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Despite completing his first year without a single cabinet departure, a stark contrast to his turbulent first term, Trump’s second-term cabinet may face significant turnover as he reaches the one-year mark. A few names dominate speculation: Attorney General Pam Bondi, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Trump has privately criticized Bondi as “weak” and “ineffective,” frustrated by dismissed prosecutions of political adversaries and what he perceives as her failure to pursue his priorities aggressively. The botched rollout of the Jeffrey Epstein files further eroded her standing among Trump’s base.
Noem’s Department of Homeland Security has been identified as potentially seeing change, though specific concerns remain less publicized than those surrounding her colleagues.
Hegseth faces the most acute controversy. A Pentagon inspector general determined that he risked service members’ safety by sharing sensitive details of a Yemen strike via Signal, in violation of department policies. Though claiming “total exoneration,” the report found that his actions posed operational security risks and that he refused to cooperate with investigators fully.
The pattern mirrors Trump’s first-term volatility, suggesting the administration’s stability may prove temporary.
Before we take an early look at the contenders, here’s where to find the best 2026 Political Betting Sites and view all our latest free Politics betting picks.
Trump Cabinet: Next to leave post
| Next to Leave |  |  |  |
| Pam Bondi | +130 | +130 | +130 |
| Kristi Noem | +200 | +200 | +200 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | +300 | +300 | +300 |
| Pete Hegseth | +700 | +700 | +700 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Scott Bessent | +4000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| John Ratcliffe | +5500 | +5500 | +5500 |
| Marco Rubio | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Linda McMahon | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Lee Zeldin | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 |
Pam Bondi
Among these, Bondi appears most vulnerable. Trump has talked with allies about appointing special counsels at the Justice Department because he is so frustrated with what he sees as the slow progress of its work. His chief grievances center on failed cases against former FBI Director James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James.
The bungling of the Jeffrey Epstein files compounded her troubles. White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles said Bondi “whiffed” the rollout, and longtime Trump ally Steve Bannon reported that Bondi’s standing has eroded among Trump’s most loyal supporters.
Reports suggest she has been sidelined on key decisions, with some indictments proceeding without her knowledge. This pattern mirrors Trump’s relationships with past attorneys general, where perceived insufficient loyalty led to public humiliation and eventual departure.
President Trump has privately ramped up criticism of Attorney General Pam Bondi, describing her as weak and ineffective.
🔗: https://t.co/8Ox5AFaOwm pic.twitter.com/H6zVHh6tUM
— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) January 14, 2026
At +130, Bondi is favored to depart the cabinet first. Those odds indicate an implied probability of 43%. I do think it’s likely Bondi is the scapegoat for the entire Epstein files situation. I would wager on her being the next to leave the cabinet at this price.
Kristi Noem
Noem faces mounting pressure from multiple directions. Trump is considering removing Noem as secretary as early as January, according to White House and federal officials who told reporters Noem is on “very thin ice.” Stephen Miller, Trump’s deputy chief of staff, is leading the charge to remove Noem.
Her department has been plagued by controversies, including a bitter internal feud with border czar Tom Homan and repeated false claims about immigration enforcement statistics and individual cases. Democrats have launched impeachment proceedings, citing her department’s handling of ICE operations.
Kristi Noem: “We can't trust our government anymore.”
Bash: “You are the government.”
Noem: “Yes, that’s what I’m saying.”pic.twitter.com/J3JqAQFv0F
— No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen (@NoLieWithBTC) January 11, 2026
During congressional testimony, Noem incorrectly defined habeas corpus as “a constitutional right that the president has to be able to remove people from this country”, a fundamental misunderstanding of constitutional law that drew widespread criticism. Her performance has raised questions about competence alongside loyalty concerns.
At +200, Noem is another solid bet to leave the cabinet, I would also make this wager.
Tulsi Gabbard
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has drawn scrutiny for multiple controversies that could jeopardize her position. Earlier this year, Trump grew annoyed with Gabbard over her stance on Iran’s nuclear capability.
More recently, Gabbard withdrew the security clearances of potential witnesses in the Justice Department’s criminal probe of ex-spy chief John Brennan, undermining the investigation without notifying prosecutors in advance. A senior administration official said of Gabbard’s office, “they’ve treated this like a PR operation to get on Fox, and not a serious intel reform process.”
Breaking: Top U.S. intelligence officer Tulsi Gabbard was excluded from Venezuela plans. Just before the mission, she was on a beach in Hawaii, unaware of the details. https://t.co/of4FmeOLIv
— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) January 8, 2026
Her public disputes with U.S. intelligence assessments on Russia have raised concerns about the politicization of intelligence. At +300, Gabbard seems less likely to be the next to leave the cabinet, but would not rule out a later departure. I would have to pass on Gabbard.
Pete Hegseth
Hegseth faces the most acute controversy. Though claiming “total exoneration,” the report found that his actions created operational security risks and that he refused to fully cooperate with investigators.
The scandal has had lasting repercussions. In April, the White House began searching for a new Pentagon leader to replace Hegseth after reports emerged of a second unauthorized Signal chat. Former Defense Department spokesperson John Ullyot resigned and published an opinion piece calling the past month at the Pentagon a “full-blown meltdown” of infighting.
America is the greatest democracy because we stand up for each other’s rights. That’s why I sued Pete Hegseth—to defend my rights and the rights of servicemembers, veterans, and every American. pic.twitter.com/MQuIqpCdfd
— Senator Mark Kelly (@SenMarkKelly) January 14, 2026
Hegseth has also fired numerous senior military leaders, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, creating internal turmoil. His tenure has been marked by constant controversy and questions about his judgment, though Trump has publicly stood by him.
As tempting as it is to bet on Hegseth, I believe he stick around along as Trump allows, but I would have to pass even at this +700 price.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. faces a different set of challenges that could threaten his position. Kennedy has overseen a dramatic reshaping of HHS, including eliminating thousands of jobs and freezing or canceling billions of dollars in scientific research funding. His controversial vaccine policies and promotion of discredited health ideas have drawn bipartisan concern.
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appoints two new members to the CDC's vaccine advisory committee who have challenged broad medical consensus on vaccines and antidepressants in pregnancy. https://t.co/BounWaN22A
— NBC News (@NBCNews) January 14, 2026
Kennedy has fired or forced out several leaders at HHS, among them four directors at the National Institutes of Health, the FDA’s former vaccine chief, and a CDC director he had hired less than a month earlier. His department faced embarrassment when a major report cited studies that did not exist.
Kennedy’s contentious congressional hearings have featured combative exchanges where he told lawmakers they were “making stuff up,” raising questions about his ability to work effectively with Congress and maintain scientific credibility.
At +2500 Kennedy is a fun lotto you can wager on, but most likely will not end up in the green.
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