Despite the United States Presidential election being two-and-a-half years away, many are anxiously anticipating the vote. Maybe that’s because of dissatisfaction with current President Joe Biden or perhaps it’s just a fun bet to get in front of, but we’re forecasting what could happen come the 2024 election in this article. Specifically, we’re predicting which political party will win the 2024 Presidential election — not necessarily who that person will be.
Let’s begin with the current betting odds, shall we? Below is how current online sportsbooks have the political race pegged. To no one’s surprise, it’s a two-party race (sorry, Libertarians and Independents):
2024 US Presidential Party Betting Pick
Since there are really only two bets to make for 2024 US Presidential party, we might as well evaluate both options and offer the advantages and disadvantages facing each group at this very moment. It’s only then that we can make an educated prediction on who wins come November 2024. Let’s get right into it:
Let’s start with the good: obviously, the Democrats are the incumbents. In fact, they won the position with a record amount of votes as Biden’s 2020 total (81 million) broke Barrack Obama’s mark from 2008 (69 million). Historically speaking, presidents win second-term re-elections more than they lose them.
But that’s where the troubles begin to appear for the Dems — will Biden even run for re-election? He’ll turn 82 in November 2024, which is an unprecedented age to handle the duties of “Leader of the Free World” for another four years. And if not Biden, then who else for the Democrats? The party lacks any dynamic candidate currently, maybe aside from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (who even then, is quite polarizing).
But let’s assume Biden is healthy enough to run and voters can get over his age (which is the oldest in presidential history already). Will these same voters overlook Biden’s current performance in the Oval Office? Of course not, and if approval ratings are any indication, the general public is not content with Biden right now. His approval rating sags around 40 percent depending on the poll, meaning the overwhelming consensus is Biden is one of the least liked sitting presidents at this stage of his term (only a year and a month in).
Three years remain in Biden’s turn, which is plenty of time to turn public opinion around but it’ll be a tall order. As we write this, inflation is at 40-year record heights, gas prices continue to surge, and tensions remain with Russia and China. Unless Biden can get a handle on these problems, and fast, his rating could continue to plummet.
Given all this, we’re incredibly bearish on the Democrat’s chances to win the Oval Office in 2024. The pandemic, and Donald Trump’s mishandling of it, gave them a lifeline in 2020 — and they may need another black swan event to continue their presidential reign.
Whereas the Democrat’s weakness is a lack of “superstar” talent to run, no such problem exists for the Republicans. That’s actually the party’s biggest strength going into 2024 because both Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis have “cult” followings. And each has a different “card” to play in being the Republican nominee. Trump is the proven commodity, of course, as the 2016 winner. DeSantis, meanwhile, is the “up and comer” with a whole lot less baggage than Trump.
And if public perception continues to wane for Biden, the benefactors would obviously be Republicans. It’s human nature to want “change” when things are tough, and for many Americans, that’s right now and for the foreseeable future. Whether it’s Trump or DeSantis on the voting ticket, each could run with the idea of righting the ship — a narrative the Democrats can’t play since they control Congress and the White House.
That’s the pros on the Republican side, but what about the cons? Ironically, the party’s biggest strength is also its biggest weakness — and that’s Trump. The only cult bigger than pro-Trumpers are anti-Trumpers. As 2020 proved, voters will turn out in droves to bet against Trump, not necessarily vote with the opposing candidate. Trump as a nominee is the ultimate boom-or-bust scenario for the Republicans.
But as of this writing, we think the boom scenario plays out because we are indeed betting the Republicans to take the 2024 presidential chair. As we hinted before, we foresee more issues for the Dems from now until 2024, which will open the door for either Trump or DeSantis to win as the “anti-Biden” per se. Take the GOP at even-money odds and do so quickly because at this rate, odds on the futures bets will continue to lose value!
How To Bet 2024 US Election
Stop us if you’ve heard this: “everything is political now”? Welp, over the past few years, politics has started to infiltrate betting too. Today, many betting sites for politics exist and offer wagers for affairs across the world. But make no mistake about it, bets on the 2024 US Presidential election are most in demand. To find more bets surrounding the election, visit one of the bookmakers listed below. You’ll find up-to-date odds on the election from now until November 2024!