New Zealand favorites to take control in Week 5 of Rugby Championship

The 2022 Rugby Championship reaches a critical moment when the Week 5 fixtures take place later this week, here we look at the possible outcomes and bring you our free Rugby betting picks.

It’s quite frankly amazing that here we are going into Week 5 of the competition with all teams in with a chance of winning the title. Only one point separates the four teams. And if the fixtures taking place over the next two weekends are anything like what we’ve already witnessed, then we’re in for something special.

The current situation

Australia gets things underway at home to the All Blacks on Thursday, with Argentina hosting South Africa in the week’s second match.

In Week 4, the All Blacks thrashed Argentina 53-3, and in doing so, Ian Foster’s team went top of the championship table for the first time in this season’s competition. Before that, South Africa led after Week 1, with Argentina leading after the fixtures for both Week 2 and Week 3.

As things stand, New Zealand has 10 points. South Africa, Australia, and Argentina all have 9 points. All four teams have played four games, and all four have won two and lost two.

Who is the favorite to win the 2022 Rugby Championship?

The favorite to win the 2022 Rugby Championship with the top rugby betting sites is New Zealand. Ian Foster’s team is -200.

The second favorites are South Africa at +250, with the Australians (+750) third, and Argentina (+3500) in the final betting spot.

2022 Rugby Championship Winner BettingBetOnlineBovada
New Zealand-200-200
South Africa+250+225
Australia+750+750
Argentina+3300+3500

Before the competition started, South Africa looked to have the easier final two matches – they are both against Argentina. But such is the way the Pumas have played this year’s competition, that’s now not necessarily the case.

I dare say that Springboks’ head coach Rassie Erasmus would prefer these two fixtures, to back-to-back games against New Zealand. But if he loses one of both, he will be a man under serious pressure.

As for the All Blacks, they are facing Australia in back-to-back fixtures to complete their campaign.

Australia v New Zealand

The first of two Bledisloe Cup matches between these two sides takes place on Thursday night. The reason for a Thursday night start is to avoid the match clashing with the AFL preliminary finals, which take place in Australia this weekend.

As a result, we have an early Thursday morning start for this match, as a local kick-off time of 7.45 pm, gives us a 5.45 am Eastern Time start.

  • What; Australia v New Zealand – The Rugby Championship 2022
  • Where; Marvel Stadium, Docklands, Melbourne, Australia
  • When; Thursday, September 15th, 2022
  • Time; 5.45 am ET

Australia goes into this match on home soil as big outsiders. They are +359 with MyBookie on the Moneyline, with New Zealand at -625. The same sportsbook is giving Australia (-117) a +10.5 points start on the handicap. New Zealand, starting from -10.5 points, are -116.

This is a tricky decision to make. The bet is New Zealand, but they are way too short at -625. Will they win by 10.5 points and beat the handicap is the only question?

In the two games New Zealand has won this year they beat South Africa by 12, and Argentina by 50. So if we are guided by those stats, I think the only rugby betting pick to make is for New Zealand to win on the handicap.

New Zealand (-10.5)To Beat Australia
★★★★☆
-116
Bet now

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Argentina v South Africa

This game is expected to be a tighter contest than the Bledisloe Cup match. Hosts Argentina is the outsiders at +205 on the Moneyline, with South Africa -322. On the handicap line, Argentina has a +6.5 points start and is -121, with South Africa at -117 from -6.5 points.

  • What; Argentina v South Africa – The Rugby Championship 2022
  • Where; Estadio José Amalfitani, Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • When; Saturday, September 17th, 2022
  • Time; 3.10 pm ET

Jasper Wiese has already admitted that the Springboks are eyeing a bonus point win. That way if New Zealand doesn’t win with a bonus, the Springboks and All Blacks would be level on points heading into Week 6.

But such optimism might be seized upon by the Pumas, who will be aiming to win this match and defeat all three teams in the competition for the first time in history. Not to mention, the Pumas also have a chance of winning the whole thing!

It has been a competition of unbelievable shocks this year, and it would be foolish to dismiss any more taking place. But when competitions get to the business end, the teams with the experience of winning competitions and big matches come to the fore.

If New Zealand beats Australia and South Africa loses this, the competition is over for the current world champions. Therefore I feel the visitors will rise to the occasion and get the job done, so I’m going to back South Africa to win on the handicap for the second of my rugby betting picks.

South Africa (-6.5)To Beat Argentina
★★★★☆
-117
Bet now
Dean Etheridge

Dean has spent the last 10 years editing, and writing for his own football and cricket betting websites. He is passionate about sports and betting, and enjoys writing about both topics. In his spare time, Dean loves to spend time with his family, although he believes they just think he is their taxi driver!

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