligence community never fully accepted her appointment to begin with.
SCOOP: The NSA detected a phone call between foreign intelligence and a person close to Trump last spring.
Whistleblower says that @DNIGabbard blocked agency from sharing report and delivered it to White House chief of staff. https://t.co/BxXkQJoNqL
— Cate Brown (@catebrown12) February 7, 2026
The reason for this is that Gabbard has also faced accusations of leaking sensitive information to foreign adversaries. While those charges were unproven, the allegations further eroded trust within the agency.
This role demands absolute credibility. The implications of the allegation linking Jared Kushner to Iranian officials through intercepted communications are serious and far-reaching. Congressional pressure is mounting against her. Several lawmakers have called for a formal investigation into her conduct.
Her departure before 2027 seems like an inevitability; I’d wager on her being out at -120.
Howard Lutnick Out as Commerce Secretary Before 2027
| Howard Lutnick Out as Commerce Secretary Before 2027 | | | |
| Yes | -165 | -165 | -165 |
| No | +125 | +125 | +125 |
Howard Lutnick arrived at the Commerce Department carrying significant baggage. His ties to the Epstein network put him under immediate public scrutiny. The scrutiny has only intensified since his name surfaced in the released files.
Lutnick’s conflicts of interest have proven difficult to dismiss. Critics argued he never adequately separated himself from his financial empire. He continued to manage Cantor Fitzgerald, raising ethical red flags from the start. Now, the Trump tariff saga has made things worse.
Howard Lutnick's family is set to make BILLIONS when the Supreme Court strikes down Trump's tariffs.
Cantor Fitzgerald, a "financial services" firm run by his two sons has been quietly buying up the rights to tariff refunds for 20-30¢ on the dollar since 1H 2025
HT @Bratt_world https://t.co/eH1utN5B43 pic.twitter.com/1Ydclw3D8c
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) January 22, 2026
Lutnick was a vocal cheerleader for the tariff strategy as markets stumbled. He and his sons are facing fraud lawsuits directly tied to that debacle. An indicted or actively sued cabinet member becomes a liability no administration wants. His path forward is narrowing; his departure may be a matter of when, not if.
I would bet on Lutnick leaving the cabinet before the end of the year.
Pam Bondi Out as US Attorney General Before 2027
| Pam Bondi Out as U.S. Attorney General Before 2027 | | | |
| Yes | -120 | -120 | -120 |
| No | -120 | -120 | -120 |
Pam Bondi’s tenure has been defined more by political theater than legal credibility. Her congressional testimony has repeatedly backfired. She’s come across as combative and evasive. Lawmakers on both sides have taken notice.
Her handling of sensitive prosecutions has drawn particular criticism. Cases that demanded careful, independent judgment instead raised questions about interference. Those questions have never been satisfactorily answered.
🚨 PAM BONDI TESTIMONY RECAP 🚨
– Dodged questions
– “Ignorance” of worst-of-Trump episodes
– Refusals to denounce Trump’s Big Lie
– Doesn’t “believe” Kash Patel has an enemies list
– Extreme MAGA stump speeches
– No expectation she’ll say “NO” to Donald Trump pic.twitter.com/ifkbm8t9dg— Senate Judiciary Democrats 🇺🇸 (@JudiciaryDems) January 15, 2025
Bondi hasn’t been able to shake the perception that she’s politically compromised due to her perceived closeness to the White House. The Justice Department requires a steady, credible hand at the top. Bondi has struggled to consistently project either quality.
While it’s difficult to predict the order in which these cabinet members will depart, I’m confident Bondi will be out before the year’s end as well.
Kash Patel Out as FBI Director Before 2027
| Kash Patel Out as FBI Director Before 2027 | | | |
| Yes | -150 | -150 | -150 |
| No | +110 | +110 | +110 |
Patel’s appointment as the FBI Director was controversial before he ever took the oath. The FBI demands a director who commands institutional respect. Patel has struggled to earn the bureau’s respect.
He was accused of political interference during the Charlie Kirk investigation. He then refused to release the Epstein Files. His stonewalling of the public damaged his credibility. There is also the strange “honeypot allegations” behind how Patel met his girlfriend, Alexis Wilkins.
Kash Patel got yelled at for taking the FBI's private jet to visit his girlfriend sing at a low-rent wrestling match, so he fired a career agent who oversees the response to child abductions and hostage taking. pic.twitter.com/8huRcbyODS
— Tommy Vietor (@TVietor08) November 12, 2025
His inexperience in managing a complex federal agency has been painfully evident. The walls around Patel are closing in fast. This is another one, where I would be completely shocked if Patel is still FBI director by year’s end.
Kristi Noem Out as Homeland Sec Secretary Before 2027
| Kristi Noem Out as Homeland Sec Sceretary Before 2027 | | | |
| Yes | -120 | -120 | -120 |
| No | -120 | -120 | -120 |
Noem was once considered a future presidential contender. However, her management of the Department of Homeland Security has been riddled with missteps. She’s been under fire from both parties for her behavior. Storming out of hearings and refusing to answer questions are bad optics.
The deaths of Alex Pretti and Renee Good exposed serious failures on her watch. Many observers, myself included, were stunned that she survived the immediate fallout. Her public appearances pushing near non-existent election fraud have damaged her relationship with officials in the career department.
Two Americans are dead at the hands of Donald Trump and Kristi Noem’s DHS, and acting ICE Director Todd Lyons had nothing to say about their deaths.
His silence says everything the American people need to know about this agency – they are not here to protect our communities,… pic.twitter.com/XH6O06JYcB
— Rep. Tim Kennedy (@RepTimKennedy) February 11, 2026
The White House has reportedly grown frustrated with the numerous controversies. Noem’s exit is near. I’d be shocked if she made it to May. I agree with the oddsmakers and would wager on Noem being out before 2027 at -120 odds.
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